burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If the NAM is correct it is not good for SW mountains of NC and Eastern TN or all of NC for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM pulls ice storm warning criteria for some last minute...didn't think it would. Not sure what to think of that really. It was vastly different, but I guess that is what you get when you pour so much data in the NAM long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 One would think if our southern stream energy is going to die a miserable death over Nappa Valley and be a zero player the EC would have picked up on it at this range. If the GFS trends toward that it may have to be taken seriously considering the gulfstream drops ingested in the 0z suite, otherwise, likely a garbage run of the NAM outside of its useful range, and with some buttefly effects outside of the box at this point, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I'm looking at this correctly, the Fayetteville area gets clobbered with freezing rain this run. Some areas look to have over 1/2" of it. Whatever the case, the NAM is out on its own right now, so I wouldn't put too much stock into it, as others have said. DCA gets nothing at all. Zilch. Nada. I think the cliffs up that way might be packed here soon based off that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not sure if the NAM is drunk but the snow map on the surface is spitting out 2 - 3 inches for all of NC of snow....gotta be something funky with the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not sure if the NAM is drunk but the snow map on the surface is spitting out 2 - 3 inches for all of NC of snow....gotta be something funky with the map. There is. I have seen freezing rain advertised as over a foot of snow for the blue ridge just this winter w/ the NAM snow outputs. Not sure if that is the case here, use caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at precip type it does have snow over parts of central NC but this is probably just not reading the column correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anyone have any ideas on what is actually causing the precip on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agreed...the NAM was HORRIBLE with the last event so I don't really trust it right now...especially since it still appears to be the outlier...we'll have to watch that QPF trend though...looks wetter on this run for some folks One would think if our southern stream energy is going to die a miserable death over Nappa Valley and be a zero player the EC would have picked up on it at this range. If the GFS trends toward that it may have to be taken seriously considering the gulfstream drops ingested in the 0z suite, otherwise, likely a garbage run of the NAM outside of its useful range, and with some buttefly effects outside of the box at this point, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 12z Euro generates similar precip to the NAM, albeit not in the same layout. So it may not be that out to lunch. The 12z Euro is also very cold at the surface, keeping most of central and western NC below freezing the entire day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's jet dynamics...we are in the right entrance region of the jet streak Anyone have any ideas on what is actually causing the precip on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks like a ZR event for most of NC to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at precip type it does have snow over parts of central NC but this is probably just not reading the column correctly... I think it's reading the column fine, the precip is arriving and than after it falls the 850's rise, this would probably be a snow/ice mix. What I don't understand is why does the vort map below cause all this precip to fall in NC/SC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anyone have any ideas on what is actually causing the precip on the NAM? Despite the 500mb setup being less favorable, primarily northern stream energy streaking by well to the north, the 250mb jet setup is better compared to 18 & 12z, dual appearance with more phasing between the two branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks like a ZR event for most of NC to me. Yeah the 850 0 degree line retreats pretty far north during the core of the precip. Not sure how the precip maps are generating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Despite the 500mb setup being less favorable, primarily northern stream energy streaking by well to the north, the 250mb jet setup is better compared to 18 & 12z, dual appearance with more phasing between the two branches. This???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ummmm.....00z RPM is on crack...lol I will post an image shortly....Shaking his head because I know its got to be wrong, but its interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ummmm.....00z RPM is on crack...lol I will post an image shortly....Shaking his head because I know its got to be wrong, but its interesting Oh come on RPM tease! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes...see the dual jet streaks? We are in the right entrance region. This???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Despite the 500mb setup being less favorable, primarily northern stream energy streaking by well to the north, the 250mb jet setup is better compared to 18 & 12z, dual appearance with more phasing between the two branches. Ahh completely forgot to check for jet dynamics. Thanks that makes sense. Does like a marginal dual jet structure sets up for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** 0Z WED NAM MODEL... IS NOW IN... This run of this weather Model IS WEAKER with the FRIDAY SYSTEM and has snow ONLY from Richmond SOUTH INTO Central NC. Taken verbatim the Model show only 2 " of snow over central/ southeast va... YES including all of Hampton Roads and 3 " over much of central and Northern NC.... Raleigh Hickory Greensboro even 1 " at Charlotte . The Model shows NO snow NORTH of line from LEXINGTON VA to RICHMOND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ummmm.....00z RPM is on crack...lol I will post an image shortly....Shaking his head because I know its got to be wrong, but its interesting Lord we are getting snow thirsty looking at the long range NAM now this. On to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** 0Z WED NAM MODEL... IS NOW IN... This run of this weather Model IS WEAKER with the FRIDAY SYSTEM and has snow ONLY from Richmond SOUTH INTO Central NC. Taken verbatim the Model show only 2 " of snow over central/ southeast va... YES including all of Hampton Roads and 3 " over much of central and Northern NC.... Raleigh Hickory Greensboro even 1 " at Charlotte . The Model shows NO snow NORTH of line from LEXINGTON VA to RICHMOND. How is it weaker if it shows more snow for most of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How is it weaker if it how's more snow for most of NC? Because less snow for DC and I-95, which are the only parts of the world that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If the NAM is correct it is not good for SW mountains of NC and Eastern TN or all of NC for that matter. haha..............the NAM and correct past 54 don't often "dance" together. It's definitely not going to be exact, but it is interesting that it's seeing a further south qpf field. Looking at 500 it really doesn't look to have much of a reason to amp up the precip. It will be interesting to see the rest of the 0z guidance (not that I will be up for it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 he's talking about the low pressure being weaker which means the precip shield is less expansive How is it weaker if it shows more snow for most of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Speak of the devil Chris, it looks like that's what it might do on this run. Also good to have you back posting! Your input has been badly missed. +1! need another seasoned pair of eyes looking at these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This???? is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 is this good or bad? Red is bad and blue is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 is this good or bad? Yes, you can see the northern/southern stream merging but I thought you would need some energy/vorticity to go along with it, but I guess you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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