mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I even keeps some precip going in narrow band through 12Z. It's a nice run new srefs have some qpf in the area through 15z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM is diggin the area between dc and ric and wes' house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's a long lasting clipper...looks like flurries and snow showers going into the late morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ocean City should get a nice 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very similar characteristics on the 18z NAM and 19z RAP. Snow breaks out around Richmond in the late evening hours, then fills in to the north overnight. Reflectivity maxes in the DC area around 7/8z. Both also have the back edge holding on until morning hours along the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Very similar characteristics on the 18z NAM and 19z RAP. Snow breaks out around Richmond in the late evening hours, then fills in to the north overnight. Reflectivity maxes in the DC area around 7/8z. Both also have the back edge holding on until morning hours along the Potomac. Got any snazzy radars to show us? Only post the most insane ones, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LWX says in their AFD they will wait for the 18z models before issuing WWA's later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Indiana radar loop shows snow bands that developed from almost nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=IND&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Indiana radar loop shows snow bands that developed from almost nothing: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=IND&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Not really nothing though. Area of vorticity is currently dropping into nern MN. The lift out in front is starting to do it's thing. Look at 700. Corresponds nicely with radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 stop being positive. You are ruining your reputation It's easy to be positive when it's frigid and you set the bar low. The RAP has looked really nice the last couple of runs and now the NAM looks OK too. There will be people that this storm disappoints as the band that sets up will probably be fairly narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My god, everyone has turned into Ji. Over 1" or less of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like N MD get grazed at best. I won't stay up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For winterwx, but hotlinked because full reply isn't working for me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My god, everyone has turned into Ji. Over 1" or less of snow. Well we're not as good a forecaster or as smart as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well we're not as good a forecaster or as smart as you What do you think about snow growth?...dendrites and 1/2 mi viz in the good bands?....I am thinking anyone who actually gets .10+ liquid eq has a good chance of mod snow or even +SN at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Me Gusta Mucho 4km CONUS nested NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-052>056-501-502-240500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.130124T0500Z-130124T1400Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH. * TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. ANY SNOW COVERED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What do you think about snow growth?...dendrites and 1/2 mi viz in the good bands?....I am thinking anyone who actually gets .10+ liquid eq has a good chance of mod snow or even +SN at some point... I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2". I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows. Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Me Gusta Mucho 4km CONUS nested NAM. 12Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z run? 18z. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WWA for a possible inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Couldn't our area at least act tough? Do we really need a WWA for 'around an inch'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z run? the 18z hi res looks pretty good to put you and me in snow from 1am to 9am....i hope it comes in earlier....the best banding never gets to you, but gets close so I imagine would put you in decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WWA for a possible inch? Couldn't our area at least act tough? Do we really need a WWA for 'around an inch'? sticks on contact and wont melt for morning rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I looked at the NAM vert vels and temps where the snow growth looked like it should be using coolwx products which are less than optimal but it did look to me that when the strongest uvv was going on there would be dendrites. The bottom line is if someone can squeeze out .10 they have a decent chance of getting 2". I suspect most of us will see loess than .10 but who knows. Not much moisture to work with but really strong forcing so we might be able to get o moderate rates and visiblity within a narrow band. No telling where that would set up but I don't see the rates staying high for very long. Wes, SREF MPV probabilities were maxing over 90% at 850mb which is really impressive. But >50% exits from 3z to 12z basically at 850mb. Things were less impressive at 700mb. Seems like anyone in this band could see 15:1 possibly 20:1 type ratios and quickly cover up. The shear would also indicate that it could possibly sit over someone unlike my event which basically was perpendicular. Someone very close to DC if not DC itself is going to see 2"+ right? Of course, it will be very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As pathetic as its been, this alone is a welcome sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 20z RAP has me starting by 11pm.....and looks pretty good...every model data suggests backbuilding so hopefully there isn't radar suicide early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wes, SREF MPV probabilities were maxing over 90% at 850mb which is really impressive. But >50% exits from 3z to 12z basically at 850mb. Things were less impressive at 700mb. Seems like anyone in this band could see 15:1 possibly 20:1 type ratios and quickly cover up. The shear would also indicate that it could possibly sit over someone unlike my event which basically was perpendicular. Someone very close to DC if not DC itself is going to see 2"+ right? Of course, it will be very localized. I think lower so md/northern neck is a good bet for a localized 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 sticks on contact and wont melt for morning rush Ah, makes sense. Sorry, I'm so use to not driving into work, I forgot that a dusting can cause issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 sticks on contact and wont melt for morning rush Exactly. Almost 100 cars crashed into each other in ohio 2 days ago from a snow squall. 1" on frozen roads can be very hazardous here. Much moreso than 3"+ falling @ 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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