Tacoma Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If this will dig a little more come Friday I think we're in business. The cold air is already here and the atmosphere is going to be cold all week long to support a winter storm if as Robert said on his WXSOUTH the storm will dig a little more but not to much as not to bring in the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6 out 21 generate significant precip. SREF member precip totals. Most of the members either clobber us or don’t generate much precip for anybody. None of the members are amped up/ farther North like the canadian. edit: maybe one or two of them amped up like the CMC. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTSE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 HPC likes SWVA and mtns of NC and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 HPC likes SWVA and mtns of NC and TN. Check the time...that's through 7pm Friday night before much of brunt of the precip is scheduled to hit the other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check the time...that's through 7pm Friday night before much of brunt of the precip is scheduled to hit the other regions. Thanks for pointing that out.. I didn't even notice how late it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check the time...that's through 7pm Friday night before much of brunt of the precip is scheduled to hit the other regions. Slowed down considerably. Far less of an impact for school/business closings if there is nothing by 7pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the ATL area were to get ~1/4" of ZR, that would about tie for the largest amount of ZR in any event there since the one from 12/2005. The other two ~0.25" ZR's since 12/2005 of which I'm aware are the tail end of the big S (and then some IP) of 1/10-11/2011 and the tail end of the S of 1/16-7/2008. I think this would easily be the largest from an event that were primarily ZR since 12/2005 if it were to be near 0.25". Whereas getting 0.25" likely wouldn't be enough to cause many power outages, it would still be a rather sig. event and would likely cause about as slippery roads as many majors have, if not worse than some of them. My point is that if there were to be ~0.25" of ZR on Friday in much of N GA, it shouldn't be trivialized by any means. That would be a pretty sig. winter storm in its own right and wouldn't have been exceeded in over 7 years in terms of ZR amounts in Atlanta at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT NEARS. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Triad and Central NC media are starting to pre-honk this event. Van Denton is talking about it. Winston-Salem Journal already has article on it. Winston-Salem Journal | JournalNow Residents in Winston-Salem and Northwest North Carolina might see more snow Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For the Blacksburg CWA folks. They seem to favor the ECMWF over the GFS as of now: THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS WARMER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE GFS...DEPICTING A DEFINITE SNOW EVENT. THE PROBLEM IS WITH QPF. THE GFS SHOWS A CLASSIC NEW RIVER VALLEY SPLIT IN THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF 0.25 OR MORE QPF ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z SAT TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A 75 PERCENT ECMWF/25 PERCENT GFS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE COLDEST/WETTEST SOLUTION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL POTENTIALLY MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF OUR WV COUNTIES...AND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I would like to hear coldrainstr8cashhomeys thoughts on this upcoming "event" if he's out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I would like to hear coldrainstr8cashhomeys thoughts on this upcoming "event" if he's out there? This is the stations weather blog. He will post in almost all the write ups. http://www.foxcarolina.com/category/211127/weather-blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Models may be having a hard time with the amount of QPF because of the dry air in place right now. Whether overdone or underdone still going to be a lot of wild swings with the QPF outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Triad and Central NC media are starting to pre-honk this event. Van Denton is talking about it. Winston-Salem Journal already has article on it. Winston-Salem Journal | JournalNow Residents in Winston-Salem and Northwest North Carolina might see more snow Friday... WXII is talking it up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have to admit I'm shocked that RAH already has my area as a wintry mix for Friday and Friday night. I think we are in one of those situations where the models cannot be used to determine the setup. RAH actaully has been discussing this winter weather potential for a couple of days; when the models were much farther north with the low. This is why we still need meteorologist. The day that the computer provides the official forecast is not yet here. I think we can garner from these two posts that RAH is putting more faith in the ECMWF solution while GSP is leaning more towards the GFS. Met fight?! I think even a mix of the Euro and GFS could be a big mess here. It won't take much with the cold temps we will have this week to cause a glaze of ice on the roads, and that is all you need here to cause havoc. Fishel mentioned a chance of wintry mix on the broadcast tonight, but of course he is playing it cautious right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Brad Panovich @wxbrad Snow meter is nudged to a 2 right now for Friday. Ice is still my main concern. http://fb.me/2bxmXD6Q2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Matt east had this to say about dry air a few pages back. On phone so I cannot multi quote ... "A note about the dry air..... the modeling should account for the dry air with the precip amounts. Now, any model could certainly under-estimate the amount of dry air (and they often do), but the modeling does account for evaporation in the QPF amounts." Models may be having a hard time with the amount of QPF because of the dry air in place right now. Whether overdone or underdone still going to be a lot of wild swings with the QPF outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Seems consecutive model runs are wanting to put just enough sleet/za around CAE to make a little mess. Nothing major, YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here is the afternoon HWO from GSP: Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC416 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>003-232130-RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-416 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONTNORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TOPRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAEARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. FREEZINGRAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ATENTH OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER MOUNTAINELEVATIONS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ALSO FALL IN THE NORTHERNNORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS EVENT COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTSTO STAY UPDATED ON THE EVENT AS IT DRAWS NEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think the only way this could become anything more than a minor(1-3 inches sn or <.25 ice) event, is if we see this s/w digging more to the southwest and threatening a coastal SLP to pop up stronger than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If the ATL area were to get ~1/4" of ZR, that would about tie for the largest amount of ZR in any event there since the one from 12/2005. The other two ~0.25" ZR's since 12/2005 of which I'm aware are the tail end of the big S (and then some IP) of 1/10-11/2011 and the tail end of the S of 1/16-7/2008. I think this would easily be the largest from an event that were primarily ZR since 12/2005 if it were to be near 0.25". Whereas getting 0.25" likely wouldn't be enough to cause many power outages, it would still be a rather sig. event and would likely cause about as slippery roads as many majors have, if not worse than some of them. My point is that if there were to be ~0.25" of ZR on Friday in much of N GA, it shouldn't be trivialized by any means. That would be a pretty sig. winter storm in its own right and wouldn't have been exceeded in over 7 years in terms of ZR amounts in Atlanta at least. 05 was the last significant frozen something I could street sled on, and the reason was a period of sleet mixed in down here, and saved things. All I've seen since was a few dabs of snow, and the two bigger, melty spring snows. Prior to that the last significant zrain was Jan 2000 down here, and that was mostly a tree top deal. The last destructo zrain was back in the 80's, and that is more of a surprise than anything, because it is so easy to get zrain compared to the other types of frozen, and bad zrain was much more common in years past. I'm still liking the end of the month, first week of Feb. for a more decent storm :)T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think the only way this could become anything more than a minor(1-3 inches sn or <.25 ice) event, is if we see this s/w digging more to the southwest and threatening a coastal SLP to pop up stronger than currently progged. Yeah, otherwise its really just a glorified clipper at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think the only way this could become anything more than a minor(1-3 inches sn or <.25 ice) event, is if we see this s/w digging more to the southwest and threatening a coastal SLP to pop up stronger than currently progged. would that not bring more waa with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Have a hard time believing Atlanta has ANY chance of snow or ice with forecast temps thurs night in the 40s and highs pushing 60 on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Have a hard time believing Atlanta has ANY chance of snow or ice with forecast temps thurs night in the 40s and highs pushing 60 on friday I wouldn't necessarily say Atlanta has a good chance at seeing anything out of this, but I highly doubt it will be anywhere near 60 on Friday. NWS FFC will bring their forecast down into more reasonable territory with their next update, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Have a hard time believing Atlanta has ANY chance of snow or ice with forecast temps thurs night in the 40s and highs pushing 60 on friday If you're speaking of a weather forecast from someone, then the temps aren't adjusted yet until we get closer. One thing to note, I just checked the 18z NAM & GFS and both have it starting as ZA for ATL for a few hours. A .10 of an inch can be enough to cause a mess in some situations. I tested with both bourgoiun precip type and with it off. Also, the time of the year matches pretty well for a ZA event for parts of GA speaking Climo. EDIT: GFS looks to be a bit of sleet mixed in also. Here's a link to check out what the models have been doing for ATL, check out the whole page and find the frozen stuff sections. KATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .1 Is this one shower or a wall of frozen drizzle accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert new run of the RPM is up.....again, not my forecast, but a model..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .1 Is this one shower or a wall of frozen drizzle accumulate? Apparently Accucrap doesn't know how a Miller B actually works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ray's Weather Map https://twitter.com/raysweather/status/293891700185784320/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=raysweather&utm_content=293891700185784320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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