DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Interesting enough he showed ZR here through 11PM tomorrow. I was thinking that it had slowed down and was arriving later... I thought our best chance for anything would have been in the evening. Who knows... The worst part is that there is nothing on radar for hundreds and hundreds or miles from us. Nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks Burger. I feel like that's correct. But I've seen situations where it starts later than expected and the sun is out for a bit and we're at 40 all of a sudden. I feel like we're pretty secure on temps, but I just wanted to throw it out there. This really is starting to feel like an event that could get out of control fast IF the models start upping QPF and it comes to fruition. Lots of people thinking nothing is going to happen especially because of last weekend. This is why I really hate ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Due to the inclement weather forecast, all Randolph County Schools will dismiss at 11:00 a.m. Friday, January 25, 2013. Only breakfast will be served. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 18 NAM is almost all sleet for RDU. 18z GFS looks more freezing rainish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 According to the NWS here, roughly 7am or slightly later depending on where you live. Ok. I would imagine it will not be that bad in the metro area tomorrow morning but it all depends on the timing. After being sunny and 49 today that will probably limit any icing on the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Interesting enough he showed ZR here through 11PM tomorrow. I have no idea from what Glenn is basing this. He's so far out in left field. Also, 0.4" of ZR is nowhere near the ATL-AHN corridor on any model although he may be referring to the highest mountains well to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah Burg, I hear ya. I'm not going to get too pumped over the 18Zs, but if the trend overnight really is back to a .3-.5 event, then folks will not be prepared and now we're talking more than just a minor inconvenience. AND even worse, we'll never hear the end of it from Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I have no idea from what Glenn is basing this. He's so far out in left field. Also, 0.4" of ZR is nowhere near the ATL-AHN corridor on any model although he may be referring to the highest mountains well to the north.. Larry, he did show it up in the mountains. I think they have an in house modeling piece of software, so it may be coming from that? He showed a swath of ZR right over the Gwinnett - AHN corridor around 11PM tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 WVEC's forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pretty damn good chance for freezing rain here according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My backyard DP is 2 right now. Below zero in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What are they basing that graphic on? I mean, that is down to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 WVEC's forecast: WVEC.jpg I guess we can now discuss the major differences between a dusting and a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is spot on with my map from earlier...just prettier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is spot on with my map from earlier...just prettier. And in inches not feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RPM still shows a little love to ATL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pretty damn good chance for freezing rain here according to this SPC SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What are they basing that graphic on? I mean, that is down to me. The latest run of the SREF. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_sref_analysis.php It's a cool page but it works a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What are they basing that graphic on? I mean, that is down to me. I believe that is generated from the 15z SREF mean, kinda looks like the maps from the SPC forecast tools page. DOT has treated most of the major roads in the county with brine, 264 had a milky white appearance on the surface during my drive home. MHX hoisted a WWA with amounts less than 1/10" in the daytime and nighttime grids for tomorrow. 18z NAM cobb output for PGV is 0.2" SN, 0.16" IP & wait for it... 0.37" ZR, i'll pass with temps never making it out of the 20's once the precip arrives. Glad its the NAM and the EC is less than a tenth here, we will see which one verifies but I already have a strong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 As mentioned previously, it's odd that there is literally NOTHING on the radar back until you get to West Texas. It's going to be interesting, with such a weak system, how much it blossoms in the overnight hours. If we could just open the gulf.... any chance of this still happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Precip is supposed to arrive here in 12 hours but I see nothing upstream. When is it supposed to materialize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is spot on with my map from earlier...just prettier. And in inches not feet. LOL! Units: How do they work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pretty damn good chance for freezing rain here according to this Maybe it's just my eyes but that looks like an awfully sharp cutoff just south and west of Atlanta. If that map is correct it looks almost all of AL would get left out.Looks like once again Atlanta is going to be right on the edge of a wintry event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lmao glenn does have a few spots with .4 ice. Total change from yesterday. And what is worse they wasted all that money getting the trucks ready for a fizzle. i guess it is much safer to play on the side of caution, however it still a waste of my money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD443 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013VALID 00Z FRI JAN 25 2013 - 00Z MON JAN 28 2013...UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES TO APPALACHIANS/MID-ATL STATES...A PROGRESSIVE SEMI-SPLIT FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGHTHE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI OR FROM THEGREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VLYS TO OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY SAT MORNING.THE DOMINANT NWRLY TRAJECTORY/JET WILL ALLOW TWO ITEMS... KEEP THECOLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGIONWHILE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND NOT ALLOWINGMUCH MOISTURE CONTENT TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE COLD SECTOR. THISSYSTEM THOUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE AVAILABLEMOISTURE FOR HEAVIER AND LOCALIZED FROZEN PRECIP. THE LARGESTCONCERN IS THE MID-LEVEL WARMING OVERRUNNING INTO THE SHALLOWDENSE AIR MASS AND THE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN FROM NRN AR/SRN MOTHIS EVENING TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. THE GUIDANCEIS REALLY PINPOINTING SIGNIFICANT ICING ACCUMULATIONS OVER ERNTN/EXTREME SERN KY AND SWRN NC/EXTREME NRN GA. THIS IS WHEREPOSSIBLE .25 INCH ICING HAS A MDT CHANCE... WHILE LIGHTERICING/SOME SLEET AND SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SPREADING OUTACROSS UPSTATE SC AND MUCH OF NC. MEANWHILE... A STREAK OF LIGHTFLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN MN/NRN WI DOWN TO WV/WRN PAAND INTO THE DELMARVA AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL/LARGESTACCUMULATIONS APPEARS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE 500MB VORT TRACKAND AROUND LAKES SUPERIOR/MI WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE.LIKE THE PREVIOUS QUICK MOVING IMPULSE EXPECT GENERALLY MINIMALSNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS... 2 TO 4 UP AND AROUND THE UPR MSVLY/GREAT LAKES INTO THE ERN OH VLY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH UPTO AN INCH EAST OFF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE MID-ATL STATES. THERECOULD BE SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER SRN/SERN VAAND NRN NC... AS THE TWO STREAMS POSSIBLY BETTER INTERACT/PHASEFOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED UVVS AND DYNAMIC COOLING BEFORE MOVING OFFTHE DELMARVA COAST TMRW EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. HPC GENERALLYFOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR HVY SNOW/ICE PROBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Catawba County Schools-Closing at 10 a.m. Hickory Public Schools-Closing at 11:30 a.m. Newton-Conover Schools-Closing at 11:30 a.m. - There should not be winter weather in the state of North Carolina when you wake up in the morning (6am)...should be well west and developing for those looking at the current radar wondering where it is. In fact, there should be mostly virga at first by (7am and or later) for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Good catch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yes, they still get credit for a real school day. Actually, in N.C., I believe the mandatory school day statute is written such that once the first bell rings, it's an official day. Superintendents HATE having to make up missed days. Buncombe County schools I'm a bus driver and if the buses run it counts as a day. If we get the kids to school and turn around and take them home it counts as a day. I'm thinking like last week they called a 2 hour delay for the next morning, that gives them a couple of extra hours to decide if the winter weather hasn't started yet. If it looks like the precip will start any time they will probably will go ahead and shut the schools while on the delay. I think a 2-hr delay is silly. The advisory starts at 6am and goes until 11pm. Precip should be falling by 8am. And it starts as snow and quickly transitions to freezing rain by 10am. Why do a delay when the forecast only gets progressively worse through the day? Why put anyone at risk? Just close the schools at 5am. It's the safest path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think a 2-hr delay is silly. The advisory starts at 6am and goes until 11pm. Precip should be falling by 8am. And it starts as snow and quickly transitions to freezing rain by 10am. Why do a delay when the forecast only gets progressively worse through the day? Why put anyone at risk? Just close the schools at 5am. It's the safest path. I totally agree with you. It just sounds like GSP isn't putting much emphasis on this for the Buncombe County area but with start time around 7 am I would close the schools and not take a chance with the ice. I just have a gut feeling the roads get worse than are predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 They are doing a damn great job informing us of the uncertainty in the forecast. Asking them to make a 100% confident call is just grandstanding, not science. To be clear, what I said wasn't meant negatively towards the NWS, I don't see that as a bad thing in this circumstance. I agree with you, they have laid out the best/worst case scenarios in detail of this system and I say kudos to them. They sure are doing a hell of a better job than TWC is right now. They're just worried about the best case scenario which is rain, it's downright crazy they aren't even entertaining the possibility of freezing rain/drizzle or sleet at all. The least they could do is outline ice changing to rain or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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