usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 oh now you're mentioning 2". weenie. that's probably a reach but someone should get over an inch between here and Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 that's probably a reach but someone should get over an inch between here and Richmond.you forget how snow weenies measure. book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LWX going big! .INITIAL THINKING IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAYBE ISSUED TO COVER A SNOWY THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It will be interesting to see how right they are. My feeling is that with that strong of vort someone will get sow east of the mountains though it probably won't be as widespread as on the NAM but that there probably will be a narrow band where people see over an inch, maybe even two if they are lucky. Not sure where the band will set up. The problem for us with the higher res models is that they are further south. The southern half of VA does ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The problem for us with the higher res models is that they are further south. The southern half of VA does ok. yep, it seems like like whatever snow is to fall this miserable winter will be to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LWX going big! .INITIAL THINKING IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAYBE ISSUED TO COVER A SNOWY THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. Not really... protocol now requires them to issue it if they believe snow may mess with the morning or evening rush in DC But you missed the rest THE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTI INDIANA WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN VA SOMETIME BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW BANDING WITH A TIGHT 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...STRONG JET DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROF...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AND GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE BAND...PERHAPS FROM HARRISONBURG TO STAFFORD AND CALVERT COUNTIES WHILE THE GFS HAS IT WORKING INTO THE DC METRO AREA. THE ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. WE WILL FURTHER EVALUATE AFTER THE 12Z MODELS COME IN...INITIAL THINKING IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TO COVER A SNOWY THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The problem for us with the higher res models is that they are further south. The southern half of VA does ok. Clippers are weird though. Max precip is always poorly defined. Not saying anything is wrong because the S does appear to do better. Things can change quicky as the precip breaks out and area of max lift is well defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM gives BWI .06" from the clipper with 850 temps at -18.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM gives BWI .06" from the clipper with 850 temps at -18.8C DCA is .07" and IAD is .05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like I should gas up my leaf blower. Should take about 2 minutes to clear the driveway and walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Clippers are weird though. Max precip is always poorly defined. Not saying anything is wrong because the S does appear to do better. Things can change quicky as the precip breaks out and area of max lift is well defined. I think that is a good point, also because their higher resolution tends to concentrate the precipitation areas, the higher resolution models often actually lost in term of equitable threat scores versus a slightly lower resolution version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM gives BWI .06" from the clipper with 850 temps at -18.8C [weenie]RATIOS!!!![/weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Deform band should setup just north of dc. Thinking rockville-columbia line. Exactly my thoughts. +1 9z SREFs are much more bullish about the clipper. 5 members spitting out 0.1" or more for Baltimore. Each member has at least SOMETHING for Baltimore, with most around 0.03-0.05". Maybe someone can check BUFKIT, but 0.06-0.07" should be sufficient to get an inch of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 how coincidental Oh it's no coincidence mitch....I have 2 red tags agreeing with my weenie dreams....book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Exactly my thoughts. +1 9z SREFs are much more bullish about the clipper. 5 members spitting out 0.1" or more for Baltimore. Each member has at least SOMETHING for Baltimore, with most around 0.03-0.05". Maybe someone can check BUFKIT, but 0.06-0.07" should be sufficient to get an inch of powder. 9z SREFs 12 hr precip from hrs 18-30 have a 0.1 QPF bullseye just south of DC near EZF into S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Exactly my thoughts. +1 9z SREFs are much more bullish about the clipper. 5 members spitting out 0.1" or more for Baltimore. Each member has at least SOMETHING for Baltimore, with most around 0.03-0.05". Maybe someone can check BUFKIT, but 0.06-0.07" should be sufficient to get an inch of powder. NAM Bufkit from 6z gave BWI .3" snow with .o3" qpf but GFS Bufkit gave BWI 1.2" of snow with like .07" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty sad when there's excitement over an inch of snow so fine that you can stomp your foot and clear your entire sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Oh it's no coincidence mitch....I have 2 red tags agreeing with my weenie dreams....book it! I'm not one of them, I'm looking for the band to set up somewhere between DCA and Richmond. Trouble with clippers is there will be prople who get passed over while others get in the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not one of them, I'm looking for the band to set up somewhere between DCA and Richmond. Trouble with clippers is there will be prople who get passed over while others get in the band. Considering your latitude...of course...but this time I gotta go with WxUSAF > Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not one of them, I'm looking for the band to set up somewhere between DCA and Richmond. Trouble with clippers is there will be prople who get passed over while others get in the band. and the sad lesson learned this year is the north trend doesn't work for DCA/BWI if it would mean a snowier forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Considering your latitude...of course...but this time I gotta go with WxUSAF > Wes you're not accusing Wes of having a bad latitude toward snow are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 and the sad lesson learned this year is the north trend doesn't work for DCA/BWI if it would mean a snowier forecast come on mitch.....we have over 1,000 minutes for this thing to put us IN THE ZONE. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z NAM HI-RES sim radar has a weenie band coming through N VA around 4-5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Considering your latitude...of course...but this time I gotta go with WxUSAF > Wes Since Wes says between DCA and RIC... I read DCA... so I have to go with Wes... if you can allow me to be included in your band then maybe I will say WxUSAF is correct as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hires nam is picking up on the rockville-columbia superband already. It will be 30dbz on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hires nam is picking up on the rockville-columbia superband already. It will be 30dbz on the 18z run. Bob Chill going full weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS looks very similar to the last run and would give us all some snow with the center of the band right over DC to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS looks very similar to the last run and would give us all some snow with the center of the band right over DC to my house. Excellent, Wes Would be nice for you to see some snow out where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It seems like the precip is being delayed a bit until around sunrise which allows it to tap a little more moisture and increase the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It seems like the precip is being delayed a bit until around sunrise which allows it to tap a little more moisture and increase the QPF Wait a minute, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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