NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Short range latest output; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Short range latest output; I really have a feeling CLT is going to have more than liquid than most around here with this event...the models keep saying that this area is prime time. Not liking these trends to be honest. Ice I would rather not have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hi-Res NAM puts RDU around .40 and south CLT around .25 we'll have to see if the short range models start upping QPF...if so this could be trouble. Certainly seems to start looking that way. 18Z NAM came in a good bit wetter over east TN and northern NC, sw VA. While the forcing aloft looks weak, there is some serious warm advection forcing going on with this system. Plus, we have the 09Z SREF members looking wet too. At this point, it seems the GFS might be too dry (perhaps it is underestimating the strength of the WAA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvis Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I really have a feeling CLT is going to have more than liquid than most around here with this event...the models keep saying that this area is prime time. Not liking these trends to be honest. Ice I would rather not have. Are you saying Charlotte is going to have primarily Freezing Rain.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 > Matthew east on twitter. Rah will issue waa for Raleigh area. > even before RAH lays out the WAA. > Gsp discussion is out. Waa for most of the area. Do y'all really mean WWA (Winter Weather Advisory), or am I seriously confused? You know we're in trouble when WFOs start to issue out warm air advection! On a side note, it was nice to see the 18z NAM bump QPF amounts back up a bit. It's probably just getting my hopes up, but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Are you saying Charlotte is going to have primarily Freezing Rain.? Looks that way. Classic ZR sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Are you saying Charlotte is going to have primarily Freezing Rain.? Yes it would probably start as sleet then transition over to ZR...when and how much falls is anyone's guess at this point but I certainly do not like this trend in the short range for us as ice only spells trouble and given the time of day it is not going to bode well. I know if it looks bad I'll be leaving work early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Got to love the high-res models right now. Hope they're right... Anyways, RAH just issued their WWA! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING... .A FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO THE PRODUCTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083-084-251030- /O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.130125T1700Z-130126T0500Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO... ROCKINGHAM 305 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A LITTLE SLEET. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... A HALF TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OCCURRING FROM THE TRIAD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. * SLEET ACCUMULATION...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCRUAL WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. EXPOSED OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS FENCES...POWER-LINES... AND TREE LIMBS WILL GAIN A THIN COAT OF ICE. THIS ICE ACCRETION MAY CAUSE WEAKENED OR DISEASED TREE LIMBS TO BREAK OFF. SIDEWALKS AND STEPS LEADING TO BUILDINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...WHAT ACCUMULATES ON THE ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ WSS/CBL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For those interested, here is the latest forecast sounding for downtown AVL for 1pm tomorrow: all freezing rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The NGM was good because we knew where it would fail...ETA was all over the place and extremely biased on QPF (Wet-A) so it was not altogether popular at first. Today's NAM is way better than those day but it will never get precise enough to satisfy the current generation. This is a non sequitur but I can remember how excited I was when the NGM showed that 8 in the snowfall field before 2/26/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't know if it was already posted... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 341 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY... .A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE SMOKIES...LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING. GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>007-010-012-250445- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0005.130125T1100Z-130126T0400Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-LAURENS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...GREENVILLE... SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...LAURENS 341 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT ALSO MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET AT TIMES EARLY. * TIMING...STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE EARLY...ALONG WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...ICE AND SLEET MAY CAUSE ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLIPPERY...MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...RISING TO THE MIDDLE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ ARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 WWA issued for Wilkes. Off topic sort of...I heard someone walking in the woods. Upon my approach, I realized it was a HUGE crowd of birds... I do NOT see a snow shadow here coming...birds are better than models for imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On a side note, it was nice to see the 18z NAM bump QPF amounts back up a bit. It's probably just getting my hopes up, but whatever. I don't know, James. We're in the time range where I give the NAM some credence. If the 850s are to be believed, a statewide ice storm may be coming into the picture. Pretty exciting, in a gruesome sort of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakegrrl Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The schools here in the Triad (and other similar) areas have a tough decision for tomorrow. They could probably squeeze in a half-day, and maybe get by with a 2-hour early release, but it would be cutting it very close. Many schools have gone to using a system with one set of buses to service the 3 schools in a district and using staggered start times. If the precip is even an hour or 2 earlier than forecast they may literally not be able to get the kids home. I know they hate to cancel school in situations like this (no guarantee of substantial winter weather) because the parents will be irate if it doesn't snow/ice. However, given what Raleigh had happen several years ago I'm not sure they can afford to take any chances. People literally had to leave their cars on the roads and start walking. Wake County NC just announced schools closing 3 hrs early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What kind of fence riding is this? It's called "covering your butt". I don't blame them either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My concern is if schools are letting out early and the precip starts as this happens we could be setting up for disaster, especially if it slightly overperforms. If you are going to let out 3 hours early what is the point? Just close. I guess the purpose is technically they don't use a snow day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yes, they still get credit for a real school day. Actually, in N.C., I believe the mandatory school day statute is written such that once the first bell rings, it's an official day. Superintendents HATE having to make up missed days. My concern is if schools are letting out early and the precip starts as this happens we could be setting up for disaster, especially if it slightly overperforms. If you are going to let out 3 hours early what is the point? Just close. I guess the purpose is technically they don't use a snow day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's called "covering your butt". I don't blame them either. Hard to see the roads though in the metro ever icing over, I see highs were in the 50s the last few days, even with a 3-4 hour period below freezing at night thats not likely enough to get FRZ RAIN to ice them over, snow yes, it takes a remarkably cold pavement surface for freezing rain to ice them over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Certainly seems to start looking that way. 18Z NAM came in a good bit wetter over east TN and northern NC, sw VA. While the forcing aloft looks weak, there is some serious warm advection forcing going on with this system. Plus, we have the 09Z SREF members looking wet too. At this point, it seems the GFS might be too dry (perhaps it is underestimating the strength of the WAA). I'll be very interested to see how the HRR looks...of course this could just simply be a burp but it would not surprise me if it gets wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My concern is if schools are letting out early and the precip starts as this happens we could be setting up for disaster, especially if it slightly overperforms. If you are going to let out 3 hours early what is the point? Just close. I guess the purpose is technically they don't use a snow day? The thing is, state law says lunch must be served before school is let out. So 3 hours is probably the earliest they can legally let school out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Boy, 18z RGEM was a good bit wetter over Tenn. at 24 hours compared to 36 hours on the 6z run -- most of the state is covered in 10+mm on the 18z run, vs. just a couple pockets on 6z. Really doesn't translate into N.C. much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The thing is, state law says lunch must be served before school is let out. So 3 hours is probably the earliest they can legally let school out. Nope! Check out my post in the banter thread. Closing at 10 AM with lunch before! Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hard to see the roads though in the metro ever icing over, I see highs were in the 50s the last few days, even with a 3-4 hour period below freezing at night thats not likely enough to get FRZ RAIN to ice them over, snow yes, it takes a remarkably cold pavement surface for freezing rain to ice them over. I agree in general. But would point out a case where only sprinkles or drizzle were expected, temps were above freezing. But the drizzle came for an hour and it wet-bulbed and became black ice with many accidents, even though the amount QPF was barely enough to dampen the ground. It was bad only in parts of a few NW GA counties but for those affected during the PM drive it was "an unpredicted major ice storm". Most of the state just had regular drizzle or was dry! I recall it being "mild" during the day but dont remember the specifics or days before. Problem is, who or what has the skill to see such a minor difference between perfect timing and dodging a bullet/false alarm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My concern is if schools are letting out early and the precip starts as this happens we could be setting up for disaster, especially if it slightly overperforms. If you are going to let out 3 hours early what is the point? Just close. I guess the purpose is technically they don't use a snow day? I don't see how roads would be that bad in the afternoon with temps forecast to be above freezing in both Charlotte and Raleigh. Tomorrow night may be a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't see how roads would be that bad in the afternoon with temps forecast to be above freezing in both Charlotte and Raleigh. Tomorrow night may be a different story though. I'm guessing those highs will be before the precip starts. DPs are so low in the region I would imagine the precip will send 2m temps crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't see how roads would be that bad in the afternoon with temps forecast to be above freezing in both Charlotte and Raleigh. Tomorrow night may be a different story though. Temperatures are not forecast to rise above freezing in Charlotte or Raleigh. In fact, it's highly unlikely and temperatures will probably be in the mid to upper 20s in both locations during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't see how roads would be that bad in the afternoon with temps forecast to be above freezing in both Charlotte and Raleigh. Tomorrow night may be a different story though. Temps are not forecast to be above freezing in CLT or RDU. Temps will be in the high 20's with that wedge in place for the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't see how roads would be that bad in the afternoon with temps forecast to be above freezing in both Charlotte and Raleigh. Tomorrow night may be a different story though. Wait, NWS says Charlotte's high is 33 F. And that might be generous depending on how strong the CAD is. So, I don't think you count on roads definitely melting tomorrow. NWS has Raleigh at 35 F. That could bust too high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's a simple question: For areas in the immediate lee and sw locations (Upstate SC primarily), where is this magic qpf being pulled from? This is a "disturbance" meandering in from the WNW. I can understand a possible coastal transfer nuisance issue affecting areas from RDU to somewhere closer to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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