WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't shoot me, but the NAM has the vort max farther south coming into Oregon / northern Nevada 18z NAM with energy in northern CA & NV at 42hrs, compared to northern MT at 12z, this should be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The 18z is night and day compared to 12z....has that northern energy more consolidated and has some energy diving into the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looks north to me, that little piece of energy floating around is not the main piece of energy, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, the southern parcel went 'poof' as burger would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 18z NAM with energy in northern CA & NV at 42hrs, compared to northern MT at 12z, this should be an interesting run. Good to hear from you! People saying this winter is as bad as last are crazy, this is the 2nd credible threat within one week for us to follow! The first potent clipper to reach outside the mountains in years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A note about the dry air..... the modeling should account for the dry air with the precip amounts. Now, any model could certainly under-estimate the amount of dry air (and they often do), but the modeling does account for evaporation in the QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't know it seems to me that that piece of energy out west is going to be a player on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, the southern parcel went 'poof' as burger would say I still see it... IDK if we're talking about the same thing here. We're probably going to get a phase, not sure where this things gonna end up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A note about the dry air..... the modeling should account for the dry air with the precip amounts. Now, any model could certainly under-estimate the amount of dry air (and they often do), but the modeling does account for evaporation in the QPF amounts. Awesome thanks Matt! That solves that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 @69 colder and further south of the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 RAH afternoon thoughts: ...POTENTIAL WINTERY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL ENSUE ONTHURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THEMID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG ~1040MBOVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTICAND CAROLINAS. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUTOF THE 30S ON THURSDAY WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPHPROVIDING AN ADDED NIP TO THE AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABRUPTLYAFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE ARCTICHIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SUB-FREEZING LOWS WELL INTO THE LOWERTO MID 20S.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS SECONDARY LOWDEVELOPS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO DIGGINGPACIFIC NW ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US...LEADING TO AN EXPANDINGSHIELD OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIE ON THESOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND COLD FRONTOVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ISTHEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTICREGION...CONSOLIDATING/MERGING ALONG THE WAY BEFORE A CENTRALIZEDLOW EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.THE SUBFREEZING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONTAPPROACH FAVORS NARROW CORRIDORS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATIONACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH WARMADVECTION PROCESSES(SHOWERY LIKE) DRIVING THE PRECIP WITH DYNAMICFORCING/LIFT WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO LAST WEEKS STORM SYSTEM.BUT THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A MODEL TREND TO MUCH COLDER THERMALPROFILES(ESPECIALLY IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES)ACROSS THE ENTIRECWA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS PRECIP MOVESIN...LOCKING IN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAVOREDPIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AND POSSIBLY TO EVEN NEAR FREEZING AS FAREAST AS THE SANDHILLS/I95 CORRIDOR. WHILE TIMING/AMOUNTS ARE STILLSOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD....THE ANOMALOUSANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE INTRODUCTIONOF BOTH FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZENPRECIP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT(HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION...TRENDING TO A VERY COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST(ALTHOUGH IT COULDBE A MIX AT THE ONSET). SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL POTENTIALLYLIE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAINMIX (DUE TO LIMITED SATURATION ALOFT)EVERYONE IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND POTENTIALWATCHES AND WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW IN THENEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This run is a good bit colder but also a lot less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 @69 colder and further south of the 12z NAM. Just a few minor continuity issues this run & the previous iteration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM was not good, did not dig the northern energy at all, rotted away over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Man, the lack of a better PAC ridge is greatly minimizing the chances for many on this run of the NAM it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think a QPF bust would be about the worst thing that could happen at this point. We would see many headed to the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's the 18Z NAM...I wouldn't be worried Remember how well (ahem) it did with the last event? NAM was not good, did not dig the northern energy at all, rotted away over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, if we are looking at trends, minimizing the total qpf is definitely happening. Perhaps when the energy is better sampled we will see a leveling off of that and even a slight bump back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's the 18Z NAM...I wouldn't be worried Remember how well (ahem) it did with the last event? Agreed, at this range it's not good...but that was a terrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's been obvious since Monday that qpf, not temps would be the main issue in determining whether or not we (northern NC triad) will be getting the winter weathr goods. Not alot wiggle room when your trying to net .25-.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not worried right now. It's the NAM and plenty of time for the qpf to come back the other way. Of course, it would be our luck that qpf would be the problem now that we have the coldest weather of the winter. We have had plenty when it was too warm for anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm going to pretend I didn't see that run of the NAM. Barf..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the Euro had held with 00z qpf, I wouldn't be to worried! But being it cut mine nearly in half, then this awful run of the NAM that is cause for concern.. IMO But it's still early so we'll just wait and see if the GFS can rachet up the qpf a little at 18z??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm going to pretend I didn't see that run of the NAM. Barf..... In the mean time hug the nogaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We need just enough gulf tap to help juice up the column here in NW SC and NE Ga then another .25" to fall as snow and I will be satisfied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A note about the dry air..... the modeling should account for the dry air with the precip amounts. Now, any model could certainly under-estimate the amount of dry air (and they often do), but the modeling does account for evaporation in the QPF amounts. This is what I've been told. The thing the models don't do a good job of though is temperatures dropping at the surface due to evaparotional cooling. The 18z nam for example has some light precip with temps essentially staying the same....which is virtually impossible with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s in north ga and dewpoints in the teens with a deep and cold boundary layer. Even light precip would cause temps to drop easily with that. Now IF it was a very shallow cold layer...say only up to 975mb and strong waa aloft, you can have temps in the low 30s/dewpoints in the teens when the precip starts but due to the shallow nature of the cold air it mixes out and temps won't drop. Been burnt on that before. Essentially what I'm saying is you have to have a certain depth to along with the cold air at the surface from my experience. Not worried right now. It's the NAM and plenty of time for the qpf to come back the other way. Worrying about what the 18z nam is showing is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 In the mean time hug the nogaps! So it's NOGAPS, UKIE, and GGEM against EURO and GFS. This is shaping up like Alabama versus Notre Dame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Afternoon discussion out of GSP: THERE ISSOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE ADVANCING LOW WILL BE ABLE TO BUDGEHIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...WHICH COULD KEEP US UNDER AWEDGE OF COLD AIR. GFS AND NAM SEEM TO THINK THE CAD WILL ERODEDURING THE DAY FRI. HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH HIGH TEMPS THATREFLECT THAT. PRECIP TYPE DOES BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OVER MAINLY NCGIVEN SUBFREEZING TEMPS THERE FRI MORNING. IF THE WARM AIR IS ABLETO PUSH NORTH MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. THE AREAS THAT DO SEEFROZEN PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH THEMOISTURE BEING CONCENTRATED NEAR THE GROUND...SIMILAR TO THE THUEVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So it's NOGAPS, UKIE, and GGEM against EURO and GFS. This is shaping up like Alabama versus Notre Dame. I didn't think the Euro was that bad, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hmm, seems like RAH is jumping the gun a little, going with Snow Likely on Friday and Friday night for the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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