earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 This run is so much worse with the southern stream trough..but it's also better w/ the N stream so the net result isn't that putrid aloft..but probably will wind up well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The PV is like 150 miles further northwest this run and the heights are higher on the east coast because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Every feature on this run is radically different by hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:16 AM, William said: Could be wrong, but I think 6z NAM will be a bit better then 0z...we'll see... I'm seeing this as well. The surface characteristics might be handled better on a meso scale model like the NAM. Globals don't handle situations like that as well. Wonder if the NAM is picking up better sampling off the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think it's going to be much better--but that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll tell you one thing..the n stream is helping big time...otherwise this run would have been a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Polar Vortex moved 200+ miles northwest compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 HPC has the 1.00" isohyet over S.E. Mass for Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Once again, as in a similar case to many overnight runs the past few days..if the southern stream shortwave were as as strong as it was 18 or 00z, this run would be coming right up the coast. The n stream is much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 1008mb low is off the coast of OBX at 57 hrs..but the H5 orientation blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's literally a few hours away from a phase again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 WHat a bizarre run. precip further nw but h5 blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LM Quote It's literally a few hours away from a phase again Hour 57 gives us precip...MAN, this is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nope, No way am I getting myself back into this. Must maintain low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The H5 vort is hours away from a phase and because it's just off, the vort elongates and pushes the entire surface reflection east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i dont understand this one, bit granted the northern stream is better, but the whole h5 depiction is less amplified, yet we got the same result. The northern stream must solely be doing the work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 The storm is also much slower this run...the low pressure is still off the Carolinas at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:30 AM, Sn0waddict said: Nope, No way am I getting myself back into this. Must maintain low expectations. cya at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:30 AM, tombo82685 said: i dont understand this one, bit granted the northern stream is better, but the whole h5 depiction is less amplified, yet we got the same result. The northern stream must solely be doing the work The PV is so much further NW and the s/w over MT/UT that dives into the OH Valley amplifies the height field. The changes are once again radical beyond belief as soon as 48 hrs out. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:32 AM, earthlight said: The PV is so much further NW and the s/w over MT/UT that dives into the OH Valley amplifies the height field. The changes are once again radical beyond belief as soon as 48 hrs out. Wow. Handling of this has been terrible. Vast changes aloft every run. Hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro ens back up the op fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:32 AM, earthlight said: The PV is so much further NW and the s/w over MT/UT that dives into the OH Valley amplifies the height field. The changes are once again radical beyond belief as soon as 48 hrs out. Wow. I mean, it's not even close to the 0z. Each successive run has had wild swings at h5 for the past 36 hours..it's comical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is really getting ridiculous, something is rotten in Denmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Quote LM Hour 57 gives us precip...MAN, this is so close My fault, it does not give us precip. But this run trended in the right direction, but we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't wait to hear from the muni's tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 To be honest it's not worth much considering the way the models have been handling things. On 12/17/2010 at 8:33 AM, tombo82685 said: euro ens back up the op fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 This run may very well hit SNE post 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:35 AM, earthlight said: This run may very well hit SNE post 72 hrs 0z nam hit them pretty good also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 8:35 AM, Rtd208 said: To be honest it's not worth much considering the way the models have been handling things. yea i know, just posting the info. The ens imho are worthless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We do of course appreciate the info buddy. On 12/17/2010 at 8:38 AM, tombo82685 said: yea i know, just posting the info. The ens imho are worthless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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