Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[superjames1992]

Whoops, thanks. Makes more sense. 

 

It's verifying pretty well, too, as we approach 3 PM.  It's pouring bucketloads of sleet here now.

[Bevo]

It has been sleeting for the last 40 minutes in Greenville, SC and the roads are  getting slick in a hurry.

 

The further toward NW SC you get - the more you run into problems.  Overall though, a little sleet and zr but a nonevent for the most part here.

[chapelhillwx]

Although the precip has ended here, roads got really bad really fast. Seeing the sleet get blown around on 276 was pretty weird.

[NEGa]

Where did all the Georgia posters go? I want to know how Atlanta is fairing. 

 

Weatherunderground has them a high of 57 today. They are already at 37. Is the event over with there? I know schools and stuff closed across north Georgia. 

 

not sure how atlanta is doing, but ne ga is at least getting some winter wx.  off and on sleet and freezing rain still going on, but just not very heavy unfortunately lol  definitely a glaze on everything and the temp is 26. 

[MotoWeatherman]

not sure how atlanta is doing, but ne ga is at least getting some winter wx.  off and on sleet and freezing rain still going on, but just not very heavy unfortunately lol  definitely a glaze on everything and the temp is 26. 

I've been in the OBs thread.  Light glaze with .07" QPF and high of 26...so far.

[CaryWx]

Is that the back edge I'm seeing east of GBO?

[superjames1992]

Is that the back edge I'm seeing east of GBO?

 

Yes, it is.  We're just down to some scattered sleet pellets here now.

[CoolBreeze]

I'm glad this turned out to be a good bit of sleet instead of ZR. Now that it's winding down in the Triad, was there more WAA than was progged which turned the Triad's snow/sleet to sleet/ZR? Trying to learn from this ... TIA...

[WidreMann]

Sleet and ZR here. Driving home on 147 was a little harrowing, but no major accidents that I saw. People were taking it slow. Maybe .1 to .15 inches of 

 

Somewhat of an overproducer. Was not expecting the radar to look like this.

[a5ehren]

I've been in the OBs thread.  Light glaze with .07" QPF and high of 26...so far.

Midtown is at 43 with no precip.  The gradient is pretty intense as you head north and east.

[DaculaWeather]

CAD still hanging in here. 32.7ºF

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

lots of reports of sleet mixed with freezing rain here in Upstate SC over to NE Georgia from Toccoa all the way to Pumpkintown and Gaffney down further south... roads were bad on my trip home, but i may be one of the few who don't wig out driving in it... maybe I'm too low-key or somethin

 

but,    man...

 

this "event" was 100% minor since the bulk of it was in and out in less than 3 hours, yet some of our viewers will never be satisfied with a forecast that called for a light glaze of sleet/freezing rain (no snow) leading to possible bridge and road concerns sometime between the morning and mid-afternoon... oh wait, yes that actually IS what happened

 

ah, well, at some point I will punch someone in the jimmy... I need a 6-pack of cold rain

[Cold Rain]

lots of reports of sleet mixed with freezing rain here in Upstate SC over to NE Georgia from Toccoa all the way to Pumpkintown and Gaffney down further south... roads were bad on my trip home, but i may be one of the few who don't wig out driving in it... maybe I'm too low-key or somethin

 

but,    man...

 

this "event" was 100% minor since the bulk of it was in and out in less than 3 hours, yet some of our viewers will never be satisfied with a forecast that called for a light glaze of sleet/freezing rain (no snow) leading to possible bridge and road concerns sometime between the morning and mid-afternoon... oh wait, yes that actually IS what happened

 

ah, well, at some point I will punch someone in the jimmy... I need a 6-pack of cold rain

Don't worry man. When you roll out the accum map for the big snowstorm late next week, people will love it!

[MotoWeatherman]

CAD still hanging in here. 32.7ºF

Sure is. Still at 28 imby

[SnowNiner]

lots of reports of sleet mixed with freezing rain here in Upstate SC over to NE Georgia from Toccoa all the way to Pumpkintown and Gaffney down further south... roads were bad on my trip home, but i may be one of the few who don't wig out driving in it... maybe I'm too low-key or somethin

 

but,    man...

 

this "event" was 100% minor since the bulk of it was in and out in less than 3 hours, yet some of our viewers will never be satisfied with a forecast that called for a light glaze of sleet/freezing rain (no snow) leading to possible bridge and road concerns sometime between the morning and mid-afternoon... oh wait, yes that actually IS what happened

 

ah, well, at some point I will punch someone in the jimmy... I need a 6-pack of cold rain

 

Yes, overall a minor event as was progged.  I'm suprised it did what it did actually but overall I found the roads in CLT were ok.  What I WAS impressed with was the surface temps.  I'm not sure I've seen a high of 26 in CLT ever.   Impressive surface wedge.  Hopefully this is just going to be the warning shot for the rest of winter.  I really feel we can get a good snow pop in the mouth the next 2 weeks or so. 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Yes, overall a minor event as was progged.  I'm suprised it did what it did actually but overall I found the roads in CLT were ok.  What I WAS impressed with was the surface temps.  I'm not sure I've seen a high of 26 in CLT ever.   Impressive surface wedge.  Hopefully this is just going to be the warning shot for the rest of winter.  I really feel we can get a good snow pop in the mouth the next 2 weeks or so. 

 

agree on the wedge... definitely a very stout low-level airmass today and fog could be bad news later tonight for us

[Hammer]

Not sure how 38 was the high anywhere around me today - best I saw was 32 (and that was pushing it)... most rain is freezing on my deck almost as quickly as it hits... making for interesting "potty runs" for the dogs.

[buckeyefan1]

lots of reports of sleet mixed with freezing rain here in Upstate SC over to NE Georgia from Toccoa all the way to Pumpkintown and Gaffney down further south... roads were bad on my trip home, but i may be one of the few who don't wig out driving in it... maybe I'm too low-key or somethin

 

but,    man...

 

this "event" was 100% minor since the bulk of it was in and out in less than 3 hours, yet some of our viewers will never be satisfied with a forecast that called for a light glaze of sleet/freezing rain (no snow) leading to possible bridge and road concerns sometime between the morning and mid-afternoon... oh wait, yes that actually IS what happened

 

ah, well, at some point I will punch someone in the jimmy... I need a 6-pack of cold rain

Don't let the minority ruin your day (although a cold rain sounds good).....It's not the "some" you do it for     It's for weather nerds like me, you, and quite a few others, that appreciate what you do and how you do it    

[Isopycnic]

Don't let the minority ruin your day (although a cold rain sounds good).....It's not the "some" you do it for     It's for weather nerds like me, you, and quite a few others, that appreciate what you do and how you do it    

Indeed. Not everyone can win when the SE forum covers so much area.

[DCMetroWinston]

This January 25 (my Birthday!) is significantly colder than the historic January 25, 2000.  GSO today reached a high of 25, CLT reached 27, RDU reached 28.  In 2000, highs were in the 30s. 

[Stormsfury]

Yes, overall a minor event as was progged.  I'm suprised it did what it did actually but overall I found the roads in CLT were ok.  What I WAS impressed with was the surface temps.  I'm not sure I've seen a high of 26 in CLT ever.   Impressive surface wedge.  Hopefully this is just going to be the warning shot for the rest of winter.  I really feel we can get a good snow pop in the mouth the next 2 weeks or so. 

CLT official high of 27 yesterday was the coldest low maximum temperature for that date (tied with 1940).  

 

RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC155 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT CHARLOTTE NC...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLASINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 27 DEGREES.  THIS TIES THE LOWEST MAXIMUMTEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY 25 AT CHARLOTTE. 27 DEGREES WAS PREVIOUSLYSET AS THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JANUARY 25 IN 1940.  RECORDDATA HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY KEPT FOR CHARLOTTE IN THE MONTH OFJANUARY SINCE 1879.

[GaWx]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned that the RGEM, which consistently had rather significant wintry precip. further south in GA, did horribly. As I had mentioned in advance, the Canadian model has a too far south bias with wintry precip. and that's why I was saying that I didn't buy those runs that had the wintry precip. further south than the GFS/Euro. This example is why I will continue to mention this too far south bias of the Canadian when it is off in its own vs. the GFS/Euro.

Let's face it. The Canadian is inferior to both the GFS and the Euro. Time and time again it has verified the worst of these three. It may not be as bad as the 60-84 hour NAM, but it is quite unreliable at those hours or even within 48, which is RGEM territory. Geez, it may not be all that much better than the JMA!

Atlanta has had no wintry precip. this month from the two SE wintry events. If one were to have relied on the Canadian, he/she would be looking pretty bad right now. This has been a problem for a good number of winters. It isn't anything new. Don't let the pretty colors of different types of wintry precip. draw you in as a victim. Better looking graphics don't a better model make.

[calculus1]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned that the RGEM, which consistently had rather significant wintry precip. further south in GA, did horribly. As I had mentioned in advance, the Canadian model has a too far south bias with wintry precip. and that's why I was saying that I didn't buy those runs that had the wintry precip. further south than the GFS/Euro. This example is why I will continue to mention this too far south bias of the Canadian when it is off in its own vs. the GFS/Euro.

Let's face it. The Canadian is inferior to both the GFS and the Euro. Time and time again it has verified the worst of these three. It may not be as bad as the 60-84 hour NAM, but it is quite unreliable at those hours or even within 48, which is RGEM territory. Geez, it may not be all that much better than the JMA!

Atlanta has had no wintry precip. this month from the two SE wintry events. If one were to have relied on the Canadian, he/she would be looking pretty bad right now. This has been a problem for a good number of winters. It isn't anything new. Don't let the pretty colors of different types of wintry precip. draw you in as a victim. Better looking graphics don't a better model make.

 

I have to respectively disagree, sir.  I realize that you are focused on GA weather more than any other state, but in my opinion the RGEM did quite well for NC.  It consistently showed decent precipitation amounts in all of NC, while the GFS was showing a fizzled storm with relative minimum locations in the lee of the Apps (the NAM also showed this lee).  Therefore, I tend to give a decent amount of credence to the RGEM for this storm.  It kept the idea of a decent ice storm for all of NC for several days leading up to the event.  Obviously, we are looking at this model through differently-focused lenses, but I think the Canadian took the GFS out behind the woodshed for a beating (at least in NC). 

[franklin NCwx]

I have to respectively disagree, sir. I realize that you are focused on GA weather more than any other state, but in my opinion the RGEM did quite well for NC. It consistently showed decent precipitation amounts in all of NC, while the GFS was showing a fizzled storm with relative minimum locations in the lee of the Apps (the NAM also showed this lee). Therefore, I tend to give a decent amount of credence to the RGEM for this storm. It kept the idea of a decent ice storm for all of NC for several days leading up to the event. Obviously, we are looking at this model through differently-focused lenses, but I think the Canadian took the GFS out behind the woodshed for a beating (at least in NC).

I agree the rgem did very well for western nc.

[GaWx]

I have to respectively disagree, sir. I realize that you are focused on GA weather more than any other state, but in my opinion the RGEM did quite well for NC. It consistently showed decent precipitation amounts in all of NC, while the GFS was showing a fizzled storm with relative minimum locations in the lee of the Apps (the NAM also showed this lee). Therefore, I tend to give a decent amount of credence to the RGEM for this storm. It kept the idea of a decent ice storm for all of NC for several days leading up to the event. Obviously, we are looking at this model through differently-focused lenses, but I think the Canadian took the GFS out behind the woodshed for a beating (at least in NC).

Yeah, my comments are mainly based on how it has done over the years, overall, in the bulk of N GA south of the mountains, where I focus. Not only did it do poorly very recently, it has had a good number of runs just a few days out giving 4"+ snow down as far south as the Atlanta-Athens corridor for other storms when neither the GFS nor the Euro had anything of significance.

The GFS didn't do great in N GA either though it did reduce its QPF during the last couple of days of runs unlike the RGEM. I thought the Euro did best of the three in N GA as it pretty consistently had very little ZR. Then again, it tends to have a warm two meter temperature bias when there is steady precip. falling in winter. However, that is consistent and I normally know to take that into account.