WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Even though its the NAM it's good to see that even with a much weaker (almost nonexistant?) 500 mb trough and associated surface low we can still get appreciable precipitation given favorable jet dynamics. By the way the NAM is showing subfreezing temps at the surface through the entire event for W/C NC and even into the upstate of SC. Arctic airmass at its finest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Again...I DONT buy this yet...but, just showing what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 850 temps at about +6C for Charlotte at hour 72 -- with surface temps in the 20s. OUCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Gotta love those 90 minute increments! Again...I DONT buy this yet...but, just showing what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 0z GFS is off and running... That batch of energy off the West Coast looks stronger than the NAM at hr 15. EDIT: Out to hr 24 and the energy hasn't split yet. Looks a lot different than the NAM to me. It also looks a lot better than the 18z GFS so far to me. The energy is stronger and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 0z GFS is off and running... That batch of energy off the West Coast looks stronger than the NAM at hr 15. EDIT: Out to hr 24 and the energy hasn't split yet. Looks a lot different than the NAM to me. Comparing it to the 18z GFS, the southern section of the energy especially looks stronger out to hour 24. Edit: Out to hour 30, the southern part is definitely stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let the 00z model hallucinations begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Comparing it to the 18z GFS, the southern section of the energy especially looks stronger out to hour 24. Yeah, out to hr 30 now and the southern section is much stronger and this looks a lot different than the NAM. This looks like it could be a good run, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I missed Van Denton (darn Parenthood), but before break he said something about all the dry air this system was going to run into. How will that affect the amount of precip? Is this going to be one of those "It's running into too much dry air to produce anything on the ground" type of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just for reference, 01/18/2000 is an example of a clipper that produced without a substantial vort max tracking into the Carolinas (and with a weak surface reflection) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0118.php http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20000118.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I remember the year before last he (Van Denton) apologized on air for it snowing when it was supposed to be rain, but meteorology is a hard job especially when your the local face of it........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ok, well Van Denton aside, what are the chances of the dry air affecting the storm? Is there enough moisture to juice things up quickly? Also, I keep reading where people say that the run is more south. Are you talking about the moisture farther south, the cold farther south or something entirely different? Oh, and "stronger". Do we want it "stronger" or "weaker"? What exactly are you talking about? Sorry for all the questions, but that's how you learn, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let the 00z model hallucinations begin! Getting to that point in time (tomorrow night) for possible Winter Storm Watches. Blacksburg has consistently been barking in their AFD with up to moderate accumulation of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 00z GFS is weaker and less phase-y. FWIW, the 72hr 12z Euro and 12z GFS match on SLP and 850s almost exactly. Not so much for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ok, well Van Denton aside, what are the chances of the dry air affecting the storm? Is there enough moisture to juice things up quickly? Also, I keep reading where people say that the run is more south. Are you talking about the moisture farther south, the cold farther south or something entirely different? Van has a hard job, he is a nice man. On topic...you want it south. Cold is almost certain at this point, can't believe I am saying that for a possible winter storm. Need moisture and for this to not fizzle eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 0z GFS has at least three s/w strung out in the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest -- who knows how they will interact, consolodate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Van has a hard job, he is a nice man. On topic...you want it south. Cold is almost certain at this point, can't believe I am saying that for a possible winter storm. Thanks. I didn't know if they were talking about the cold, the moisture, or something else that I was missing. I may not be a professional, but I do enjoy reading everything you all post...even if I really only understand about 40% of what you're talking about. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 00z GFS is gross. No moisture whatsoever...I mean, the least amount you could possibly imagine. Highest QPF is 0.1" spots and the Piedmont and central NC looked to be left high and dry for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks to me like a surface low is in central Al at hour 72. That's a lot further south than previous runs. But at hour 78 it just kind of dissipates and gets all strung out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS went "poof!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On to the Doc. Be interested to see if Ukie is as amped up as it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We have been looking at american models for to long now...here is the Ukie which seems to have a 1008 low over WV.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, out to hr 30 now and the southern section is much stronger and this looks a lot different than the NAM. This looks like it could be a good run, but we'll see. Nope! Painful run QPF-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Could the RPM be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 There is some precip on the GFS in N / NE Georgia while surface temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does that model only run to 66 hours? Could the RPM be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 4KM runs to 27hrs and the 12KM runs to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Ukie would most likely be all ice (frzng rn)in Triad. qpf would be subject to the old Carolina split miller B screwjob and The MA would be loving it. Wonder if all this new data going into American models is helping them sniff out something or throwing a monkey wrench into their suggested outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What does the 12 km show at 72 hours? Your previous post only showed out to 66 hours...thanks...sorry...don't have WSI graphics The 4KM runs to 27hrs and the 12KM runs to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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