TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 nice .. someone will do 'well' i think unless something shifts markedly. it's a good vort. Wait, DCA is actually .06 on 18z GFS, had more earlier, must've been an error. Other 18z GFS outputs/ 12z Euro Outputs respectively IAD: .06 / .05 JYO: .06 / .04 BWI: .09 / .03 MTN: .09 / .02 RIC: 0 / .09 Euro overall was further south, GFS further north. Would give NAM, but I'll wait for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 It is, and it will probably produce a better surface reflection as models realize ow nice the vort is. First call BWI .8" Someone around DCA not the airport (i.e. hotplate), 1.5"no clue on pinning down max areas. hopefully it can end up somewhat like jan 2010 with a good chunk of area picking up around 1" with some places higher.. if anyone does manage .1" liquid some places could push near 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait, DCA is actually .06 on 18z GFS, had more earlier, must've been an error. Other 18z GFS outputs/ 12z Euro Outputs respectively IAD: .06 / .05 JYO: .06 / .04 BWI: .09 / .03 MTN: .09 / .02 RIC: 0 / .09 Euro overall was further south, GFS further north. Would give NAM, but I'll wait for 0z. RIC ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 no clue on pinning down max areas. hopefully it can end up somewhat like jan 2010 with a good chunk of area picking up around 1" with some places higher.. if anyone does manage .1" liquid some places could push near 2". Yeah, I'm trying to analyze the vort a bit better, in this instance we want it to go almost over us right? The low reflection isn't modeled right at the base of the vort it seems however. You think we could get to .1? I am unsure, but with a vort like that you'd certainly expect it if you didn't have access to a precip map. Doesn't hurt that thicknesses are sub 510, really good ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RIC ftw GFS ftw, .09 around BWI would give mitch like his biggest snow of the reason over 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yay, snow anus returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Like the vort look, find the low being down S a bit weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 what does Westminster area look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yay, snow anus returns. this could be a 10pm dusting for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No precip with that vort passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No precip with that vort passage? Do you see that freakin vort? Wouldn't you expect something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 No precip with that vort passage? still looks pretty good.. maybe a hair weaker but margin of error. and that's about where the precip that may fall lies in the model world too. edit: actually not weaker at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Do you see that freakin vort? Wouldn't you expect something... Wrong quadrant, we need the vort max to be to our NW not W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wrong quadrant, we need the vort max to be to our NW not W. True, has the chance to put down something. The models actually differ on it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 still looks pretty good.. maybe a hair weaker but margin of error. and that's about where the precip that may fall lies in the model world too. edit: actually not weaker at all. I bet the GFS has its precip with the vort farther north like it had on the last run but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 I bet the GFS has its precip with the vort farther north like it had on the last run but I guess we'll see. it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it's happening gfs_namer_039_precip_p24.gif Its too bad I can forecast the models better than the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This looks great on the GFS- per the soundings at 30hrs, we appear to get in the dendric snow growth layer. At any event the Thursday AM commute will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 woo-whooo GFS gives BWI .06" tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DCA gets .11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 north trend ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS brings .11 verbatim to DCA, .06 to BWI, and .09 to IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 woo-whooo GFS gives BWI .06" tomorrow night With 10:1 ratios, the MD Dept. of Transportation will cover the roads with 0.6" of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 north trend ftw HMs call earlier today is looking good. The vort is too vigorous not to produce something north of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS brings .11 verbatim to DCA, .06 to BWI, and .09 to IAD.0.06" liquid for 1.2" at IAD on 1/8/10. DCA had an extreme 0.03" liquid for 1.0" of snow. The 20:1 ratio was common across much of the region with many reports of 0.1" liquid actually translating to 2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm psyched. Ill pull an all nighter for 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HMs call earlier today is looking good. The vort is too vigorous not to produce something north of the track. I'll take a bit more please I need that .1 to have any chance of a decent ground covering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm psyched. Ill pull an all nighter for 1" of snow. heck, I've pulled them for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Any chance it trends wetter? What's top end on something like this qpf wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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