Collegestudent11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:07 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 72 sub 1004 low 350 miles or so east of nj Well for snow lovers that cannot be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't remember a time the models were so bad ...so different each run. Amazing the last storm and this one, the modeling has been just terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 78 light snow on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, famartin said: I cancelled my flight. It's coming back west folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, famartin said: Its over... I cancelled my flight. Seriously? I hope they gave you all your money back. Now that you cancelled, watch this come west tomorrow We're actually still more than 48 hours away from this, but the window is rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, ravensrule said: Looks like we will not be needing any temporary moderators . Well, I meant my real job, but yes, that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least I saved the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:07 AM, NittanyWx said: The lack of consistency throughout this has been pretty unbelievable. I think it sets an all time record. The 12hr ecmwf forecast in the desert sw was poorer (as in too deep with the trof) than either the gfs and nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, jlewis1111 said: much precip get back into va nc? none in VA...a little on the coast of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:06 AM, TwcMan said: this may become a nowcasting event...something the models will never be able to ahold of...not even 12-24 hours before the storm lol nah...s/w is in a well sampled region...all 3 4DVAR models are a disaster.... here's a gif to close us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:02 AM, tombo82685 said: this is absolutely shocking how different this is from 12z at h5, unbelievable So much for the euro being deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:06 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 66 has 2 1004 seperate areas of low pressure 100 miles from each other about 200-250 miles east of hse So obviously the Gulf wave is coming into play again and screwing it up. But if the flow is that flat as you advertised, it might not even matter. We have 12z tomorrow and maybe 0z tomorrow PM to fix this and correct west. It's probably 95% chance of being over now, but if the models are still like this tomorrow night it's almost 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, famartin said: Its over... I cancelled my flight. That was our problem all along...now at least we have a fighting chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am actually laughing about how bad this is... The SNE crew must be on the floor right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I assume the dc storm at 132 is gone too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:09 AM, am19psu said: Well, I meant my real job, but yes, that too Two reasons i never went into meteorology one is im not smart enough and two i could never deal with this as my full time job. I feel for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get ready for a blizzard. lol On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, famartin said: Its over... I cancelled my flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:10 AM, Rainshadow said: I think it sets an all time record. The 12hr ecmwf forecast in the desert sw was poorer (as in too deep with the trof) than either the gfs and nam. I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, Isotherm said: These model solutions are so erratic it's hilarious (in a very annoying way) but at the same time shows the complexity of this event. We can't buy two model runs in a row with similar outputs, which also tells me it's not time to give up on this just yet. At least not until we have a full cycle of similar solutions for God's sake! It makes me wonder how something like Feb 78 was forecasted well from a week away over 30 years ago. That was even more extreme, we went from a really horrid forecast in the Jan 78 east coast blizzard three weeks prior to that, to possibly the most well modeled major east coast snowstorm of that era in Feb 78....and back to bad forecast with PD1 the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:07 AM, am19psu said: I can't help but laugh at how silly my job is I can't wait to walk into the office tomorrow to check the 30 odd voicemails I will no doubt receive from our clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:11 AM, Ji said: I assume the dc storm at 132 is gone too It's not out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:10 AM, Zir0b said: nah...s/w is in a well sampled region...all 3 4DVAR models are a disaster.... here's a gif to close us out ur def one of my favorite posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:08 AM, Isotherm said: These model solutions are so erratic it's hilarious (in a very annoying way) but at the same time shows the complexity of this event. We can't buy two model runs in a row with similar outputs, which also tells me it's not time to give up on this just yet. At least not until we have a full cycle of similar solutions for God's sake! It almost makes you wonder why we have these models in the first place. 60 hours out, there's as much flipflopping as you would expect 180 hours out. Maybe now we should just toss darts at a wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:11 AM, NittanyWx said: I can't wait to walk into the office tomorrow to check the 30 odd voicemails I will no doubt receive from our clients. End of the year vacation days to kill FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hr 90 has a sub 992 300 miles east of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:11 AM, earthlight said: I've never seen anything like this before, I know people are going to hold on to the "back and forth" idea and hope it can come back..but with everything sampled I think this is pretty much it. It just so happened to end on the wrong flip. or flop. I still think 2/6/10 was worse John, but this could be considered even more extreme in the sense that its going from major hit for everyone to basically no snow for anyone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is s situation where the 18z runs can give a nice heads up for 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just a reminder...for those that feel the need to just vent...this thread is open 24-7 in OT....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:10 AM, jm1220 said: But if the flow is that flat as you advertised, it might not even matter. It doesn't matter at all. The shortwave was ridiculously overamplified by the 12z run at 12 hours. The initialization of this run showed that right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 On 12/17/2010 at 6:12 AM, jm1220 said: It almost makes you wonder why we have these models in the first place. 60 hours out, there's as much flipflopping as you would expect 180 hours out. Maybe now we should just toss darts at a wall? I was starting to think that... it almost seems like forecasting at 72 hours+ out is not much better than it was years ago, I'm talking the '90s, not WAY back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.