kvegas-wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Forsyth County NC releasing at noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The latest run of the SREF. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_sref_analysis.php It's a cool page but it works a little weird. ah...TY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Forsyth County NC releasing at noon tomorrow. Actually, the WSFCS middle schools are closing at 11:15am. Elementary and Middle get out 3 hrs early (my high schooler won't get out till 12:40...normal dismissal is 3:40). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Should we have a school closing thread or maybe this goes to banter? Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Currently, critical thicknesses look good over the state of NC and NE TN. Of course, I suppose that will all change as the morning progresses and WAA takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Should we have a school closing thread or maybe this goes to banter? Tw Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wil probably get laughed at for asking this, but do clouds moisten the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wil probably get laughed at for asking this, but do clouds moisten the air? Clouds are a product of moisture in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Watch the 700 mb level in these three consecutive frames. Watch how it kind of blows up in the third frame and merges with the northern portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Watch the 700 mb level in these three consecutive frames. Watch how it kind of blows up in the third frame and merges with the northern portion was this modeled by the NAM or GFS? looks interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 As mentioned previously, it's odd that there is literally NOTHING on the radar back until you get to West Texas. It's going to be interesting, with such a weak system, how much it blossoms in the overnight hours. If we could just open the gulf.... any chance of this still happening? Not sure why you would be wishing for that. The warm nose means business if it tapped the gulf this would be a crippling ice storm...there would be the off chance that WAA could warm us just enough to not be ice but it would not bring snow. Either there is pretty much no chance of that happening. All eyes on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Clouds are a product of moisture in the air. So with this storm, the sooner the clouds move in, the better? It's still looking pretty light, right? At what time frame do models really start to become accurate? Are we in that time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 was this modeled by the NAM or GFS? looks interesting!!sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So with this storm, the sooner the clouds move in, the better? It's still looking pretty light, right? At what time frame do models really start to become accurate? Are we in that time frame? The only accurate models are the ones that run backwards. -12 hour GFS -24 hour Euro Both would be accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So with this storm, the sooner the clouds move in, the better? It's still looking pretty light, right? At what time frame do models really start to become accurate? Are we in that time frame? Clouds will really simply help keep it cold so if you want it cold then yes you would want the clouds to move in right around 7am. Right now it does look light but the NAM just spit out some better totals, if that trend continues then it could spell trouble. As for models becoming accurate it's a toss up. Over all the NAM and SREF do well within 24 to 48 hours. Tomorrow all eyes will be on the RAP and HRRR models as they tend to better in the very short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not sure why you would be wishing for that. The warm nose means business if it tapped the gulf this would be a crippling ice storm...there would be the off chance that WAA could warm us just enough to not be ice but it would not bring snow. Either there is pretty much no chance of that happening. All eyes on the 00z. I completely get where you're coming from. However, with weather, I'm always hoping for pretty much the most extreme. I guess it's akin to not being able to look away from a bad car wreck. There are definitely many on this forum in the same boat. Anyways, it's unreal how dry the air is. My DP is currently at 2. There's going to be a lot of virga before anything reaches the ground/trees/roads/anything remotely near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Clouds will really simply help keep it cold so if you want it cold then yes you would want the clouds to move in right around 7am. Right now it does look light but the NAM just spit out some better totals, if that trend continues then it could spell trouble. As for models becoming accurate it's a toss up. Over all the NAM and SREF do well within 24 to 48 hours. Tomorrow all eyes will be on the RAP and HRRR models as they tend to better in the very short term. Do you (or anyone else) have the times that these short-term models run? I know the RAP comes out hourly but the other ones I can never keep up with since I only have the desire to look at them two or three days out of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Do you (or anyone else) have the times that these short-term models run? I know the RAP comes out hourly but the other ones I can never keep up with since I only have the desire to look at them two or three days out of the year. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_run_status.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Never ever, ever ever ever ever ever bet against the HRRR within 15 hours. At least for my area it has been short range money for the past 2-3 years. Heartbreak or glory, HRRR drrr FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Noticed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_run_status.php Thanks Steve. You have so much info on your website, I admit being intimidated by it. I'll have to spend some more time perusing all of the goodies you have put together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I wonder what that's all about, Dacula? Is there just a problem with the models or are they holding them off for some new observations to roll in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Never ever, ever ever ever ever ever bet against the HRRR within 15 hours. At least for my area it has been short range money for the past 2-3 years. Heartbreak or glory, HRRR drrr FTW. HRRR NAM: interesting to see some differences... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Never ever, ever ever ever ever ever bet against the HRRR within 15 hours. At least for my area it has been short range money for the past 2-3 years. Heartbreak or glory, HRRR drrr FTW. HRRR NAM: interesting to see some differences... It's the best simulated radar in the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Never ever, ever ever ever ever ever bet against the HRRR within 15 hours. At least for my area it has been short range money for the past 2-3 years. Heartbreak or glory, HRRR drrr FTW. Its usually spot on or horrendous for any given event and you can tell early on if its got it or not, if its way off at the start don't even bother with it the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 HRRR NAM: interesting to see some differences... On the Hi Res surface radar 18z NAM it's actually pretty close to the HRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Union County schools closed Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Never ever, ever ever ever ever ever bet against the HRRR within 15 hours. At least for my area it has been short range money for the past 2-3 years. Heartbreak or glory, HRRR drrr FTW. Its usually spot on or horrendous for any given event and you can tell early on if its got it or not, if its way off at the start don't even bother with it the rest of the day. That's actually good to know as I'm only speaking anecdotally for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00Z RAP and NAM running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00Z RAP and NAM running... Post graphics please. I am on my phone and have not been able to see some of the ones you guys have posted from links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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