MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro was much like the GFS...dry for NC. What about QPF over NGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well, it seems that KCAE is wanting to follow their "local tools" and the SREF for this area. Still at a 40% chance of less than a .10th of freezing rain Friday night. I'm honestly not on board. The GEFS barely has any member showing anything wintry at all. The 4KM NAM barely has any moisture, and what passes through looks to be rain except counties toward the border of NC/SC. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 115 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOW- LEVEL WEDGE FLOW POSSIBLY IN PLACE. ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE ONSET OF THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE PRECIP WILL BE LACKING. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS FOR POPS...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 15Z AT THIS TIME...THEN ONCE THE POPS INCREASE AFTER 15Z...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THE ONLY REGION STILL BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES IS THE CATAWBA AND PEE DEE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON THIS...THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS MAY HAVE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP AT THE ONSET...THEN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEEING A LONGER PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN SO...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thank you. I figured as much. It will be interesting to see if RAH goes with any advisories or not. My guess is they will despite it being a minimal event for any glaze that may cause slick spots on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm wondering what decisions (if any) Wake County will be make regarding school openings tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm wondering what decisions (if any) Wake County will be make regarding school openings tomorrow. I have a feeling they will either close or release very early as to avoid any chance of a 2005 repeat, or simply because of the possibility of any glaze. Closings and delays will fly once the advisories come out late this afternoon as the 5pm newscasts gear up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thinking about the same for CLT metro area. Borderline to say the least, but ANY ice is trouble, trust me, I am with local Fire and Rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RAH is in quite the predicament with respects to advisories, it seems. I could see it going either way but my guess is they err on the side of caution and issue a WWA for at least parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thinking about the same for CLT metro area. Borderline to say the least, but ANY ice is trouble, trust me, I am with local Fire and Rescue. In the back of my mind I think this is one of those chances that we max out in the area compared to most....the question will be is it ZR or is it sleet? Big diff. there and I would prefer sleet as I'm sure you would too. Our luck we will max on the moisture and it be all ZR. Can't buy the max when it comes to snow the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 A few words of wsidom from RAH for folks on the southern side of things.... like arwx, wherever you are: "IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO / SOUTH OF 1-64 SHOULD BEGIN WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE SNOW/SLEET (PREDOMINATE P-TYPES). SURFACE WET BULBS HERE ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 32... PLACING THIS REGION IN LIKELY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LAURINBURG TO FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO... A COLD LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED WITH WET BULBS 33-34 OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING... THIS COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE A LOW PRECIPITATION... YET RATHER HIGH IMPACT EVENT. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DAMPEN THE WAVE AND LESSEN THE QPF WITH TIME... WHICH MAKES THIS ONLY A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR AMOUNTS. P-TYPE AND COLD AIR ARE HIGH CONFIDENCE... QPF IS LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is DT's second First Call Map. Bring on the ice, according to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 OOOpsy, sorry..I always assume Atlanta is bigger than it is.LOL Still applies to me as I live just across the line in Forsyth Co. and I'm guessing the kids will be sleeping in tomorrow. From this page you can get to every AFD in the SE http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php Replace the "ffc" in the link with your forecast office or just go to the page and they will all be on the right hand side. HWO's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thank you. I figured as much. It will be interesting to see if RAH goes with any advisories or not. My guess is they will despite it being a minimal event for any glaze that may cause slick spots on the roads. Yes, they are going to issue Winter Weather Advisories with their afternoon forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is DT's second First Call Map. Bring on the ice, according to him. I assume his green area is just a typical DT typo -- that it should say "some sleet then rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bone dry? Dewpoint is tanking this afternoon in Midtown Charlotte: 14:07 43.9 °F 38.9 °F 12.8°F 30.39in NE 9.0mph 13.0mph 28% 0.00in / 0.00in total 619 watts/m^2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is DT's second First Call Map. Bring on the ice, according to him. lol on his "first" map I was in 2-4" of snow. Is he the new Baghdad Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is DT's second First Call Map. Bring on the ice, according to him. If he cared about his credibility back here in TN (which I am sure he doesn't) he'd take the 2-4 and 3-5 out. I'll eat my car (and invite everyone in the southeast forum to watch) if ktri gets 3-5 and ktys gets 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If he cared about his credibility back here in TN (which I am sure he doesn't) he'd take the 2-4 and 3-5 out. I'll eat my car (and invite everyone in the southeast forum to watch) if ktri gets 3-5 and ktys gets 2-4. I agree, tnweathernut. Wish it were so, but appears to be ice for most of us in East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If he cared about his credibility back here in TN (which I am sure he doesn't) he'd take the 2-4 and 3-5 out. I'll eat my car (and invite everyone in the southeast forum to watch) if ktri gets 3-5 and ktys gets 2-4. I'm pretty sure he's basing his forecast from here: The #s line up well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAFLOAT_12z/etaloop.html I'm not saying he's right/wrong, just pointing out some model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Matthew east on twitter. Rah will issue waa for Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm pretty sure he's basing his forecast from here: The #s line up well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAFLOAT_12z/etaloop.html I'm not saying he's right/wrong, just pointing out some model output. Thanks for the response, it's much appreciated You are probably right about what he's using as the basis for his forecast, but the text data has been showing warming in multiple layers and a general drying out of qpf (not to mention my experience with these types of events here in ne TN tells me that the warming is often underestimated and the warm nose is even more pronounced than forecast. I'd be beyond shocked to see ktys with more than a dusting or 1/2 inch, followed by some freezing rain. Same for ktri, even though that might be a closer call for a little more snow than Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12Z GFS ZR amounts lower than prior runs: KATL: trace at most; Marietta: .03"; Athens :.03"; Gainsevile 0.14" This may be small, but it would be enough to cause some very slippery spots, especially on bridges/overpasses. Sometimes a light glaze is the most treacherous. My forecast is unchanged for ATL-AHN corridor: .01-.10" of ZR leaning to low side and heaviest on north side. This glaze would be the first in a good while. Be careful on the roads. All of this is assuming that the GFS cold bias isn't playing tricks. If it is and if everyone is, as a result, several degrees warmer than forecasted, there could easily be virtually no ZR. **Edit: GFS per MeteoStar is running about 7 degrees colder than reality right now at ATL and Athens! Makes me wonder about tomorrow although fresh cold and CAD would seemingly get rid of a lot this short term cold bias. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I have a feeling they will either close or release very early as to avoid any chance of a 2005 repeat, or simply because of the possibility of any glaze. Closings and delays will fly once the advisories come out late this afternoon as the 5pm newscasts gear up. Chatham County (NC) Schools have already announced a early dismissal for tomorrow, even before RAH lays out the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 18z NAM rolling...NAM still insists on best QPF in northern TN near KY line. IF the NAM is right FFC will bust big time again with their WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Gsp discussion is out. Waa for most of the area. Can't post from phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GSP's afternoon: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AN INTERESTING EVENT SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY. WE WILL START THE EVENTWITH PLENTY OF DRY...COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS STRONGRIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.TEMPERATURES SHOULD START THE DAY TOMORROW BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THEENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOWFREEZING. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE NO UPPER SUPPORT AND IT WILLQUICKLY MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAMMAINTAINS A WEAK AXIS OF SFC RIDGING OVER THE NRN UPSTATE AND SRN NCPIEDMONT AS PCPN BEGINS...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...EVENTHE NAM HAS SW FLOW IN THE BNDRY LAYER. THE HEAVIEST QPF WITH THEEVENT SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS AS WELLAS EXTREME NE GA. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE THAT FORCES PCPN ISCHANNELED AND WE DON/T HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER SYNOPTICSCALE SUPPORT. WHAT WE DO HAVE IS SCREAMING WARM ADVECTION ATOP THEWEAKENING LLVL RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE MTNS. THE GFS QPF FOR THEEVENT IS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE NAM. FOR EXAMPLE...THE NAM HAS 0.4 TO0.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PCPN OVER THE NRN MTNS WHILE THE GFS HAS LESSTHAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF ANDNCEP. THIS RESULTS IN QPF THAT WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER STORM ONLYACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE GA. AND THAT/S PROBABLYHIGH. I CERTAINLY HAVE QPF THAT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THENEIGHBORS.PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SLEET AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTNSLATE TONIGHT AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD. PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THEUPSTATE BY LATE MORNING AND TOWARD LUNCH TIME OVER THE I-77 URBANCORRIDOR. THERE IS A STRONG WARM NOSE WITH THIS EVENT...AND SOME OFTHE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL BE FORCED BY THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION.THEREFORE...A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THEUPSTATE...SRN NC PIEDMONT AND A GOOD BIT OF NE GA. THE WARM NOSE ISMORE MUTED ACROSS THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND CONSIDERABLYMORE SLEET AND SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. OVER THESOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WETBULBS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLYAFTN AS THESE AREAS HAVE NO MECHANISM TO LOCK IN COLD AIR WITHSOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS...EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL HAVE SOME OF THEHEAVIEST QPF...MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PCPN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OVERGRAHAM...SWAIN AND NORTHERN MACON COUNTY. THIS SHOULD HOLD MOST OFTHESE COUNTIES BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZINGRAIN. THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AT OR ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FEETWILL SEE MORE SNOW AND SLEET. IN FACT THESE LOCATIONS MAY HITWARNING CRITERIA...BUT WE DO NOT ISSUE WARNINGS FOR THE RIDGE TOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice max showing in northern TN. With all the technology and complex mathmatical formulas in place it makes you wonder how models can be so different with showing a qpf max from a day away? One model shows it in northern AL/GA, the other modeling in northern TN. Impressively frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chatham County (NC) Schools have already announced a early dismissal for tomorrow, even before RAH lays out the WAA.It's a real problem especially for the larger systems. IN Guilford for instance it takes several hours from the time the decision is made to close early until the last student is home. Many of the buses make three different runs at three different schools. Freezing rain can make roads impassable in minutes so deciding on the side of caution is probably the best thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1147 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013 NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ005>009-013-014-251700- CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- UNION SC-CHESTER- 1147 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ACCUMULATION OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL. THIS EVENT COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS TO STAY UPDATED ON THE EVENT AS IT DRAWS NEAR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Good moisture axis on the 18z NAM at 27hrs whole state of TN pretty much with .50 QPF and a large area of .25 covering KY, VA and NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 18z NAM gives RDU .25 looks like mainly sleet and ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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