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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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This will be my last OT post here...haha thanks for the kind words but lookout is right...I was just really annoyed.  It didn't hurt my feelings and it certainly wouldn't be the first timeout I've ever been given on this board  :bag:

 

Nobody wants you banned you contribute here more than anybody. 

-

I bet this has some drooling right about now...or it could just be me.

184643_396476817111985_1554179304_n.jpg

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I don't think Robert will be right with this one...its already reaching the ground...again...short range models doing work.

 

379641_571236706239722_1331742592_n.jpg

 

My initial reaction based on the virga depicted in the graphic was that you were implying that Robert's forecast was a bust based on the graphic. Just some thoughts on my part for what it is worth...

 

#1) The graphic really had nothing to do with your statement (I think :unsure:) and was what mislead me into a knee-jerk reaction. It would have been better left off.

#2) Adding Robert's name led me to think that you were specifically calling out Robert, who is well thought of on this board. This resulted in the responses you observed in this thread. Many posted the same thoughts as Robert but you specifically seemed to focus on him. Better process next time would have been to question the general forecast and leave specific names out unless you want to pointedly respond directly to them.

#3) I found you to have made a very valid point in your post after rereading it leaving out the graphic and Robert's name.

 

FWIW

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Two questions:

 

1) Is NW SC and SW NC expected to see any of the heavier precip hitting Tennessee at this time, or are we relying on the spotty precip further south? Or are returns expected to back/build?

 

2) What is making the southern part of the mountains seem to break up the precip more than the northern NC mountains?

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Two questions:

 

1) Is NW SC and SW NC expected to see any of the heavier precip hitting Tennessee at this time, or are we relying on the spotty precip further south? Or are returns expected to back/build?

 

2) What is making the southern part of the mountains seem to break up the precip more than the northern NC mountains?

 

I would think surely we are relying on spotty precip from here on - especially as this disturbance migrates north.  Having said that, the early sleet took me by surprise.

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I don't want to call him out...I like him. But I want others to be aware of how good these short range models are performing compared to the GFS/EURO for WNC. I did forecast accumulations back this way.

Now you're being a wuss and backpedaling because you got called on it. Below is what you posted. How is that about making others aware of the short term models?

I don't think Robert will be right with this one...its already reaching the ground...again...short range models doing work.

 

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If the heavy band in TN stays intact and crosses NC, it has the potential to put down over .25 qpf.  Whatever form that is, it is significant and even warning criteria.  Since there's been little virga, I think there's a better chance this band will not dry up as the models depicted and there will be a bigger problem this afternoon.

 

TW

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New WSW up ~ GSP

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1052 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING....A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTOTHE AREA...AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYTODAY. THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE FAIRLY LIGHT IN MOST AREAS...WILLFALL INTO A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WINTRY MIX OFSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY FREEZINGRAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST SLEETACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE THE MOST ICE MAY OCCUR IN THENORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILLLOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONSOF ICE ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS... WITH PERHAPS A BITMORE SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THEPRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.NCZ033-048>050-501>506-260000-/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130126T0400Z//O.EXA.KGSP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130126T0400Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE1052 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.* HAZARDS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF  SLEET...BUT ALSO MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE  AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH UP TO 1  INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* IMPACTS...ICE AND SLEET WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS TO  BECOME SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON  BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A FEW POWER OUTAGES COULD RESULT FROM  DOWNED TREE LIMBS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN  MOUNTAINS...AND MID 20S IN THE FOOTHILLS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
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If the heavy band in TN stays intact and crosses NC, it has the potential to put down over .25 qpf.  Whatever form that is, it is significant and even warning criteria.  Since there's been little virga, I think there's a better chance this band will not dry up as the models depicted and there will be a bigger problem this afternoon.

 

TW

 

Yeah, check out the 850 mb moisture transport below.  There's a lot of moisture to come this afternoon.

 

 

nnjNcP1.png

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On radar, I don't see any northerly component to this heavier band at all.  Seems to be moving almost due east. 

TW

 

Yeah, those arrows don't indicate the direction of the surface precip.  They indicate moisture transport and just show that there is a lot moisture at 850 mb from the SW that will be progressing to the NE.  As that rides up and over the cold air at the surface, we should get a good shot of precipitation this afternoon.

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Yeah, those arrows don't indicate the direction of the surface precip.  They indicate moisture transport and just show that there is a lot moisture at 850 mb from the SW that will be progressing to the NE.  As that rides up and over the cold air at the surface, we should get a good shot of precipitation this afternoon.

Bard P had a great post on Facebook about this a little while ago. Something to watch!!

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