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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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I have a very real concern about the blob of precip headed SE toward Atlanta. We're still well below freezing over here on the NE side and I still have a wet bulb of 26.8ºF It appears it might get here about the time the schools are letting out. This could be a disaster for afternoon traffic here. Has me a little worried.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_georgia.php

Do you think it will hold together?

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Winds here are still out of the NE,locking in the wedge.yesterday there was talk of S/SE winds.doubt temps here get above 30,and we get some heavier precip later,it will be rough! Allready 100 + wrecks around GSP area per wyff 4 news.

Surface winds have been out of the S / SE in central/western NC all morning.  Temperatures in the low-mid 20's in central NC at midday.  This is one helluva cold airmass considering we are not experiencing a steady NE feed.  Good example of how models days out don't always handle the drain of cold air.

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Surface winds have been out of the S / SE in central/western NC all morning.  Temperatures in the low-mid 20's in central NC at midday.  This is one helluva cold airmass considering we are not experiencing a steady NE feed.  Good example of how models days out don't always handle the drain of cold air.

 

It seems that the models underestimated the cold.  I wasn't forecasted to be at 22 degrees now by any model, IIRC.

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This one's for you Brick...

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA      CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN       VALID 251743Z - 252145Z      SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS   THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH   COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE   CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM   METROPOLITAN AREAS.      DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS   THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM   APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN   APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.    MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO   55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING   EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  THIS LIKELY   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND   BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING   SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS.  AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES   SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT   WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO   MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.  SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS   MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE   COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.    WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10   INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...   POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.
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Threw charlotte a bone to evidently

 

This one's for you Brick...

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA      CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN       VALID 251743Z - 252145Z      SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS   THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH   COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE   CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM   METROPOLITAN AREAS.      DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS   THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM   APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN   APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.    MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO   55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING   EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  THIS LIKELY   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND   BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING   SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS.  AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES   SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT   WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO   MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.  SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS   MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE   COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.    WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10   INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...   POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.
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I believe we'll see something out of this.

 

i hope this thing can hold together, had a breif shower/sleet this morning  nothing froze yet... my temp has started to rise about a degree or two this last hour(rose to 30 for a few mins now back to 29.8)... NWS still has us at 18 dewpoint  so this thing better hurry up

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I have a very real concern about the blob of precip headed SE toward Atlanta. We're still well below freezing over here on the NE side and I still have a wet bulb of 26.8ºF It appears it might get here about the time the schools are letting out. This could be a disaster for afternoon traffic here. Has me a little worried.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_georgia.php

Yep. Unlike snow, with freezing rain 10 minutes can be the difference between nothing to impassable.

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22 degrees with 11 degree dewpoint at Greensboro.  If that precip moves it to saturate column, temps will crash into teens for Triad, and the region would be a solid ice rink.

 

Yeah, we've got some light sleet starting up again.

 

What is somewhat amazing is how what was on the road earlier has now somewhat melted off.  It's amazing what the sun can do in mid-day, even with temperatures so low.

 

Nevertheless, the sun angle is only going to get lower from here on out, so things are going to get ugly later.  Thankfully, I'm home now.

 

RAH still has us under a WWA.  I'm surprised they didn't put up WSWs for some of their counties, to be honest.

 

I also must say, so much for this starting at 3 PM like it was supposed it.

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