LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NAM is updating oddly on my source. Went to hour 18 then back to hour 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 While we are slow, where is our system at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 @12 it looks a good bit north with precip over TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 @15 bulk of the precip is dissecting KY and TN border...compared to 18z which had it in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Also remember that even though the NAM may be showing one solution now, we are so close it's going to really be a wait and see from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The simulated radar from the NAM is way off at the start but the RAP looks correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Warmer on the sfc @18...this one looks like it's going to be lacking in the QPF dept. for NC/GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z NAM definitely looks a few hours slower, too. No huge differences from 18z, otherwise. Out to hr 21. EDIT: Precip field is maybe 50 miles further northward, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 While we wait... you can see wind down the back side of the Apps. http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It probably ends up close to the same in NC for qpf compared to the 18z...it is noticeably warmer at the sfc for NE GA, SC and portions of NC. Mountains of NC probably max on QPF along with north eastern sections of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z NAM is definitely wetter for northern NC and a bit drier further south. NE NC gets hammered with IP or ZR, presumably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 QPF is actually not too bad this run, especially for Northern NC and Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 QPF is actually not too bad this run, especially for Northern NC and Southern VA Has the QPF been trending wetter in the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Has the QPF been trending wetter in the NAM? Meh, not really 18z came in wetter. This one goes back to what is was more or less showing before...though it has been trending wetter for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 While we are slow, where is our system at? Yes...there is very loosely organized precipitation in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona moving along with the developing northern energy, but, some of that will not be part of our system! It is a bit startling, more like waiting for thunderstorms to pop in the summer. Predictive radars show that eventually there will result some type of organization of the southern energy. Some predictions show a band at frontal passage and others show something looser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM similar to the 18z for RDU. Looks like around 0.3 inches again of liquid qpf, mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Has the QPF been trending wetter in the NAM? In some areas such as Northern NC yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 How cluttered is this surface map at hour 24? I count 7 LPs somewhere in the vicinity of our storm and 6 HPs in the area. (You can quibble over whether a few of them are related or not.) What a mess! QPF looks decent for TN, KY, NC, and VA. Double rainbow!! What does it all mean???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM similar to the 18z for RDU. Looks like around 0.3 inches again of liquid qpf, mostly sleet. What would .3 liquid translate in terms of the amount of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NE NC is definitely quickly becoming the "sweetspot" for the majority of precip. Well, that area and the tri-state region of TN/VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What would .3 liquid translate in terms of the amount of sleet? According to the ratios of 3:1 that others were so kind to provide me with last night, I'd say you're looking at roughly an inch of sleet on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z NAM showing a significant winter mess for NE TN...snow...to sleet...to freezing rain. Power could be an issue if the model is correct w/ 0.5 - 0.75 liquid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well, on to the next event for most of SC and GA. No precip and temps too warm for us on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What would .3 liquid translate in terms of the amount of sleet? Enough to cover the trash can lids roofs car windshields pavement . Top of Grass blades would still be visible. 1 to 3 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM similar to the 18z for RDU. Looks like around 0.3 inches again of liquid qpf, mostly sleet. Raleigh, When I look at panels 24 and 27 on the NAM, each shows .25 QPF over tidewater, but when you look at total QPF through 36 hours - it still says .25. Shouldn't that reflect at least .50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What would .3 liquid translate in terms of the amount of sleet? Enough to be a pain! But as far as disruption goes much less disruptive than 0.3 inches of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Raleigh, When I look at panels 24 and 27 on the NAM, each shows .25 QPF over tidewater, but when you look at total QPF through 36 hours - it still says .25. Shouldn't that reflect at least .50? That is the precip for the last six hours. You are looking at panels three hours apart so some of that is overlapping. 0z NAM actually knocked off a bit of QPF here in my neck of the woods, but it's all within the margin of error, so no biggie. I'm glad that the NAM is staying fairly consistent with this. Some areas look to be in for a nasty ice storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well those on the lee side of the Apps might be counting their blessings with this one. If it manages to skip over I'm fine with that. NAM simulated radar has .25 just to my south north and east. With from about Mooresville south to just west of Cleveland county with around .10 of QPF. The Hi-Res radar though did put some heavy returns right over MBY but maybe we can get spared the icy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Raleigh, When I look at panels 24 and 27 on the NAM, each shows .25 QPF over tidewater, but when you look at total QPF through 36 hours - it still says .25. Shouldn't that reflect at least .50? I would have to see what images/source you are looking at. Seems like maybe you are looking at 6 hour precip every 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 For those in CAE wondering, we are almost out of any rain chances also now!! Hopefully it won't be cloudy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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