magpiemaniac Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Light sleet falling in Greensboro. Second confirmation in GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Flurries here with little sleet reporting 15 miles northeast of Greensboro! Surprised it is falling already? I noticed heavy returns out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't give a f*ck. He is just stating what COULD happen and what models are showing. You are such a tool dude. You need to cool it with the language and personal attacks. Consider this a verbal warning, next time you be given a timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't give a f*ck. He is just stating what COULD happen and what models are showing. You are such a tool dude. don't worry about it Burger. Robert saw it and said "Kids these day" Right now Robert's Dad is in bad shape so I appreciate his thoughts during these bad times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You need to cool it with the language and personal attacks. Consider this a verbal warning, next time you be given a timeout. Sorry he just really grinds my gears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sorry he just really grinds my gears. A-men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Burger you the most important on here for your time and efforts especially for the PBP. Let's get back on track with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sorry he just really grinds my gears. I hear ya. You're the last person that needs a timeout. We love you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sorry he just really grinds my gears. Your contributions and time spent on this board are greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This will be my last OT post here...haha thanks for the kind words but lookout is right...I was just really annoyed. It didn't hurt my feelings and it certainly wouldn't be the first timeout I've ever been given on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So looking at some posts here it seems the event will overpreform? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So looking at some posts here it seems the event will overpreform? Correct? Looks like it now. Hi-Res NAM was killing many of these bands as they went over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This will be my last OT post here...haha thanks for the kind words but lookout is right...I was just really annoyed. It didn't hurt my feelings and it certainly wouldn't be the first timeout I've ever been given on this board Nobody wants you banned you contribute here more than anybody. - I bet this has some drooling right about now...or it could just be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Returns are REALLY picking up over middle TN. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_mid_south.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Latest RAP showing a nice max band just south of I-40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Nobody wants you banned you contribute here more than anybody. - I bet this has some drooling right about now...or it could just be me. Not here in Knoxville. We're already glazed over and don't need anymore ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't think Robert will be right with this one...its already reaching the ground...again...short range models doing work. My initial reaction based on the virga depicted in the graphic was that you were implying that Robert's forecast was a bust based on the graphic. Just some thoughts on my part for what it is worth... #1) The graphic really had nothing to do with your statement (I think ) and was what mislead me into a knee-jerk reaction. It would have been better left off. #2) Adding Robert's name led me to think that you were specifically calling out Robert, who is well thought of on this board. This resulted in the responses you observed in this thread. Many posted the same thoughts as Robert but you specifically seemed to focus on him. Better process next time would have been to question the general forecast and leave specific names out unless you want to pointedly respond directly to them. #3) I found you to have made a very valid point in your post after rereading it leaving out the graphic and Robert's name. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Two questions: 1) Is NW SC and SW NC expected to see any of the heavier precip hitting Tennessee at this time, or are we relying on the spotty precip further south? Or are returns expected to back/build? 2) What is making the southern part of the mountains seem to break up the precip more than the northern NC mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Two questions: 1) Is NW SC and SW NC expected to see any of the heavier precip hitting Tennessee at this time, or are we relying on the spotty precip further south? Or are returns expected to back/build? 2) What is making the southern part of the mountains seem to break up the precip more than the northern NC mountains? I would think surely we are relying on spotty precip from here on - especially as this disturbance migrates north. Having said that, the early sleet took me by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yep. The heavier precip wasn't even supposed to start yet, and I am about to cliff jump. If only I could chase to the family lake house on Gaston around Roanoke Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't want to call him out...I like him. But I want others to be aware of how good these short range models are performing compared to the GFS/EURO for WNC. I did forecast accumulations back this way. Now you're being a wuss and backpedaling because you got called on it. Below is what you posted. How is that about making others aware of the short term models? I don't think Robert will be right with this one...its already reaching the ground...again...short range models doing work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If the heavy band in TN stays intact and crosses NC, it has the potential to put down over .25 qpf. Whatever form that is, it is significant and even warning criteria. Since there's been little virga, I think there's a better chance this band will not dry up as the models depicted and there will be a bigger problem this afternoon. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 New WSW up ~ GSP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1052 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING....A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTOTHE AREA...AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYTODAY. THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE FAIRLY LIGHT IN MOST AREAS...WILLFALL INTO A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WINTRY MIX OFSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY FREEZINGRAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST SLEETACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE THE MOST ICE MAY OCCUR IN THENORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILLLOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONSOF ICE ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS... WITH PERHAPS A BITMORE SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THEPRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.NCZ033-048>050-501>506-260000-/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130126T0400Z//O.EXA.KGSP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130126T0400Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE1052 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.* HAZARDS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET...BUT ALSO MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* IMPACTS...ICE AND SLEET WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A FEW POWER OUTAGES COULD RESULT FROM DOWNED TREE LIMBS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND MID 20S IN THE FOOTHILLS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If the heavy band in TN stays intact and crosses NC, it has the potential to put down over .25 qpf. Whatever form that is, it is significant and even warning criteria. Since there's been little virga, I think there's a better chance this band will not dry up as the models depicted and there will be a bigger problem this afternoon. TW Yeah, check out the 850 mb moisture transport below. There's a lot of moisture to come this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Latest briefing from NWS Raleigh. Doesn't sound like much has changed. http://static.ow.ly/docs/25Jan2013_11AM_briefing_117Y.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah, check out the 850 mb moisture transport below. There's a lot of moisture to come this afternoon. On radar, I don't see any northerly component to this heavier band at all. Seems to be moving almost due east. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On radar, I don't see any northerly component to this heavier band at all. Seems to be moving almost due east. TW Yeah, those arrows don't indicate the direction of the surface precip. They indicate moisture transport and just show that there is a lot moisture at 850 mb from the SW that will be progressing to the NE. As that rides up and over the cold air at the surface, we should get a good shot of precipitation this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That's a very heavy batch of precip in TN.That does look to be heading due east.if that holds together into NC,that will be tree breaking,powerline downing accumulations! Maybe it can slide a little S, and bring the upstate a little more action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah, those arrows don't indicate the direction of the surface precip. They indicate moisture transport and just show that there is a lot moisture at 850 mb from the SW that will be progressing to the NE. As that rides up and over the cold air at the surface, we should get a good shot of precipitation this afternoon. Bard P had a great post on Facebook about this a little while ago. Something to watch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 HRRR seems to be coming in wetter and wetter for NC. It's not huge but it looks like the trend is for more to fall than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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