superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Apparently Accucrap doesn't know how a Miller B actually works. Accuweather maps are always grossly inaccurate, it seems. I don't know who makes them, but they are almost always totally unrepresentative of what is actually forecasted. The NAM should be out soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18z GEFS members look really good IMO....including the OP 8 out 12 get a nice snow event to NC. The other 4 maybe ice but haven't looked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18z GEFS members look really good IMO....including the OP 8 out 12 get a nice snow event to NC. The other 4 maybe ice but haven't looked yet. Just getting ready to post the same. Temps are all fairly similar with 850 line cutting NC in half on most of them, 4 similar to the op the other 6 or so with what appears to be 0.4 or more of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 FYI: T he NAM was viewed as an outlier earlier today. Something to watch in regards to the 0z. Should be some new dropsonde data ingetsed for the 0z suite. ...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURS... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED QUICKER OVER THEIR PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS...BUT THE NAM IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD REACHING THE WEST COAST MID DAY THU. THERE SEEMS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM BEING A BIT TOO QUICK BASED ON THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE NAM ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18z GEFS members look really good IMO....including the OP 8 out 12 get a nice snow event to NC. The other 4 maybe ice but haven't looked yet.I would consider that SN output very suspect, for one the grids are much more coarse and I have seen several times where the majority of mems were showing a solid event, op not so much, and the op verified better. Second, the algorithm uses a SN flag which has difficulty decerning between SN and IP. The thickness plots are a better tool, sub 1300/1540 and you good, grey area above that and reference the nonogram. Also depend on saturation aloft in the dendritic growth zone, I see some indications on skew t's that layer may not become saturated enough for good crystal growth, which is to be expected during a weak overrunning event. That would mean more of column, plates and maybe sheaths/needles, which ratio out much lower than dendrites.Still have a good 72 hours, I would start to become concerned if we see precip amounts under a couple tenths, were kinda on that boarder now. NOAA has a Gulf Stream off the coast of southern CA atm with drops on point at 0z, anyone know if this is involved with the trough working through the plains on Thursday? Only thing I can think of is some energy breaking off and potential interaction later on with the northern stream, but the ECMWF and UKMET have been pretty consistent in dampening out whatever break off as it moves through the inter mountain west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at the GEFS Plumes from 18z, I see the following for CAE: (Ew @ that max member) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18z GEFS members look really good IMO....including the OP 8 out 12 get a nice snow event to NC. The other 4 maybe ice but haven't looked yet. Op was not pleasing to my eyes. Anyway, good news is we can't lose much more precip or we will not have any. I sense a spike in qpf coming with the 0z. Roll the dice with what little we have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at the GEFS Plumes from 18z, I see the following for CAE: (Ew @ that max member) Cop graphic, can you post link or one for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Op was not pleasing to my eyes. Anyway, good news is we can't lose much more precip or we will not have any. I sense a spike in qpf coming with the 0z. Roll the dice with what little we have! What are you taking about...the 18z GFS precip increased by 50% from its 12z run for RDU to 0.15"! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cop graphic, can you post link or one for RDU? Also here is the website. It includes the SREF also! GEFS & SREF PLUMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 00z NAM is more than likely going to end up closer to 18z than it's 12z counter part I can tell you that much. At 5h it's splitting that energy in the pacific into two chunks which looks like one is going to ride up into Canada while the other is going to probably go into the Rockies...it might die out though...only out to 24 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still have a good 72 hours, I would start to become concerned if we see precip amounts under a couple tenths, were kinda on that boarder now. NOAA has a Gulf Stream off the coast of southern CA atm with drops on point at 0z, anyone know if this is involved with the trough working through the plains on Thursday? Only thing I can think of is some energy breaking off and potential interaction later on with the northern stream, but the ECMWF and UKMET have been pretty consistent in dampening out whatever break off as it moves through the inter mountain west. Speak of the devil Chris, it looks like that's what it might do on this run. Also good to have you back posting! Your input has been badly missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, it's hard to tell if things are good or bad because people seem to just be making general comments about their own backyard. If anything Wintry is showing towards CAE in any possibility, then I think you guys will have more moisture to work with and colder considering it's a modified clipper currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What does that mean? Looking at the GEFS Plumes from 18z, I see the following for CAE: (Ew @ that max member) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 230126 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0125Z WED JAN 23 2013 THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON TIME WITH 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...70 CONUS...11 MEXICAN AND 3 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. ADDITIONALLY...6 DROPSONDE REPORTS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN SUPPORT OF THE WSR PROGRAM WERE AVBL FOR INGEST. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 78016/BDA - PURGED TEMP/RH 501-497 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC 78970/POS - 10159 91285/ITO - 10142...GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What does that mean? See the red lines and the blue and green? Well green is rain.. which most the members want to do. Bufkit did show CAE on both the OP 18z NAM & GFS starting as a bit of sleet/freezing rain. The NAM was way lower on amounts.. I extracted the NAM text from WXCaster and saw "Frzn" in the output, but the GFS stuck with it's rain on it with temps slightly above freezing. Right now it's just a slight chance, but each run is getting more support. Don't fret though, nothing major as of now even if it did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What in the world is the NAM trying to pull now... ...I expect a fizzle further east...wait for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, it's hard to tell if things are good or bad because people seem to just be making general comments about their own backyard. Anytime we have both the Euro and GFS showing a winter event inside 84 hours for our area it's good...lets hope the 0z holds tonight. If the the 0z and 12z tomorrow holds we should be in a good spot. I wouldn't be surprised if this events totally fizzled out tonight or shifts NW and puts us with rain, it's all on the table still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAM looks drunk compared to other models. It's sending a moderately strong piece of energy into San Fran in Cali while that northern energy is racing ahead in Canada. Out to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAM looks drunk compared to other models. It's sending a moderately strong piece of energy into San Fran in Cali while that northern energy is racing ahead in Canada. Out to 36 The models that were showing more precip kept this wave more or less one piece of energy. This splitting may very well kill the storm completely downstream as energy gets divided/ left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That southern split energy is lagging way behind this run, it seems. Out to hr 48 and that one piece of energy is still over Sacramento, CA. It was over the Great Salt Lake in 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the NAM is juicing up the atmosphere (if you can call it that) and showing 1-2 inches of snow for NE TN, and more in the mountains through hr 36. I wonder if this trend will continue. It's something for us on the west side of the apps to pay attention to ahead of the clipper (unless I am hallucinating) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the NAM is juicing up the atmosphere (if you can call it that) and showing 1-2 inches of snow for NE TN, and more in the mountains through hr 36. I wonder if this trend will continue. It's something for us on the west side of the apps to pay attention to ahead of the clipper (unless I am hallucinating) I'd say thats about the only precip this run will show... Northern wave MUCH flatter compared to 12z I'd be surprised if there is a storm at all. EDIT: At 60 precip appears out of nowhere west of the apps. I'm not seeing the forcing for this. The wave is far removed as is the surface low. Is it simply WAA overtop the arctic front on the backside of the high pressure over VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'd say thats about the only precip this run will show... Northern wave MUCH flatter compared to 12z I'd be surprised if there is a storm at all. We've got something flaring up at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty significant ZR in eastern TN @66 looks to be headed due east into NC...we'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Oh, wow, this might turn out well. Looks further south than 18z. Out to 66 and I'm pleasantly surprised given what was going on earlier in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 @69 ZR for upstate of SC and most of NC...this run ups the QPF already has .20 or so for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 @69 ZR for upstate of SC and most of NC...this run ups the QPF already has .20 or so for NC. So strange given the much weaker depiction at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Virginia gets shafted. Looks like a (relatively) significant winter storm in North Carolina all the way down into upstate South Carolina. Freezing rain, sleet, and probably some snow up towards the VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty sizeable icestorm on the NAM. .30-.40 for most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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