MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very similar characteristics on the 18z NAM and 19z RAP. Snow breaks out around Richmond in the late evening hours, then fills in to the north overnight. Reflectivity maxes in the DC area around 7/8z. Both also have the back edge holding on until morning hours along the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very similar characteristics on the 18z NAM and 19z RAP. Snow breaks out around Richmond in the late evening hours, then fills in to the north overnight. Reflectivity maxes in the DC area around 7/8z. Both also have the back edge holding on until morning hours along the Potomac. Got any snazzy radars to show us? Only post the most insane ones, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LWX says in their AFD they will wait for the 18z models before issuing WWA's later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Indiana radar loop shows snow bands that developed from almost nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=IND&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Indiana radar loop shows snow bands that developed from almost nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=IND&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Not really nothing though. Area of vorticity is currently dropping into nern MN. The lift out in front is starting to do it's thing. Look at 700. Corresponds nicely with radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 stop being positive. You are ruining your reputation It's easy to be positive when it's frigid and you set the bar low. The RAP has looked really nice the last couple of runs and now the NAM looks OK too. There will be people that this storm disappoints as the band that sets up will probably be fairly narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My god, everyone has turned into Ji. Over 1" or less of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like N MD get grazed at best. I won't stay up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For winterwx, but hotlinked because full reply isn't working for me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My god, everyone has turned into Ji. Over 1" or less of snow. Well we're not as good a forecaster or as smart as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Me Gusta Mucho 4km CONUS nested NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-240500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.130124T0500Z-130124T1400Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH. * TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. ANY SNOW COVERED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What do you think about snow growth?...dendrites and 1/2 mi viz in the good bands?....I am thinking anyone who actually gets .10+ liquid eq has a good chance of mod snow or even +SN at some point... I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2". I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows. Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Me Gusta Mucho 4km CONUS nested NAM. 12Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z run? 18z. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WWA for a possible inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Couldn't our area at least act tough? Do we really need a WWA for 'around an inch'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2". I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows. Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. Wes, SREF MPV probabilities were maxing over 90% at 850mb which is really impressive. But >50% exits from 3z to 12z basically at 850mb. Things were less impressive at 700mb. Seems like anyone in this band could see 15:1 possibly 20:1 type ratios and quickly cover up. The shear would also indicate that it could possibly sit over someone unlike my event which basically was perpendicular. Someone very close to DC if not DC itself is going to see 2"+ right? Of course, it will be very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As pathetic as its been, this alone is a welcome sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 sticks on contact and wont melt for morning rush Ah, makes sense. Sorry, I'm so use to not driving into work, I forgot that a dusting can cause issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 sticks on contact and wont melt for morning rush Exactly. Almost 100 cars crashed into each other in ohio 2 days ago from a snow squall. 1" on frozen roads can be very hazardous here. Much moreso than 3"+ falling @ 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very light snow starting to fall here. mostly just drifting around with the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 20z RAP has me starting by 11pm.....and looks pretty good...every model data suggests backbuilding so hopefully there isn't radar suicide early That tail is really interesting. Running hires nam loop shows it even better. Looks like pretty good rates even if they are relatively short lived. Should be fun even if it's only an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And even here, it was a dusting a few years ago that iced up roads for morning rush hour, and a really terrible half-inch (0.4" at DCA) on 1/18/2000 that caused Commutageddon-type traffic jams for evening rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WWA for a possible inch? They kinda have to...its so cold, that if it gets on the roads, they could get icy. ETA...sorry Katie, should have read on further. Didn't mean to be a chorus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They kinda have to...its so cold, that if it gets on the roads, they could get icy. Matt beat you too it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt beat you too it I couldn't even get my edit apology up fast enough...(sad face) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Getting on the plane here in Columbus Ohio...no snow here yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here's a couple of snippets from a Post article about that 1/18/2000 0.4" disaster: "Nineteen Prince George's County school buses carrying children homeward were still on the roads at 11:20 pm..." "Thirty school buses also were stuck in traffic in Montgomery County at 9 p.m...." "Traffic was still creeping or not moving at all on some major arteries in the city and the Maryland suburbs after 11 last night.....police closed winding East-West Highway between Connecticut and Wisconsin avenues at the height of the crunch. In the District, 20 minute commutes degenerated into multi-hour ordeals. Traffic along Georgia Avenue NW, one of the main routes in and out of the city, was at a standstill for most of the afternoon and evening." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They kinda have to...its so cold, that if it gets on the roads, they could get icy. ETA...sorry Katie, should have read on further. Didn't mean to be a chorus... WTH? Actually no they dont. There might be an inch in some spots, but most places that are in the advisory are forecasted to get a a half inch or less! Read Mount Holly AFD for comparison. Same accums predicted in eastern MD and DE... up to an inch, No advisory. The criteria is 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.