tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 here are the 3z srefs accum precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey Tombo, I wasn't here tonight for the Euro, but I have heard quite negative things about the run. How far off the coast was it? And what was the reason for the shift? Thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:31 AM, tombo82685 said: cya at 12z Thankfully I have a final when the 12z runs start coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:40 AM, iverson3 said: Hey Tombo, I wasn't here tonight for the Euro, but I have heard quite negative things about the run. How far off the coast was it? And what was the reason for the shift? Thank you in advance. About as bad as it possibly could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:40 AM, iverson3 said: Hey Tombo, I wasn't here tonight for the Euro, but I have heard quite negative things about the run. How far off the coast was it? And what was the reason for the shift? Thank you in advance. it was a good 300 or so miles off the coast at our latitude...the one main reason i saw was the s/w was anemic and was astonishing how much it was less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL at ETA5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:43 AM, Sn0waddict said: LOL at ETA5 i bet that is throwing the mean off big time on the precip probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Quote i bet that is throwing the mean off big time on the precip probs. what about the ones that arent even on the map? lol with no precip anywhere....that could be throwing it off as well, but all in all, its probably just averaging it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Check and mate. Over lets look to the Miller B clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:48 AM, Ericjcrash said: Check and mate. Over lets look to the Miller B clipper Check mate for the M/A unfortunately, only god knows if the model have another swing for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:48 AM, CooL said: what about the ones that arent even on the map? lol with no precip anywhere....that could be throwing it off as well, but all in all, its probably just averaging it Can't get any less than 0.0, but having a 3" liquid member in there will skew the average tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:50 AM, William said: Ended up a bit worse... I saw some good signs in there..it was better developed with the CCB precip, it was slower, northern stream was better. Ultimately though it appears we are headed towards a trend towards a much weaker southern stream. And without that, we won't get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Unreal amount of people in this thread for 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:52 AM, earthlight said: Unreal amount of people in this thread for 4am 's like myself still holding onto some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 For every 10 weenies there is 1 weather enthusiast, who is excited?..this guy. On 12/17/2010 at 8:52 AM, earthlight said: Unreal amount of people in this thread for 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 By the way, 84 hr NAM has this as a shallow warm core system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 cheers to everyone in this thread, even though it was disappointing it was a good time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Going to bed...but im going to go out on a limb and say we will see some changes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:52 AM, earthlight said: Unreal amount of people in this thread for 4am Sadly finals have me studying all night. Not even sure if I'm going to go to bed tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 9:04 AM, Sn0waddict said: Sadly finals have me studying all night. Not even sure if I'm going to go to bed tonight Me too, but my class is at 12:30...im gonna get a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:59 AM, earthlight said: Going to bed...but im going to go out on a limb and say we will see some changes tomorrow. At this point thats about as certain as the sun rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And change comes tomorrow. On 12/17/2010 at 9:07 AM, earthlight said: Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lol, this sounds like Obama's campaign slogan all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This event continues to look alot like the 12/27/04 event where it was a miss by about 75-100 miles for most parts of coastal NJ/NYC/western LI and CT...the twin forks area saw up to 8 inches in some places....around 2-4 inches still fell in parts of the 5 boroughs, Nassau, and western Suffolk due to a strong upper trough behind the system as well as a very brief norlun feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:32 AM, earthlight said: The PV is so much further NW and the s/w over MT/UT that dives into the OH Valley amplifies the height field. The changes are once again radical beyond belief as soon as 48 hrs out. Wow. lol this really is one big nightmare-- the margin of error is still on huge on every component-- as soon as you fix one leak, up springs another, and after that the one you thought you fixed is broke again. You have to have a sense of humor about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 9:09 AM, SnowGoose69 said: This event continues to look alot like the 12/27/04 event where it was a miss by about 75-100 miles for most parts of coastal NJ/NYC/western LI and CT...the twin forks area saw up to 8 inches in some places....around 2-4 inches still fell in parts of the 5 boroughs, Nassau, and western Suffolk due to a strong upper trough behind the system as well as a very brief norlun feature. That was the year snow kept backing in off the ocean east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:57 AM, NittanyWx said: By the way, 84 hr NAM has this as a shallow warm core system.. Who knows, maybe it will develop a warm core-- that would help amplify it and pull it in westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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