HurricaneTracker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS continues the idea of OK QPF across southern TN and far north AL/GA while going poof in the carolinas. The 12z NAM is north of most other guidance as far as location of highest QPF. At this point think the NAM does not have a good handle on this and prefer the GFS or canadian. 12z GFS So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I have a feeling that tomorrow morning's commute will not be fun. We should warm above freezing pretty quickly by mid day, but it really won't take more than a few hundredths of an inch of ZR to cause bridge problems. If only it was just the bridges...So many people here turn crazy when frozen precip falls...I will probably be telecommuting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? Energy transfer to the coast and subsiding air coming off the Apps seems most plausable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? I'm not completely sure, but it would seem to have a direct relationship between this systems track and the lack of a low or southwest incoming moisture in it's company. Growing up, I just coined the phrase "High Elevation Sponging" where the qpf seems to be absorbed as it traverses the southern vertebra of the Apps spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? Wouldn't that be the energy transfer of low pressure to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? My guess is the models are seeing the very dry air and eating up the QPF? GFS really goes crazy with the disappearing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 major virga storm at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I always assumed it was simply orographic lift that squeezes all the moisture out of the storm. That's why everything coming from the west/northwest over the mountains dries out and the piedmont gets nada. I've expected nothing less from this days ago. My only hope was this low would really dig and tap a bit of gulf moisture that would make it come from the south west under the mountains. It hasn't done that thus the POOF for the piedmont on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So I haven't quite yet discovered why the precip goes "poof" in the Carolina's. Any meteorological musings? I personally don't like the flow out of the WNW which can supress QPF the further east and south the system moves. Not real sure why the GFS poof but it does look a tad weaker with the 500mb vorticies and since this already a weak system and amount of extra weakness could make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The "sponging" in the Carolinas likely due to a loss of just about everything needed to produce decent precip. a bit of downslope, what precipitation there is having to saturate what promises to be a very dry lower level column, transference of energy to the coast, possibly the absolute worse trajectory for energy traversing along a backdoor arctic boundary which never really finds a good "tap" or moisture source. Everything about everything is just plain wrong for a higher impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolina2Texas Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, this isn't going to be a major winter event by any means but an event nonetheless. I've seen clippers under (most often) and over perform. Ratios will only matter where it stays snow and this looks to be confined to the northern half of NC. On a side note, the cold air is really working into the region on very brisk winds. Temps have been steadily dropping from the mid 30s to the lower 30s. Too bad we don't have the moisture we had with the last storms ^^^ This, the two rarely team up and play ball like they should, and even when they do it's the event you don't see coming. That said we are kinda overdue for some action but this may not be the one. I'm looking forward to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wow major temp bust here, forecasted high was around 40 but we are up to 46 already! Same here at CAE, Forecast high of 51, currently sitting at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Same here at CAE, Forecast high of 51, currently sitting at 57. I'm not sure if the wedge will make it to CAE or not, but it has here in the Triad with temps now below freezing after climbing to the mid 30s first thing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I always assumed it was simply orographic lift that squeezes all the moisture out of the storm. That's why everything coming from the west/northwest over the mountains dries out and the piedmont gets nada. I've expected nothing less from this days ago. My only hope was this low would really dig and tap a bit of gulf moisture that would make it come from the south west under the mountains. It hasn't done that thus the POOF for the piedmont on the models. Usually that's the only way a disturbance zipping in from the WNW would produce any appreciable qpf here. I think we both knew - probably because of experience more than any guidance - how this would pan. The "sponging" in the Carolinas likely due to a loss of just about everything needed to produce decent precip. a bit of downslope, what precipitation there is having to saturate what promises to be a very dry lower level column, transference of energy to the coast, possibly the absolute worse trajectory for energy traversing along a backdoor arctic boundary which never really finds a good "tap" or moisture source. Everything about everything is just plain wrong for a higher impact event. Great way of explaining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Temp has held steady here since abt 9:30 a.m., right at 42 degrees. But the RH has crashed about 40 points. Cold, dry wind pushing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here is the color version of the 12z Canadian RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Jason... timing is my main concern here. The amounts are not huge but it doesn't take much to screw things up as long as we can get some before we go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here is the color version of the 12z Canadian RGEM... We'll see if the Canadian can score the upset with how much falls. It does have the SREF on it's side as well. If the RGEM is correct then it's going to be a long Friday night for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Jason... timing is my main concern here. The amounts are not huge but it doesn't take much to screw things up as long as we can get some before we go above freezing. Agreed. Especially for your area and the ATL area. It's seems like the consensus is to keep the early precip way north and in YBY well after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 UK is a shadow of its mid-week QPF self. Now barely gets anyone over .2. And the streak rolls on .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will dub this one the failboat storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We'll see if the Canadian can score the upset with how much falls. It does have the SREF on it's side as well. If the RGEM is correct then it's going to be a long Friday night for many.hope its wrong thats too much freezing rain for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 UK is a shadow of its mid-week QPF self. Now barely gets anyone over .2. And the streak rolls on .... Yep...goes poof in the carolinas like the GFS. Southern TN to far SW NC and far north AL and GA are looking like the best QPF and thus highest impact locations. 12z UKIE images below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I know the QPF continues to shrink like a frightened turtle, but GSP updated for my area continue to paint the top end of .2" of ice. Now, I assume .2" would not fall but if .2" did it would get messy given the surface temps. UK is a shadow of its mid-week QPF self. Now barely gets anyone over .2. And the streak rolls on .... Would give anything to have todays 850 temp last week !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Matters little in the scheme of things but BP just tweeted to me: He's going with Ensemble mean of .22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Matters little in the scheme of things but BP just tweeted to me: He's going with Ensemble mean of .22" Ensemble mean of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It was his tweet...I assume a blend of the ensembles but can't speak for him. Ensemble mean of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm so surprised the NAM trended to the drier models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well, Washington DC reported .4 inches of snow from .03 inches of liquid. Lots of posters in the MA thread are reporting totals over an inch. The clipper seemed to over-perform due to high ratios rather than more qpf. Tomorrow will be interesting at least. Might be a virga storm or an inch of snow. My prediction is a half inch of dry snow tomorrow followed by some frizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yep...goes poof in the carolinas like the GFS. Southern TN to far SW NC and far north AL and GA are looking like the best QPF and thus highest impact locations. 12z UKIE images below P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif I could take the 36 and 42 hour map. That would put us back in the evening and well below freezing... all is not lost quite yet. I do think that due to the minor nature of the QPF, some people will be surprised one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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