Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 just going by memory and the naked eye...the 18Z GFS looks a tad wetter for central NC...nothing robust but definitely wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't know, James. We're in the time range where I give the NAM some credence. I tend to agree, but I'm trying to temper my own expectations. Wake County NC just announced schools closing 3 hrs early tomorrow. Won't that basically mean they'll be releasing right during the middle of the storm? I don't see how they avoid completely closing tomorrow unless this thing turns into a giant bust, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 just going by memory and the naked eye...the 18Z GFS looks a tad wetter for central NC...nothing robust but definitely wetter. Yeah, it's definitely wetter. Widespread 0.1-0.25" across NC now and the sub-0.1" areas are confined to the northern foothills. I like the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, 18z GFs gets almost all of N.C. over .1 in QPF except a small area in north central part of the state. just going by memory and the naked eye...the 18Z GFS looks a tad wetter for central NC...nothing robust but definitely wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's a simple question: For areas in the immediate lee and sw locations (Upstate SC primarily), where is this magic qpf being pulled from? This is a "disturbance" meandering in from the WNW. I can understand a possible coastal transfer nuisance issue affecting areas from RDU to somewhere closer to CLT. HurricaneTracker did a good job of explaining it. Certainly seems to start looking that way. 18Z NAM came in a good bit wetter over east TN and northern NC, sw VA. While the forcing aloft looks weak, there is some serious warm advection forcing going on with this system. Plus, we have the 09Z SREF members looking wet too. At this point, it seems the GFS might be too dry (perhaps it is underestimating the strength of the WAA). looking at the hi-res NAM radar at the surface there are some heavy bands that move through your area and with that wedge in place it's going to spell bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Won't that basically mean they'll be releasing right during the middle of the storm? I don't see how they avoid completely closing tomorrow unless this thing turns into a giant bust, For the triangle, it seems like the precip won't really get going until after lunchtime. Is that correct? If so, then the 3 hour early release should be safe, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's a simple question: For areas in the immediate lee and sw locations (Upstate SC primarily), where is this magic qpf being pulled from? This is a "disturbance" meandering in from the WNW. I can understand a possible coastal transfer nuisance issue affecting areas from RDU to somewhere closer to CLT. The 500mb wave is way to the NW, but there is decent warm air advection in the low levels leading to the lift and precip...but all in all, it's a weak system. Check out the GSP discussion - they give a good explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Temps are not forecast to be above freezing in CLT or RDU. Temps will be in the high 20's with that wedge in place for the duration of the event.Ok, I guess the NWS is wrong then. They are forecasting 36 for Raleigh. If temps are even close to freezing during the afternoon, I imagine roads would be drivable. Even with a temp of 31 or 32, I think roads would be decent during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For the triangle, it seems like the precip won't really get going until after lunchtime. Is that correct? If so, then the 3 hour early release should be safe, right? Correct. Even western areas like Yadkin County are dismissing at lunch time. This is a afternoon event down east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvgram Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not sure if this belongs in the obs thread, if so, someone will move it. But just went outside and saw what appeared to be re-paving material or something on the street here at Wow & Meow's house. Course we don't get this type of weather down in Houston so I was kinda baffled. Called Meow, it's treating the roads for ice. So evidently here in Mooresville, they think something is going to happen, since they're doing the roads. We're being cautious tomorrow and keeping the kids at home instead of running them in to daycare. Wish everyone had that option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the precip doesn't start till mid afternoon in the Triangle, and temps rise into the upper 30s, when the light precip does finally start to fall, would there be a concern that temps will struggle to get back below freezing, especially if the precip is very light? I've seen that happen before....but this airmass is really dry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HurricaneTracker did a good job of explaining it. looking at the hi-res NAM radar at the surface there are some heavy bands that move through your area and with that wedge in place it's going to spell bad news. So the thought is that a more stout WAA will blow warmer air into and above the cold air - thus creating enough condensation to generate additional qpf? Temps have never been in question - assuming they do not warm to 35 degrees by the onset. QPF has been my focal dilemma with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ok, I guess the NWS is wrong then. They are forecasting 36 for Raleigh. If temps are even close to freezing during the afternoon, I imagine roads would be drivable. Even with a temp of 31 or 32, I think roads would be decent during the afternoon. Temp may get up to 36...though I doubt it will. As soon as the precip comes in temps will crash to the upper 20's to around freezing. Ground temp is cold so if the amount falls the NAM says the roads will be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's called "covering your butt". I don't blame them either. They are doing a damn great job informing us of the uncertainty in the forecast. Asking them to make a 100% confident call is just grandstanding, not science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the precip doesn't start till mid afternoon in the Triangle, and temps rise into the upper 30s, when the light precip does finally start to fall, would there be a concern that temps will struggle to get back below freezing, especially if the precip is very light? I've seen that happen before....but this airmass is really dry though. I think there are a few things. There is a wedge in place and temps will fall to the mid twenties tonight. Clouds will roll in and not allow it to warm up too much and thirdly with such low dew points when moisture starts temps will come crashing down. I will be very surprised if most of NC in that wedge zone makes it above freezing. NAM and GFS have pretty much everyone in NC in the 20's for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How were the temp profiles on the gfs? Snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 500mb wave is way to the NW, but there is decent warm air advection in the low levels leading to the lift and precip...but all in all, it's a weak system. Check out the GSP discussion - they give a good explanation. Thanks grit (and the burgster) - I guess my thoughts all along have been that this is in fact, a weak disturbance with qpf issues SE of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Current obs? 28 degrees. And winds between 10-16mph Gonna be a chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Glenn Burns is on T.V. showing .4" of ice in some portions of N. GA. Bread and Milk alarm. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Removed the WWA for Cherokee County... replaced with this instead: ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AFREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE ELLIJAY TO CUMMING TO GAINESVILLE. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH OF LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO GRIFFIN TO EATONTON TO CRAWFORDVILLE.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...ICE WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE MORNING WARMING TO AROUND 40 BY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN TURNS INTO ALL RAIN.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVELDIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USECAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yes, they still get credit for a real school day. Actually, in N.C., I believe the mandatory school day statute is written such that once the first bell rings, it's an official day. Superintendents HATE having to make up missed days. Buncombe County schools I'm a bus driver and if the buses run it counts as a day. If we get the kids to school and turn around and take them home it counts as a day. I'm thinking like last week they called a 2 hour delay for the next morning, that gives them a couple of extra hours to decide if the winter weather hasn't started yet. If it looks like the precip will start any time they will probably will go ahead and shut the schools while on the delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Glenn Burns is on T.V. showing .4" of ice in some portions of N. GA. Bread and Milk alarm. Book it. Too bad that's not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Too bad that's not here. Interesting enough he showed ZR here through 11PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 In my neck of the woods, there hasn't been a sounding in the last 40 hours that showed snow at any time. I still see "starting as snow" showing up in some forecasts and discussion, but I don't know why. How were the temp profiles on the gfs? Snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Came home to a Winter Storm Warning. I didn't think it was supposed to get too bad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the precip doesn't start till mid afternoon in the Triangle, and temps rise into the upper 30s, when the light precip does finally start to fall, would there be a concern that temps will struggle to get back below freezing, especially if the precip is very light? I've seen that happen before....but this airmass is really dry though. Greensboro area is 30 degrees right now with clear skies...I don't see how they get to upper 30s with heavy cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Interesting enough he showed ZR here through 11PM. I wonder how early ATL metro can expect freezing rain? I think that is the big question here since areas further north will probably start early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks Burger. I feel like that's correct. But I've seen situations where it starts later than expected and the sun is out for a bit and we're at 40 all of a sudden. I feel like we're pretty secure on temps, but I just wanted to throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wonder how early ATL metro can expect freezing rain? I think that is the big question here since areas further north will probably start early. According to the NWS here, roughly 7am or slightly later depending on where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongForWinter Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The thing is, state law says lunch must be served before school is let out. So 3 hours is probably the earliest they can legally let school out. In the school where I teach, the lunch schedule on half days starts at 9:20. We get 'em in the door, feed 'em, and send them out again at 11:30. Half day accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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