Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[superjames1992]

Hmm, seems like RAH is jumping the gun a little, going with Snow Likely on Friday and Friday night for the Triad.

Yeah, I'm surprised.  Going with a high of 30 here with snow/sleet (all snow after 11 AM) and a low of 23 with snow likely before midnight.

 

Then again, they are pretty knowledgeable and certainly know more than most of us!

 

RAH is usually pretty conservative with these wintry systems, though.  If they are staking their claim three days out, I'd have to think that bodes well for us.  Remember that they are using meteorology, not modelology!

[Lookout]

RAH afternoon thoughts:

 

...POTENTIAL WINTERY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL ENSUE ONTHURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THEMID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG ~1040MBOVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTICAND CAROLINAS. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUTOF THE 30S ON THURSDAY WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPHPROVIDING AN ADDED NIP TO THE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABRUPTLYAFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE ARCTICHIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SUB-FREEZING LOWS WELL INTO THE LOWERTO MID 20S.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS SECONDARY LOWDEVELOPS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO DIGGINGPACIFIC NW ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US...LEADING TO AN EXPANDINGSHIELD OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIE ON THESOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND COLD FRONTOVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ISTHEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTICREGION...CONSOLIDATING/MERGING ALONG THE WAY BEFORE A CENTRALIZEDLOW EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.THE SUBFREEZING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONTAPPROACH FAVORS NARROW CORRIDORS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATIONACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH WARMADVECTION PROCESSES(SHOWERY LIKE) DRIVING THE PRECIP WITH DYNAMICFORCING/LIFT WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO LAST WEEKS STORM SYSTEM.BUT THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A MODEL TREND TO MUCH COLDER THERMALPROFILES(ESPECIALLY IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES)ACROSS THE ENTIRECWA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS PRECIP MOVESIN...LOCKING IN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAVOREDPIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AND POSSIBLY TO EVEN NEAR FREEZING AS FAREAST AS THE SANDHILLS/I95 CORRIDOR. WHILE TIMING/AMOUNTS ARE STILLSOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD....THE ANOMALOUSANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE INTRODUCTIONOF BOTH FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZENPRECIP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT(HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION...TRENDING TO A VERY COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST(ALTHOUGH IT COULDBE A MIX AT THE ONSET). SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL POTENTIALLYLIE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAINMIX (DUE TO LIMITED SATURATION ALOFT)EVERYONE IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND POTENTIALWATCHES AND WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW IN THENEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDS.

Meanwhile ffc,  gives us this amazing discussion. If we do get freezing rain with this I bet you they will under play it/wait until the last minute to call for it...especially after the way they over played the last one for reasons I still don't understand since it was clear it would not be a big deal at all for most in north ga.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM. NEXT BEST CHANCEOF RAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAYNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE RAIN MAY ENDBEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. HOWEVER WILL LET NEXT SHIFTTAKE ANOTHER LOOK. LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK LOOKREASONABLE WITH THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

[FallsLake]

Yeah, I'm surprised.  Going with a high of 30 here with snow/sleet (all snow after 11 AM) and a low of 23 with snow likely before midnight.

 

Then again, they are pretty knowledgeable and certainly know more than most of us!

 

RAH is usually pretty conservative with these wintry systems, though.

For my area (Triangle area):

* Friday Snow and sleet likely before 2pm, then snow and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

* Friday Night Snow and freezing rain likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%

[avianman]

Hmm, seems like RAH is jumping the gun a little, going with Snow Likely on Friday and Friday night for the Triad.

Yet, GSP has freezing rain for Hickory Friday and Friday night.

[triadwx]

Yeah, I'm surprised.  Going with a high of 30 here with snow/sleet (all snow after 11 AM) and a low of 23 with snow likely before midnight.

 

Then again, they are pretty knowledgeable and certainly know more than most of us!

 

RAH is usually pretty conservative with these wintry systems, though.  If they are staking their claim three days out, I'd have to think that bodes well for us.  Remember that they are using meteorology, not modelology!

 

You're right. But late January of 2011 sticks in my mind. When they had snow likely four days out and it turned into nothing but a cold rain. 

[franklin NCwx]

So it's NOGAPS, UKIE, and GGEM against EURO and GFS.  This is shaping up like Alabama versus Notre Dame. 

The nogaps just has more qpf. It has a similar track to the euro. Im not sure what the ukie does after 72 but it is amped up pretty good.

[msuwx]

This is what I've been told. The thing the models don't do a good job of though is temperatures dropping at the surface due to evaparotional cooling. The 18z nam for example has some light precip with temps essentially staying the same....which is virtually impossible with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s in north ga and dewpoints in the teens with a deep and cold  boundary layer. Even light precip would cause temps to drop easily with that.

 

Now IF it was a very shallow cold layer...say only up to 975mb and strong waa aloft, you can have temps in the low 30s/dewpoints in the teens when the precip starts but due to the shallow nature of the cold air it mixes out and temps won't drop. Been burnt on that before. Essentially what I'm saying is you have to have a certain depth to along with the cold air at the surface from my experience.

Worrying about what the 18z nam is showing is silly.

This is all true. Now, I have definitely seen situations where the precip is simply too light in order to achieve the wet bulb temperature..... dewpoint climbs at a faster rate and temp drops at a slower rate than you'd expect with steady precip.

[franklin NCwx]

Afternoon discussion out of GSP:

 

THERE IS

SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING LOW WILL BE ABLE TO BUDGE

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...WHICH COULD KEEP US UNDER A

WEDGE OF COLD AIR. GFS AND NAM SEEM TO THINK THE CAD WILL ERODE

DURING THE DAY FRI. HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH HIGH TEMPS THAT

REFLECT THAT. PRECIP TYPE DOES BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OVER MAINLY NC

GIVEN SUBFREEZING TEMPS THERE FRI MORNING.  IF THE WARM AIR IS ABLE

TO PUSH NORTH MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.  THE AREAS THAT DO SEE

FROZEN PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH THE

MOISTURE BEING CONCENTRATED NEAR THE GROUND...SIMILAR TO THE THU

EVENT.

 

I bet they are very conservative on this event after how bad last week turned out here in the mtn's. A lot of people I talked to are upset about not really getting any snow after hearing 3-6 inches.

[Bevo]

We need just enough gulf tap to help juice up the column here in NW SC and NE Ga then another .25" to fall as snow and I will be satisfied!

 

Therein lies one of the issues (from the beginning) - I don't see how it can dig far enough south to accomplish capturing gulf moisture.

[Poimen]

For my area (Triangle area):

* Friday Snow and sleet likely before 2pm, then snow and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

* Friday Night Snow and freezing rain likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%

that's pretty bullish given how far away we are. Hope they are right.

[ILMRoss]

Hmm, seems like RAH is jumping the gun a little, going with Snow Likely on Friday and Friday night for the Triad.

Agreed. This is contrasting with ILM's conservative forecast. RAH is forecasting high 30s and a rain/snow mix in the morning in Sampson County while  ILM is forecasting high 50's with rain a county over in Pender County! 

[rduwx]

I have to admit I'm shocked that RAH already has my area as a wintry mix for Friday and Friday night.

[FallsLake]

that's pretty bullish given how far away we are. Hope they are right.

I think we are in one of those situations where the models cannot be used to determine the setup. RAH actaully has been discussing this winter weather potential for a couple of days; when the models were much farther north with the low. This is why we still need meteorologist. The day that the computer provides the official forecast is not yet here.

[calculus1]

Hmm, seems like RAH is jumping the gun a little, going with Snow Likely on Friday and Friday night for the Triad.

 

 

Yet, GSP has freezing rain for Hickory Friday and Friday night.

 

 

I think we can garner from these two posts that RAH is putting more faith in the ECMWF solution while GSP is leaning more towards the GFS.  Met fight?!

[tnweathernut]

When has the NOGAPS ever been right on a qpf forecast?  I would think you could pretty much discount it - but they keep it around so it has to have some redeeming quality, right?  But, what is it? 

[franklin NCwx]

When has the NOGAPS ever been right on a qpf forecast?  I would think you could pretty much discount it - but they keep it around so it has to have some redeeming quality, right?  But, what is it? 

It gives us the most snow, it is correct. If it starts to look dry or too warm then we toss it.

[deltadog03]

If I were in ATL and points E and NE I would be paying attention to timing on this thing, this could sneak in a little ZR/IP....In fact, the RPM has got a little "wintry" precip from HSV and down to ATL by Friday mid-day.  Snow over WNC and high country.  Timing would HAVE to speed up again though.  RPM is quicker bringing this through in the AM vs PM

[tnweathernut]

MRX not biting, and their discussion is good - but which model is indicating STRONG warm air advection?  It's not like we have a negative tilt bomb here.  I would think there would be some WAA just based on the track of the low, but would think it would be less than "strong".

 

000
FXUS64 KMRX 221952
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REVEALING A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. BEFORE THEN...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN ABOVE-FREEZING
850 TO 750 MB LAYER PRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET...OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A QUICK
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.
 

[WilkesboroDude]

NWS Blacksburg removing mixed ptypes...

Another very frigid morning

with wind expected Thursday morning as the reinforcing surge of Arctic

air moves into the region. This will leave the area in excellent

condition for a more significant winter weather event Friday.

For Friday...model differences arise regarding precipitation amounts...but

all models are sending a clear signal of a much colder atmosphere

in place as a northern stream short wave moves rapidly toward the

region from the northwest Thursday night. The Thursday system will ensure

that this is the case. Expect 850mb temperatures to be near -10c or

colder and surface temperatures in the teens to low 20s across much of the

County Warning Area early Friday as the precipitation spreads into the region. BUFKIT

soundings and model profiles now suggest a nearly all snow

event...and as such...I have removed any mention of freezing rain/r with this

event. Even places like Caswell/Danville fail with most scenarios

to rise above freezing all day...and with dewpoints starting out

in the teens across the Piedmont...this can easily be believed.

And...the operational run of the GFS is warmer than most ensemble

members. The European model (ecmwf) is even colder than the GFS...depicting a

definite snow event. The problem is with quantitative precipitation forecast. The GFS shows a

classic New River valley split in the quantitative precipitation forecast...while the European model (ecmwf) shows

a solid area of 0.25 or more quantitative precipitation forecast across the County Warning Area in the 12z Friday to

00z Sat time frame. The GFS is also faster than the European model (ecmwf) with

this system. For now...have gone with a 75 percent European model (ecmwf)/25

percent GFS blend...leaning toward the coldest/wettest solution.

Snow amounts will potentially meet warning criteria in the upslope

areas of our WV counties...and advisory criteria across most if

not all of the remainder of the County Warning Area.

[franklin NCwx]

MRX not biting, and their discussion is good - but which model is indicating STRONG warm air advection?  It's not like we have a negative tilt bomb here.  I would think there would be some WAA just based on the track of the low, but would think it would be less than "strong".

 

000

FXUS64 KMRX 221952

AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

250 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL

AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REVEALING A WEAK LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH

THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. BEFORE THEN...A WEAK COLD

FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO INCLUDE A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG

WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE TN

RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN ABOVE-FREEZING

850 TO 750 MB LAYER PRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX

OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET...OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THURSDAY

NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON

FRIDAY...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL

MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A QUICK

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL

CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING...BEFORE A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE

EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WARM AIR

ADVECTION PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR

TEMPS...WILL TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE

EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE

MEANS.

 

There seems to be a warm nose above 850 on the American models.

[griteater]

When has the NOGAPS ever been right on a qpf forecast?  I would think you could pretty much discount it - but they keep it around so it has to have some redeeming quality, right?  But, what is it? 

Well, it's a Naval model...so, I suspect it makes it's hay in remote oceanic locations around the world.

[Lookout]

This is all true. Now, I have definitely seen situations where the precip is simply too light in order to achieve the wet bulb temperature..... dewpoint climbs at a faster rate and temp drops at a slower rate than you'd expect with steady precip.

Agree..I've seen that plenty of times as well. To be clear though  what I was referring to also was the models not picking up on temps simply dropping some if there is appreciable precip (not necessarily reaching the wetbulb). The 12z gfs for example has enough precip that should drop the temp several degrees but instead it shows no temp drop and this is often the case for whatever reason. It's one reason why they often erode the wedge too quickly because they don't pick up on the lower temps after evaparation which of course makes it that more difficult to erode.

 

The 18z nam though is not a good situation lol. In fact, other than the gfs and maybe the canadian or god forbid the nogaps, the models aren't showing much here anyway.

 

I wish we would have a classic cad situation with a lot of precip. Almost seems like they have gone extinct.

[beanskip]

18z GFS -- at 63 hours, very similar placement of s/w as 12z run -- but a little less consolidated. Surface feature maybe a touch weaker -- all minor changes, though -- looks very similar.

[eastkywx]

MRX not biting, and their discussion is good - but which model is indicating STRONG warm air advection?  It's not like we have a negative tilt bomb here.  I would think there would be some WAA just based on the track of the low, but would think it would be less than "strong".

 

000

FXUS64 KMRX 221952

AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

250 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL

AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REVEALING A WEAK LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH

THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. BEFORE THEN...A WEAK COLD

FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO INCLUDE A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG

WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE TN

RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN ABOVE-FREEZING

850 TO 750 MB LAYER PRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX

OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET...OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THURSDAY

NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON

FRIDAY...AND GENERALLY INDICATE THAT ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL

MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A QUICK

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL

CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING...BEFORE A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE

EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WARM AIR

ADVECTION PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR

TEMPS...WILL TREND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH THE

EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE

MEANS.

 

Jackson, KY's discussion sounds very similar to this, as they have actually gone as far as to give amounts already for my area.  They are calling for a general 1-3 here in East KY.  Still think it's way too early to start tossing out numbers at this point.

[burgertime]

@75 all ZR for NC. 

[beanskip]

not much of it, either -- very similar to 12z run.

@75 all ZR for NC. 

[burgertime]

not much of it, either -- very similar to 12z run.

 

We get spared. .25 for upstate, mountains and those in the eastern favored CAD areas. Around .10 for those in between in the favored CAD areas.

[deltadog03]

RPM run....Stop by and say Hi, or "like" our page if you don't mind!  Thank you!

 

https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert

[WilkesboroDude]

Looks more showery...qpf just don't fall straight lines of .10 of an inch.

 

.25 would be a considerable amount of ice, but some of that could fall in initial patchy mixed virga/sleet/flakes. 

[burrel2]

SREF member precip totals.  Most of the members either clobber us or don’t generate much precip for anybody.  None of the members are amped up/ farther North like the canadian.

 

edit: maybe one or two of them amped up like the CMC.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTSE_15z/srefloop.html