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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Good points. I agree.


While I agree with your particular case, I think the "models you should look at" vary depending on the type of storm and what the models tend to do with those types. For instance, with an ULL like last week I would indeed look at the GFS and NAM the night before the event, for the very same reasons you're saying that you were looking at the 5h. For this particular event I think it's best to look at the short range models because of how much energy this system is lacking and because it's a "smaller" system that mind you hasn't even formed yet. I'm not saying I know anything about which models handle ULL's better and which don't, because I don't know, but I have a hunch that trends in the NAM and GFS would still be important with a system like that.

 

I heard about the RAP in DC, possibly from you or on twitter, can't remember...some people discount short range models but it pretty much won for DCA.

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

I think it's hilarious that even some counties that are in the advisory and not the warning have cancelled school. Why on earth would you cancel school over a little freezing drizzle ?

Because you don't want to put lives in danger? If they feel its possible that there could be life-threatening conditions on the roads, they'll close.  

 

 

I agree with Moto. Looks like 0z models came in warmer. This one feels like another non-event. Really sucks cause a few days ago I felt we had a good chance of getting a 3-day weekend. :(

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

We're talking about the difference b/n .1 and .3 lol... Not a huge difference there when we're referecning sleet. That's prob the differenc b/n an inch or a half inch of sleet. Either way it's a mess. Freezing rain it could be a bigger deal, but i have a hard time seeing anyone getting all ZR from this, but instead a mixed bag.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

We're talking about the difference b/n .1 and .3 lol... Not a huge difference there when we're referecning sleet. That's prob the differenc b/n an inch or a half inch of sleet. Either way it's a mess. Freezing rain it could be a bigger deal, but i have a hard time seeing anyone getting all ZR from this, but instead a mixed bag.

It does seem like we are going through a lot of effort to find all the models that show 0.25" of precip for our backyard...

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Thanks -- I know that a saturated column means temperature and dewpoint eventually meet and kiss -- guess the precip isn't heavy enough for that to happen this time?

Anyway, point well taken -- you clearly understand the point I was making. Nice to see a bit more juice in the 0z GFS.

Another good thing to do is to track how actual sfc temperatures are matching up with the models.  For example, the 18z GFS MOS 9hr forecast for 10PM tonight had CLT with a temp of 29 and a dewpoint of 7....actual value at 10PM was 29/2.  Again, this cold air mass is the real deal at the surface.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/NC.AVN.htm

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Another good thing to do is to track how actual sfc temperatures are matching up with the models.  For example, the 18z GFS MOS 9hr forecast for 10PM tonight had CLT with a temp of 29 and a dewpoint of 7....actual value at 10PM was 29/2.  Again, this cold air mass is the real deal at the surface.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/NC.AVN.htm

 

RAH updated at 9:15pm and had this to say...

 

 

SHOULD MAKE NOTE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND IN THE 18Z GUIDANCEREGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.   BASED ONFORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS MAY BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURATIONOF THE MID-LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST.
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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Something to note:  although the models take in "evaporative cooling" so their QPF maps generaly try to reflect what actually hits the ground.. if at the onset of the event, dewpoints are lower or higher it can either:

 

a: be less precip with a lower dewpoint

b: be more precip with a higher dewpoint

 

EDIT: of course with higher dewpoints you may have to worry about  temps to an extent, although this event looks like that's mainly void for most areas North of SC.

 

Just throwing that out there. :P

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Well I passed 5 different tankers laying down salt brine one the way home tonight in Pitt Co so I guess they are thinking its needed. I also had a temp of 17 on the truck before I got into town where it creeped up to 21-22. I cant remember it being this cold at 11pm getting out of work to many other times. The Nam txt keeps us below freezing at the surface for the entire event with .50" of qpf at PGV.....

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

after every update the totals get cut down more :( so sad :(

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml

 

Mine actually went up a little from 0.2 sleet and snow to 0.4 BOOYAH! All joking aside, its going to be a raw day tomorrow and i dont look forward to being outside in it especially if theres any ZR. I think Boone  to Johnson City will see the most interesting weather from this system, snow to sleet to ZR with qpf >.30

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted

Mine actually went up a little from 0.2 sleet and snow to 0.4 BOOYAH! All joking aside, its going to be a raw day tomorrow and i dont look forward to being outside in it especially if theres any ZR. I think Boone  to Johnson City will see the most interesting weather from this system, snow to sleet to ZR with qpf >.30

yea, hopefully this system wont over-preform because that would be a headache getting to work. haha 

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Big time bust potential here in NGA.  Both the GFS and NAM came in a lot warmer at the surface and drier.  Neither model keeps the sub freezing sfc until 21z anymore while both had shown this consistently.  Combine that with the QPF concerns means we could have a non event here and school has already been cancelled in many counties around MBY.

 

Is it possible we have two straight winter storm warnings and we don't see anything at all?  It's possible.  I still think about 1/10" of ice tomorrow up here in far N GA but I am concerned about that even happening.

 

But hey I still have the 0z RGEM to cling to if I we want anything of any significance.

Here in ATL we are not probably going to get much, but I think you are OK up there. A good sign is the echoes already in northern AL, a sprinkle reported at Haleyville south of MSL, this is ahead of schedule. I think far NE GA will see a pretty good ice storm. Here just a few spits before going above freezing.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Here in ATL we are not probably going to get much, but I think you are OK up there. A good sign is the echoes already in northern AL, a sprinkle reported at Haleyville south of MSL, this is ahead of schedule. I think far NE GA will see a pretty good ice storm. Here just a few spits before going above freezing.

 

This is pretty fail for GA and most of SC.  The models failed again until last second.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted 
NWS Raleigh...However... a mountain shadow in quantitative precipitation forecast is hinted at by some hi-res models... and believed just downwind of the Appalachians around Hickory where only a few hundredths are forecast.

- 

I don't think Wilkes/Surry will be shadowed over this time...our further north location should help out...and birds are rarely wrong here when they go into a eating frenzy. 

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

NWS Raleigh...

However... a mountain shadow in quantitative precipitation forecast is hinted at by some hi-res models... and believed

just downwind of the Appalachians around Hickory where only a few hundredths are forecast.

- 

I don't think Wilkes/Surry will be shadowed over this time...our further north location should help out...and birds are rarely wrong here when they go into a eating frenzy. 

Several have said this for days. Wxsouth said this on wednesday.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted
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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

I don't think Robert will be right with this one...its already reaching the ground...again...short range models doing work.

379641_571236706239722_1331742592_n.jpg

Its easy to sit back and say who is right or wrong once an event starts. He and many others said alot of verga on this one. Which should happen with the dewpoints that many have. We all hope there is more than what is expected

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