Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Brick Tamland 8:35am... "Because when it comes to the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen. The last event only gave me between 1.5 and 2 inches of snow and had really no impact on the roads. And it was advertised as bringing a little more snow. So, no reason not to think this could bring a little more precip than advertised. Plus, even if it only does as much as the last event, it will have colder temps and probably ice on top of it. Even one inch of snow with ice on top will be a bigger impact this time around here than the last snow." Then dont follow the model analysis going on here and really the only thing that should be coming across the feed. Burger asked why, not how you feel. Give some analytical insight, not a gut feeling with a weak and as Mr. Bob said, unrelated event. Im happy to say i have found the block button for your post. Smooth sailing for me in 2013. Sorry for the rant yall. The models show the potential. That's the fun part. But it is so hard to know what will actually happen when it comes to wintry weather around here. Central NC is notorious for being the hardest place in the country for forecasting winter weather. That's why a lot of times we get more or less than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 When I read the RAH was calling for a low-high event, I couldn't help wondering how much their thoughts were shaded by that 2005 event. The timing is similar as well.It was an unholy zoo across the Triangle that evening. And for arwx, wherever you are: Here's the NAM sounding for Faynam when it appears the bulk of precip is falling (such as it is). The GFS is similar in that both look like freezing light rain for about a 6-hour window beginning sometime Fri. afternoon. Only on certain roads in Raleigh. I was able to get around fine from Mebane to Durham then to Chapel hill that evening. The roads were dry with blowing snow and only slick spots were at traffic lights but those were sanded/salted. The problem was everyone was released as soon as it started snowing then all got stuck in bumper to bumper traffic which froze the powder-type snow to the roadways from the car's heat. Then all the fools got stranded on I-40 leaving raliegh in an ice slick. The other direction into raleigh was clear and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Central NC is notorious for being the hardest place in the country for forecasting winter weather. Really? There are statistics for this Brick? I say we're the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The IQ level of this discussion thread has definitely de-evolved into dumbass banter mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The models show the potential. That's the fun part. But it is so hard to know what will actually happen when it comes to wintry weather around here. Central NC is notorious for being the hardest place in the country for forecasting winter weather. That's why a lot of times we get more or less than forecasted. LOL what? This is absurd, the west coast is much harder. This is just your thoughts, please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z NAM moves upper features north but precip at 33 actually fills in better to the south -- .1+ down into northern S.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Overall, though, even lighter on QPF than the 6z run -- it's just that the southern extent of .1+ was extended a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Definitely no denying the drier trends as we close in. This is quickly approaching virga storm status. By the time tomorrow morning rolls around, we'll probably see .05 max amounts across the area. There's just nothing to really provide much lift at all. So disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Still looks like a 1 maybe 2" snow for most in the Triad and Triangle. It's going to be rather cold, so ratios will be higher. Since the ground and roads will be cold, whatever falls will not really melt. As long as it stays snow, the roads should be ok with the powdery nature but add in a little sleet and things can get dicey quick. I haven't looked at the profiles yet to determine where snow/sleet may fall, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My updated call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Excellent map -- you had the most conservative map I saw last week and it paid off -- I think you are using the same wise approach this time. Well done. My updated call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Excellent map -- you had the most conservative map I saw last week and it paid off -- I think you are using the same wise approach this time. Well done. This thing never impressed me from the start. I appreciate it. I am almost wondering if this could even bust lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nice map man, looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 My updated call: I agree. It seems well-reasoned. My least favorite part, though very well-reasoned, is the caveat for the foothills. I think you did good to mention that in the notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You win some, you lose some in ne tn. My concern yesterday was seeing the precip field lifting north. It finally went where I thought it would, making it a se KY and sw VA storm (for the most part). With that said, it won't take much precip to cause problems for traffic and school systems. Good luck all.....especially you east if the apps guys that got shafted last time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Definitely no denying the drier trends as we close in. This is quickly approaching virga storm status. By the time tomorrow morning rolls around, we'll probably see .05 max amounts across the area. There's just nothing to really provide much lift at all. So disappointing. I've heard up to 20:1 ratios in areas with snow, so I wouldn't give up just yet. Plus we have a ton of model runs to go, GFS is still far from NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I have a feeling that tomorrow morning's commute will not be fun. We should warm above freezing pretty quickly by mid day, but it really won't take more than a few hundredths of an inch of ZR to cause bridge problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This thing never impressed me from the start. I appreciate it. I am almost wondering if this could even bust lol. I think your right about maybe this being even dryer than what you show, but we've also seen these system over-perform in the past. Not saying we'll get a lot of QPF, but even just .1 as snow could provide 1-2 inches (20:1 ratio). Not trying to wishcast this system just thinking we'll need to review radars to really get a handel on how this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think your right about maybe this being even dryer than what you show, but we've also seen these system over-perform in the past. Not saying we'll get a lot of QPF, but even just .1 as snow could provide 1-2 inches (20:1 ratio). Not trying to wishcast this system just thinking we'll need to review radars to really get a handel on how this materializes. Some of the hi-res models seem to indicate some banding which could result in some isolated heavier amounts, as well. This could result is some big winners and losers. We'll see, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looking at the NAM the last few runs this may be one of those situations where CLT maxes out on QPF compared to the surrounding areas...that being said I'm just not really feeling this one, I hate ZR and IP is just ok...could still seeing this causing some problems around here but this whole week watching it has just been "meh". Hi Res NAM puts around .25 for most of NC which would probably mainly fall as sleet. I'm just hoping we don't get sleet with .10 or so of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 1300 line keeps dropping further south. Was at the TN/KY border 4 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z RGEM paints a large tongue of around .15 - .20" QPF through much of TN and NC and far north AL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm a bit skeptical of 20:1 ratios with this storm. If it was a typical clipper with lift and saturation all the way up through the dendritic growth zone and there was no warm nose, then yeah, I'd be more excited about ratios that high, maybe. But none of the guidance shows that for most of us, unless I'm missing it. We could still get an overperformance qpf-wise and any precip-banding would certainly help, but when your best qpf ally, the NAM, is reducing amounts on the way home, that is not a good sign. We could still see a bounce-back, but we're quickly running out of runway with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z RGEM paints a large tongue of around .15 - .20" QPF through much of TN and NC and far north AL and GA. 593_100.gif I guess the rain will come while you still have below freezing temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 No change from me...I already had the very low precip. acknowledgement from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess the rain will come while you still have below freezing temps? I think in far N GA the precip will stream in shortly after sun rise. I think temps will be stuck in the upper 20's most of the day up here which should create a nice glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, this isn't going to be a major winter event by any means but an event nonetheless. I've seen clippers under (most often) and over perform. Ratios will only matter where it stays snow and this looks to be confined to the northern half of NC. On a side note, the cold air is really working into the region on very brisk winds. Temps have been steadily dropping from the mid 30s to the lower 30s. Too bad we don't have the moisture we had with the last storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think in far N GA the precip will stream in shortly after sun rise. I think temps will be stuck in the upper 20's most of the day up here which should create a nice glaze.Per the NWS 0.1 for buford.. I guess the models haven't changed much within the last two run. I thought i would go to bed and awake to something that trended a little better.edit- not sure if they updated or i loaded a old page but NWS saying 0.1-0.2 for the buford area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wow major temp bust here, forecasted high was around 40 but we are up to 46 already! Even though this looks like a pretty minor event for the CLT area I'm sorta looking forward to seeing the trees with a little icy glaze on them, it makes for some nice picture taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS continues the idea of OK QPF across southern TN and far north AL/GA while going poof in the carolinas. The 12z NAM is north of most other guidance as far as location of highest QPF. At this point think the NAM does not have a good handle on this and prefer the GFS or canadian. 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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