am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It won't be a double-barrel low, the NAM only makes it appear that way because it creates random vortmaxes that create a fake pseudo-low and heavy precip, which compete with the main low and cause the whole complex to be broad and weak. By tomorrow night it'll probably lose enough of these to make it into the powerful storm near the coast it would show without the random vorts. Just going by the upper air and taking those vorts out, it would likely be a bomb. I agree. Great post. The only thing I would add is there is still going to be a tight W-E gradient, so a 50 mi change in the track is still going to have huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Which ain't too shabby. From my experience tracking storms, the NAM out of all the other models has the most fluctuations past 48 hrs. Im looking for the GFS and GGEM to hold or improve their 12z solutions. ECM I'd expect to be a bit east from its all out major i-95 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Listening to the show is the consensus that if I'm from NYC I don't need to watch this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Listening to the show is the consensus that if I'm from NYC I don't need to watch this? I'm listening to the show and they're saying that the NAM's convective feedback is ruining the final solution at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Im looking for the GFS and GGEM to hold or improve their 12z solutions. ECM I'd expect to be a bit east from its all out major i-95 snow. The best chance for the really crippling accumulations has to still be eastern Long Island (from Islip east) and central/eastern New England. The Euro at 12z was likely the "perfect" setup if everything came together. More than likely it ends up a hair east of that. I doubt it gets to the point where Boston has to worry about rain. But most of us still get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Listening to the show is the consensus that if I'm from NYC I don't need to watch this? No...... NYC is still very much in the game 12z Euro had 15-20 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM double barrel solution seems questionable to me. The pattern argues for one, more consolidated/stronger area of low pressure. Either way the QPF shield is about 100-150 miles NW of the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If this plays out it's the 3rd year in a row with significant accumulating snow on December 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when does the rgem and the 00z gfs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when does the rgem and the 00z gfs come out? Rgem is out to 36. GFS starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when does the rgem and the 00z gfs come out? Within the next 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when does the rgem and the 00z gfs come out? Not sure about the rgem but the gfs is about 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 when does the rgem and the 00z gfs come out? rgem starts a little after 10 - GFS in about 10 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No...... NYC is still very much in the game 12z Euro had 15-20 for NYC I think everyone on I-95 is still in the game for some decent snows, especially the city lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 48 H RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 PLayers taking the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS has begun. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_000l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS has begun. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_000l.gif FWIW the GFS initialized the southern s/w a lot weaker than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No offense to anyone, but why do you guys look at the RGEM? IMO, it is the worst, by far, of the models regularly posted here (except the JMA/KMA, which are Ji specials) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 DT brings such a great atmosphere to these storms. I LOVE it. He just said "At sometime between 10:55 to 11:30 someone will blow their head off" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 can already tell it is slightly more amped up at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 FWIW the GFS initialized the southern s/w a lot weaker than the NAM. Probably because of its lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 through 21, s/w a good bit stronger on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No offense to anyone, but why do you guys look at the RGEM? IMO, it is the worst, by far, of the models regularly posted here (except the JMA/KMA, which are Ji specials) K sorry but I am confused, isn't the RGEM equivalent to the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No offense to anyone, but why do you guys look at the RGEM? IMO, it is the worst, by far, of the models regularly posted here (except the JMA/KMA, which are Ji specials) Just looking for trends it has proven useful occasionally. I was also posting for those on their mobile phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 deff a lot more amplified through hr 27, s/w stornger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Alright folks, here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 deff a lot more amplified through hr 27, s/w stornger. totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Let the pros give the play by play ! keep the chatter to a minimum until the run is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 K sorry but I am confused, isn't the RGEM equivalent to the GGEM? RGEM:GGEM::NAM:GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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