Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ugh...UKMET is out to sea...I'd be shocked if the Euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its a good trend, but we need more digging for this to bomb ala Euro. The digging was significantly less when compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 on the gfs at hr 60, it has 2 lows? It looks like the 2nd low(the one futher south) robs the energy from the first one? yea, that's what i was kinda noticing.. it's like the vort splits over Mississippi and a piece heads into Florida and the whole thing elongates a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 on the gfs at hr 60, it has 2 lows? It looks like the 2nd low(the one futher south) robs the energy from the first one? I think so. Do people buy that 2-low solution, or is it convective feedback issues? Run looks ok though unless the GGEM and Euro go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 heres the link to the ukmet http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121700®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS and NAM could be understood, but to see the UKMET out to sea, uggh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 2 lows are wreaking havoc on the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ukmet looks 100s of miles out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This storm is going to be a New England Special Folks, I think the mid-atlantic south is going to get screwed on this one. The Euro today was a big hiccup, and will trend east at 0Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS and NAM could be understood, but to see the UKMET out to sea, uggh... GFS/NAM are fine. The UKMet is the troublesome part of the evening thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This storm is going to be a New England Special Folks, I think the mid-atlantic south is going to get screwed on this one. The Euro today was a big hiccup, and will trend east at 0Z.... Care to elaborate why you think the Euro was hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I feel good about the Euro and the trends today. Where are those Euro supporters now? The UKMet does concern me a little though. What caused it to go east of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS looked better at 0z almost identical in all aspects to the EURO, with the exception of the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I feel good about the Euro and the trends today. Where are those Euro supporters now? The UKMet does concern me a little though. What caused it to go east of the GFS? We won't know that until it comes in on the eWall in 45 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If Euro shows another 12Z result I will be extremely surprised. Perhaps we are expecting too much to get a decent snow in a mod-strong La Nina? An HECS, or even MECS I think, would be fairly unprecedented for places in the Mid-Atlantic and areas south of New England. Despite favorable cold, could it be that the entire system is just lacking all the ingredients we need? Certainly unprecedented events can take place, but the possibility is lower. Snow storms in this area require just about every factor to be ideal. Anyway I'm just floating this. Someone with more knowledge of the overall pattern may be able to better identify the issues. I know the pacific in general and perhaps other features are missing. What exactly can be helped at this point? The pacific will not improve in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GFS was so much more amplified at 00z compared to the 18z run, it was actually ridiculous to watch. The model literally is within an hour or two of bringing the surface low up the coast exactly like the 12z ECMWF. If you compare the two images below (first image 18z, second image 00z), you can see the height field shifting much more favorably and the shortwave is much more amplified. I am totally shocked that this run didn't show a major hit--but there's nothing we can do about that. Significant trend towards the Euro aloft, though. That's all we can say for now. 18z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f60.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f54.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I feel good about the Euro and the trends today. Where are those Euro supporters now? The UKMet does concern me a little though. What caused it to go east of the GFS? The GFS/NAM didn't concern me as H5 on the 00z GFS is actually very close to pulling off a big snow for the NYC-BOS corridor, but closes off the low a bit too late. The UKMET solution makes me a little more nervous about the 00z euro tonight, as often times the UKIE foretells the Euro solution. I have seen the UKMET throw in some strange scenarios, most of the time suppressed/SE of guidance, so it could be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I feel good about the Euro and the trends today. Where are those Euro supporters now? The UKMet does concern me a little though. What caused it to go east of the GFS? 4-D Var? But GGEM uses 4DVAR too, so we'll see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sometimes the UKMET has weird runs and solutions, maybe this is one of them. Hopefully the GGEM doesn't also show an out to sea low. Judging by the upper air patterns alone, the NAM and GFS improved markedly tonight from before, so that might lend credence to this being a burp UKMET run. But if the Euro and Canadian go east as well, it definitely raises concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this is more stressful than being at work. I need some popcorn. and I think I need sleep too. Good night all. Hope it's a good Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think the Euro will turn out somewhere between 12z and last night's 0z - the UKMET being out to sea doesn't really concern me much. H5 on the NAM and GFS looks good, though, so the trends are good so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z Ukie was basically OTS, too--that didn't affect the Euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sometimes the UKMET has weird runs and solutions, maybe this is one of them. Hopefully the GGEM doesn't also show an out to sea low. Judging by the upper air patterns alone, the NAM and GFS improved markedly tonight from before, so that might lend credence to this being a burp UKMET run. But if the Euro and Canadian go east as well, it definitely raises concern. Good summary. The NAM and GFS are both deeper at H5, but not to the extent of the Euro. I've seen the UKIE often veer wildly away from the mean guidance so let's hope this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GFS was so much more amplified at 00z compared to the 18z run, it was actually ridiculous to watch. The model literally is within an hour or two of bringing the surface low up the coast exactly like the 12z ECMWF. If you compare the two images below (first image 18z, second image 00z), you can see the height field shifting much more favorably and the shortwave is much more amplified. I am totally shocked that this run didn't show a major hit--but there's nothing we can do about that. Significant trend towards the Euro aloft, though. That's all we can say for now. 18z http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_18z/f60.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f54.gif It was the stupid fake lows the NAM and GFS created by bunching too much energy out ahead and feeding back. The same thing happened just prior to the 12/19 storm last year-the NAM especially kept keying in on energy out ahead of the main low which destroyed the baroclinicity and basically robbed the main storm dry. The GFS also has a bias of keying in too much on energy out ahead of the main shortwave. I'm not that concerned about the strung out solutions right now on both models. The 500mb presentation improved markedly, which is what I was concerned about. The feedback issues will likely work themselves out by tomorrow night hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Care to elaborate why you think the Euro was hiccup? The 12z Euro is the only model that shows the shortwave digging that far to the south and the result was the "bomb" scenario for everyone. The trend has been for all the other models to show the shortwave being less amplfied and therefore the storm doesn't get going until its north of 40N. I think the 0Z EURO will be key, and if it shifts further east (which I think it will) it's time to put this one to rest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS looked better at 0z almost identical in all aspects to the EURO, with the exception of the surface... It might be the snow weenie in me... but I just cannot by the paltry qpf by the gfs this run...flow aloft backing nicely, 700rh fields look good...but very little results....this reminds me of at least one of our big hits last year...we were all laughing at the GFS and NAM playing catchup at the surface....I hope thats what we'll see again and right now that is what I am leaning toward...its my story and I'm sticking to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lets say hypothetically the EURO trends back east like the other models, questions for you guys; Would it be safe to say that the old "king" euro is dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good summary. The NAM and GFS are both deeper at H5, but not to the extent of the Euro. I've seen the UKIE often veer wildly away from the mean guidance so let's hope this is one of those times. I'd be much more concerned about a bad trend if the NAM/GFS worsened aloft or stayed the same. I don't know if either model has been upgraded to minimize feedback since last year, but the same exact bias is seemingly showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/NAM are fine. The UKMet is the troublesome part of the evening thus far. Only if you assume the s/w will come in stronger and sharpen up the trof a bit sooner. Mid and upper level charts not as good as advertised. Basically just a moderately flat wave passing off the Va coast. That spells ocean gale unless we get some help here. Tuesday's 12z GFS and today's 12z Euro were among the few exceptions to a pattern of model runs that missed or grazed the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It was the stupid fake lows the NAM and GFS created by bunching too much energy out ahead and feeding back. The same thing happened just prior to the 12/19 storm last year-the NAM especially kept keying in on energy out ahead of the main low which destroyed the baroclinicity and basically robbed the main storm dry. The GFS also has a bias of keying in too much on energy out ahead of the main shortwave. I'm not that concerned about the strung out solutions right now on both models. The 500mb presentation improved markedly, which is what I was concerned about. The feedback issues will likely work themselves out by tomorrow night hopefully. I remember when the 6z NAM at around 30-36 hours out went out to sea, and everyone committed suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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