WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Notice that giant question mark.....you are too much bro. eh...if you want more from his FB that is not encouraging....I will post it. 13 hours ago The dewpoints in VA, NC, and SC will be incredibly low tomorrow , so this will limit the amount of moisture that makes it to the ground. Dewpoints of single digits and even some subzero dewpoints are showing up in Piedmont VA/NC midday tomorrow. This could cause the first few hours of precip to evaporate before reaching the ground. 10 hours ago For the folks in the downwind side (lee of Southern Apps) the new High Res. NAM has no precipitation in parts of Buncombe, northern Henderson, Polk Counties and only 1/100 (trace event) in most of Rutherford, Cleveland,, Lincoln counties and only about 2/100 (trace event) in the vast majority of western Piedmont NC, lower Foothills, upper SC to just east of Asheville region. Also, in north Central Virginia, only trace amounts. This is even less than what was shown, which lines up well with my thoughts that there will be a relative minimum precip zone in that region. On the other end of the precip spectrum, good amounts in ne TN, sw VA and northeast NC, southeast VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 eh...if you want more from his FB that is not encouraging....I will post it. 13 hours ago The dewpoints in VA, NC, and SC will be incredibly low tomorrow , so this will limit the amount of moisture that makes it to the ground. Dewpoints of single digits and even some subzero dewpoints are showing up in Piedmont VA/NC midday tomorrow. This could cause the first few hours of precip to evaporate before reaching the ground. 10 hours ago For the folks in the downwind side (lee of Southern Apps) the new High Res. NAM has no precipitation in parts of Buncombe, northern Henderson, Polk Counties and only 1/100 (trace event) in most of Rutherford, Cleveland,, Lincoln counties and only about 2/100 (trace event) in the vast majority of western Piedmont NC, lower Foothills, upper SC to just east of Asheville region. Also, in north Central Virginia, only trace amounts. This is even less than what was shown, which lines up well with my thoughts that there will be a relative minimum precip zone in that region. On the other end of the precip spectrum, good amounts in ne TN, sw VA and northeast NC, southeast VA. I don't give a f*ck. He is just stating what COULD happen and what models are showing. You are such a tool dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't give a f*ck. He is just stating what COULD happen and what models are showing. You are such a tool dude. It could happen, I just thought it would not happen since it is hitting the ground now. I will move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 eh...if you want more from his FB that is not encouraging....I will post it. 13 hours ago The dewpoints in VA, NC, and SC will be incredibly low tomorrow , so this will limit the amount of moisture that makes it to the ground. Dewpoints of single digits and even some subzero dewpoints are showing up in Piedmont VA/NC midday tomorrow. This could cause the first few hours of precip to evaporate before reaching the ground. 10 hours ago For the folks in the downwind side (lee of Southern Apps) the new High Res. NAM has no precipitation in parts of Buncombe, northern Henderson, Polk Counties and only 1/100 (trace event) in most of Rutherford, Cleveland,, Lincoln counties and only about 2/100 (trace event) in the vast majority of western Piedmont NC, lower Foothills, upper SC to just east of Asheville region. Also, in north Central Virginia, only trace amounts. This is even less than what was shown, which lines up well with my thoughts that there will be a relative minimum precip zone in that region. On the other end of the precip spectrum, good amounts in ne TN, sw VA and northeast NC, southeast VA. I think pretty much anyone that knows about weather, including many mets, are very surprised that it's reaching the ground already with these dew points. If he's going to be "wrong" a lot of other mets will too. No one in their right mind would forecast heavy accumulation with the low precip progged on the models for the lee side as well as the dewpoints and the climatology of that area with these systems. So just wait until the storm passed and then you can call him out, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Maybe the low temps being relatively close to the dewpoints can account for the lack of virga? If areas get every bit of the .2 inches of precip that most models average out with, it's going to be a long day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think pretty much anyone that knows about weather, including many mets, are very surprised that it's reaching the ground already with these dew points. If he's going to be "wrong" a lot of other mets will too. No one in their right mind would forecast heavy accumulation with the low precip progged on the models for the lee side as well as the dewpoints and the climatology of that area with these systems. So just wait until the storm passed and then you can call him out, yeah? I was shocked to hear the sleet coming down this morning in Asheville; however, it was brief and has stopped. The radar returns in TN now show precip weakening as it hits the mountains; so not convince Asheville will get much more but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sleet hitting the ground in uptown charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatriotWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sleeting lightly in concord, nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This is probably a bit of banter here, but Wilkes.......it's posts like yours that make it difficult to get other good mets to want to post their ideas here..... Weather is changeable and difficult to forecast. No need to beat the "wrong" drum when the scientific reasoning behind the forecast is solid. on topic: looks like my call for limited snow here at KTRI will easily be realized. When you start out as ip and zr it's hard to get a snow accumulation.....haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This is probably a bit of banter here, but Wilkes.......it's posts like yours that make it difficult to get other good mets to want to post their ideas here..... Weather is changeable and difficult to forecast. No need to beat the "wrong" drum when the scientific reasoning behind the forecast is solid. on topic: looks like my call for limited snow here at KTRI will easily be realized. When you start out as ip and zr it's hard to get a snow accumulation.....haha. A-men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think pretty much anyone that knows about weather, including many mets, are very surprised that it's reaching the ground already with these dew points. If he's going to be "wrong" a lot of other mets will too. No one in their right mind would forecast heavy accumulation with the low precip progged on the models for the lee side as well as the dewpoints and the climatology of that area with these systems. So just wait until the storm passed and then you can call him out, yeah? I don't want to call him out...I like him. But I want others to be aware of how good these short range models are performing compared to the GFS/EURO for WNC. I did forecast accumulations back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NASpear Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think pretty much anyone that knows about weather, including many mets, are very surprised that it's reaching the ground already with these dew points. If he's going to be "wrong" a lot of other mets will too. No one in their right mind would forecast heavy accumulation with the low precip progged on the models for the lee side as well as the dewpoints and the climatology of that area with these systems. So just wait until the storm passed and then you can call him out, yeah? I do not think he was calling anyone out. He was just stating that low dp was not going to be a factor as been discussed here. He used Roberts discussion to answer burgers question about the ? mark. Sorry,he did use Robert's name and forecast on his post so I would say he did call him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Perhaps check IDs at the door? A-men This is probably a bit of banter here, but Wilkes.......it's posts like yours that make it difficult to get other good mets to want to post their ideas here..... Weather is changeable and difficult to forecast. No need to beat the "wrong" drum when the scientific reasoning behind the forecast is solid. on topic: looks like my call for limited snow here at KTRI will easily be realized. When you start out as ip and zr it's hard to get a snow accumulation.....haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Latest RAP initialization on sim radar reflectivity not really picking up the returns in NC. The heavier stuff isn't even supposed to get here until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Great catch! The little bit of returns I had this morning around 7:15am really put it down in the 15 minutes it lasted. Lets hope the heavy stuff comes in as shown.. Latest RAP initialization on sim radar reflectivity not really picking up the returns in NC. The heavier stuff isn't even supposed to get here until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's good that the precip is arriving quickly, as it should really lock in the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't want to call him out...I like him. But I want others to be aware of how good these short range models are performing compared to the GFS/EURO for WNC. I did forecast accumulations back this way. what do you want a COOKIE? You write all over this board like your somebody special. Your a newbie here. People respect others and talk about starting the next thread for a storm. YOU just BARGE in and do what you think is right for the board. STEP BACK and follow the lead of veteran people and LEARN. Just my 2 cents. Delete if you need to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORWX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Flurries/sleet near pti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 on topic: looks like my call for limited snow here at KTRI will easily be realized. When you start out as ip and zr it's hard to get a snow accumulation.....haha. Dang, was hoping to see the video of you eating your car. DT bust in that area. That's what's awesome about this place...never underestimate the local knowledge folks have on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORWX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Flurries/sleet near pti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 what do you want a COOKIE? You write all over this board like your somebody special. Your a newbie here. People respect others and talk about starting the next thread for a storm. YOU just BARGE in and do what you think is right for the board. STEP BACK and follow the lead of veteran people and LEARN. I respect them, I have learned a lot from Robert. I feel we should comment on each others forecast, it brings discussion to the table. Carry on let's get back on track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I respect them, I have learned a lot from Robert. I feel we should comment on each others forecast, it brings discussion to the table. Carry on let's get back on track! Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z NAM is wetter for central NC. Beginning of a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 A few light flurries making it to the ground now here - been seeing the virga overhead for a while now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Dang, was hoping to see the video of you eating your car. DT bust in that area. That's what's awesome about this place...never underestimate the local knowledge folks have on here. We do have a very good board here and we usually stay ahead of every media outlet bc of the knowledge mets and amateurs alike share here. We have the best weatherboard, but we also share the best subforum too. Thanks to everyone that shares in a respectful way.... I am also glad my car is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I respect them, I have learned a lot from Robert. I feel we should comment on each others forecast, it brings discussion to the table. Carry on let's get back on track! New NAM looking wetter for your area it appears. Good luck out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z NAM is wetter for central NC. Beginning of a trend? That's good. Maybe finally a trend for the better. Hopefully the short range models will continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Flurries/sleet near pti Same here, man. This is a good bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Light sleet falling in Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Can we pin the obs thread so we don't mix (pun intended!) reports amongst discussion? Here's the current critical thicknesses over the SE. It demonstrates why TN is getting pounded with IP/ZR rather than snow. Also, the Triad seems to currently still be in the snow sector while Hickory and points to the SW are getting IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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