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1/23-24 clipper


Ian

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Very similar characteristics on the 18z NAM and 19z RAP. Snow breaks out around Richmond in the late evening hours, then fills in to the north overnight. Reflectivity maxes in the DC area around 7/8z. Both also have the back edge holding on until morning hours along the Potomac.

 

Got any snazzy radars to show us?

 

Only post the most insane ones, please.

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The Indiana radar loop shows snow bands that developed from almost nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=IND&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Not really nothing though. Area of vorticity is currently dropping into nern MN. The lift out in front is starting to do it's thing. Look at 700. Corresponds nicely with radar. 

 

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stop being positive. You are ruining your reputation

 

It's easy to be positive when it's frigid and you set the bar low.  The RAP has looked really nice the last couple of runs and now the NAM looks OK too.  There will be people that this storm disappoints as the band that sets up will probably be fairly narrow. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-240500-

/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.130124T0500Z-130124T1400Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON

358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

9 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20

MPH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND

SLIPPERY. ANY SNOW COVERED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH

THE MORNING RUSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED

VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

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What do you think about snow growth?...dendrites and 1/2 mi viz in the good bands?....I am thinking anyone who actually gets .10+ liquid eq has a good chance of mod snow or even +SN at some point...

 

I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2".  I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows.   Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. 

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I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2".  I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows.   Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. 

Wes, SREF MPV probabilities were maxing over 90% at 850mb which is really impressive. But >50% exits from 3z to 12z basically at 850mb. Things were less impressive at 700mb. Seems like anyone in this band could see 15:1 possibly 20:1 type ratios and quickly cover up. The shear would also indicate that it could possibly sit over someone unlike my event which basically was perpendicular. Someone very close to DC if not DC itself is going to see 2"+ right? Of course, it will be very localized.

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Wes, SREF MPV probabilities were maxing over 90% at 850mb which is really impressive. But >50% exits from 3z to 12z basically at 850mb. Things were less impressive at 700mb. Seems like anyone in this band could see 15:1 possibly 20:1 type ratios and quickly cover up. The shear would also indicate that it could possibly sit over someone unlike my event which basically was perpendicular. Someone very close to DC if not DC itself is going to see 2"+ right? Of course, it will be very localized.

 

I think lower so md/northern neck is a good bet for a localized 3"

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