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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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Brad PanovichWEATHER UPDATE: Based on the short range HRRR model that large area of FREEZING RAIN that has caused major problems in eastern Tennessee will be here around 3pm. It will last until about 8pm. This will be very icy stuff. The ground temperature is only 35° the air temperature is just 27°. This will all freeze on contact, be ready now to stay off the roads during those times.

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29.2ºF at DaculaWeather.com right now. We are still in the CAD. Very light precip can be seen as darkened pavement on my webcam right now. I've had reports of trees and shrubs, mailboxes, etc, being covered in a thin glaze. I am NE of Atlanta about 50 miles from downtowm, still a suburb though. 

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Where did all the Georgia posters go? I want to know how Atlanta is fairing.

Weatherunderground has them a high of 57 today. They are already at 37. Is the event over with there? I know schools and stuff closed across north Georgia.

Temps are above freezing in most of metro Atlanta and there's no precip. It's 42 at my location 45 miles west of Atlanta.
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12z NAM is wetter for central NC. Beginning of a trend?

 

When I see comments like this from you, I know to be interested.

 

Moving on, though.

 

For my area (East of I-95) there is expected to be mostly rain, a little sleet.  We're already at 30 at PGV but with the dew point so low and thick cloud cover, my hope would be that this early band drops the temps somewhat to keep us in the running for the big event.

 

With the trend being wetter and wetter, chances are someones gonna end up with a bad ice storm it's just a question of where at this point.  Wilson-Greenville, somewhere in that area, would be my best guess though it's hard to really say and that's 100% a guess.

 

Good luck to the folks further out west than us down east.  Hope for a nice event for ya

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Temps are above freezing in most of metro Atlanta and there's no precip. It's 42 at my location 45 miles west of Atlanta.

I'm sure the temps will be much different the further west you go. I'm in Sandy Springs and it has only gone up to 33. Alpharetta is still at 32.

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Vectors top of this page (42) are 850. Some of those robust radar echos over here in TN are sleet bright banding. However mdt rain is in progress. Knoxville is a mess. TRI changed over to mainly ice, so I expect they will be added to the ice storm warning. Knoxville has no prayer of seeing 32 today which is well under MOS. The 00Z WRF/NAM nailed the TRI disaster and almost got the Knox. Sfc temps way closer than MOS.

 

NC did well to see some precip hit the ground earlier. While snow in the South often under-achieves, ice in the CAD zone almost always over-achieves. NWP and MOS getting way better just in the last 10-15 years, but you still have to chain-saw MOS east of the Apps. Chattanooga is about the only place MOS does well. It's right for the wrong reasons, but you can still go with it. Back to NC...

 

Be careful what you wish for, if you like having power. Light qpf will help matters in NC. Also deeper cold air may promote more sleet than freezing rain. That said, I'm still afraid some east slopes and even large parts of the Piedmont will have enough ice accumulation to create some power outages. Just due to the cold everything that falls will stick to trees and power lines. Obviously roads are hosed immediately due to the cold. Not sure why anybody even had school. Good call upping to warning in places. Might need more...

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I have a very real concern about the blob of precip headed SE toward Atlanta. We're still well below freezing over here on the NE side and I still have a wet bulb of 26.8ºF It appears it might get here about the time the schools are letting out. This could be a disaster for afternoon traffic here. Has me a little worried.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_georgia.php

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