Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[Rikiswims115]

one of us has the wrong map. The qpf map I see from the 6Z GFS has most of central NC, including us, in the .01-.10 qpf...with only .10 amounts east toward the coast.

read the bottom. This is the NAM. GFS has been screwing us in central NC for a long time; the NAM hasn't. Then again the NAM has had better outcomes than the most recent one.

As for the anti-Atlanta comment, completely agree with DaculaWeather. Everyone has a right to be here, and comment on their location, I dont care if they are from Florida.

[DaculaWeather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED IN THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
WILL BE WARMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHANGE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FREEZING...WILL BE THE TIME WHEN ICE ACCUMULATION
ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE LIKELY...AND GLAZING OF ROADS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND...AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE
LARGER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

[DaculaWeather]

New map

 

[DaculaWeather]

It's funny (well... not really) those shaded areas in Alabama are Freezing Rain Advisories for up to 1/4" of freezing rain. Look at us. Looks remarkably similar to the last storm where we got zippo.

[Lowpressure]

Dacula=try not to get too worked up over ATL comment. Obviously that poster has no clue. You, as well as many other do very well at representing the region covered in this thread. We count on the more senior posters in our particular areas for specifics, but enjoy getting the entire scope. Your site is very good at covering the SOUTHEAST! Thanks for what you do. Oh I live outside of CLT-NC!

[DaculaWeather]

Dacula=try not to get too worked up over ATL comment. Obviously that poster has no clue. You, as well as many other do very well at representing the region covered in this thread. We count on the more senior posters in our particular areas for specifics, but enjoy getting the entire scope. Your site is very good at covering the SOUTHEAST! Thanks for what you do. Oh I live outside of CLT-NC!

Thank you... sorry but that flew all over me... like Chris says... "You wouldn't like me when I'm mad" :-)

 

I really do try to provide resources for everyone in the southeast, and while NC does have more posters, I like our Georgia crew. You never hear any nasty comments from any of them. Well, except me! :-)

[Hammer]

Dacula=try not to get too worked up over ATL comment. Obviously that poster has no clue. You, as well as many other do very well at representing the region covered in this thread. We count on the more senior posters in our particular areas for specifics, but enjoy getting the entire scope. Your site is very good at covering the SOUTHEAST! Thanks for what you do. Oh I live outside of CLT-NC!

Agreed... 

[Lookout]

kind of annoying that random places like ATL and CAE keep gettign mentioned (especially ATL) where they are going to receive barely anything more than a slight glaze tht wil barely affect traffic...what about AVL, GSO, ROA, RDU, CLT and FAY? cities that are actually in the firing line?

You just earned yourself a timeout. Congrats!

[FallsLake]

one of us has the wrong map. The qpf map I see from the 6Z GFS has most of central NC, including us, in the .01-.10 qpf...with only .10 amounts east toward the coast.

My fault; I thought you were talking about the NAM. Your right about the GFS. Hopefully it does not win this "small" battle.

 

On another note: RAH last night still thinks this will be a high impact event. They compared this potentail event to the 2005 1" snow that shut down Raleigh. They said the 1" only had .04 liquid which means greater than 20:1 ratios. Yesterday they were also talking about 20:1 ratios. They're thinking that the Triangle area may get between .1 and .2 liquid. If .1 of that is snow we could still be looking at 1-2 inches of snow with a light glaze on top. Still very interesting event.

[gritsnc]

Brining of the roads has begun here. Is there a temp that is too low for brine to work? Just curious.

[metalicwx366]

People are really wishing for a large ice storm to happen in Atlanta? Seriously? I'm all for snow and even some sleet, but ice is too dangerous in a large metro like this. Lives will be lost if there is a huge ice event. It also causes major traffic issues. I'm glad we are modeled too not get much. Not everyone here is hoping for work and school off in exchange for dangerous conditions.

Won't be a big deal for Atlanta. Too far S and when the precipitation does reach Atlanta it'll be in the form of rain. Now if the precip comes in earlier than models suggest then you have the likelihood of about an hour or two of Freezing rain and or Sleet. Areas North of ATL that's a different story.

[QC_Halo]

Matty Ice's Blog is updated.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2013/01/fresh-surge-of-arctic-air-todaywintry.html?m=1

[POWERSTROKE]

Brining of the roads has begun here. Is there a temp that is too low for brine to work? Just curious.

i would guess under 20. Rock salt does not work well under 20 however that is what dot uses due to the cost of other products. Under 20 rock salt works slowly however surface will refreeze quickly unless sun is on it. I for one think the brime is useless. I looked into buying a brime unit but personally think it is a waste of time. It is suppose to make it easier to clear roads. Look at roads if we get at least 4 or more inches. They are not clean after they plow

[RevDodd]

On another note: RAH last night still thinks this will be a high impact event. They compared this potentail event to the 2005 1" snow that shut down Raleigh. They said the 1" only had .04 liquid which means greater than 20:1 ratios. Yesterday they were also talking about 20:1 ratios. They're thinking that the Triangle area may get between .1 and .2 liquid. If .1 of that is snow we could still be looking at 1-2 inches of snow with a light glaze on top. Still very interesting event.

 

When I read the RAH was calling for a low-high event, I couldn't help wondering how much their thoughts were shaded by that 2005 event. The timing is similar as well.It was an unholy zoo across the Triangle that evening.

 

And for arwx, wherever you are: Here's the NAM sounding for Faynam when it appears the bulk of precip is falling (such as it is). The GFS is similar in that both look like freezing light rain for about a 6-hour window beginning sometime Fri. afternoon.

[msuwx]

Matty Ice's Blog is updated. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2013/01/fresh-surge-of-arctic-air-todaywintry.html?m=1

Matty Ice.... haha... very nice.

 

Just posted the discussion up there right now.....

 

Dry air......lots of it. 

[Stovepipe]

MRX dialed back their wording overnight, doesn't sound nearly as serious of an event but still the possibility of quarter inch of ice for the valley ending with rain. They must have latched on to the GFS.

[NavarreDon]

GSP did a great update at 5:00am on the short term so they could look @ the 06Z NAM & GFS. It addresses some of the Q's about dropping watches that where posted last night.

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT RANGE ISTHE PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. WHAT WE HAVE FOR FRIDAY BOILSDOWN TO A QPF PROBLEM.LET US BEGIN WITH WHAT IS THOUGHT TO BE MOST CERTAIN. CONFIDENCE ISREASONABLY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NEARLY ALL THEFCST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE LAKELANDS.THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TERMS OF THE THERMAL PROFILESAND PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENTWITH BOTH. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT WARMNOSE AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THECAROLINAS DURING MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT AS PRECIP IS DEVELOPINGAND WORKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND...MOST PLACES WILL SEE AN HOUR OFSLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING. EXCEPTIONS ARE N OFI-40 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVELWARM ADVECTION FAILS TO PENETRATE. THAT KEEPS THE P-TYPE MORE LIKESLEET AND PERHAPS SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE SRN FRINGE SHOULDSEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM ABOVEFREEZING...AS WILL THE FAR WRN MTNS IN GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIESWHICH WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM TRAPPED COLD DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE LIKETHE MTN VALLEYS AND THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTGEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE W OF I-26 BY THE TIME THE PRECIP TAPERS OFFIN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.SO THE QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH PRECIP CAN WE EXPECT? ON THE NEGATIVESIDE...THE MID AND UPPER FORCING SEEN ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOTVERY IMPRESSIVE. THE BEST QG FORCING...DPVA...AND Q CONVERGENCE ALLMOVE PAST TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHO THE NAM DOES PROVIDEFOR A BRIEF SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSSTHE REGION IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY IMPARTING A QUICK SHOT WHENDECENT RATES ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL START OUTVERY DRY...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL BE LOSTTO EVAPORATION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...LOW LEVEL FORCING ISRESPECTABLE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM 295K TO 285K MOVING IN FROMTHE WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATESEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVELWARM ADVECTION. THE QUALITY OF THE FORCING DOWN LOW IS SUCH THATPRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOPUSH BACK THE ONSET...AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE WRN MTNS...LATEMORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WRNPIEDMONT. SO PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FROM WEST TO EASTTHROUGH THE TIME OF THE BEST FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE SHOULDKEEP IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATIONDOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN A HIGH AMOUNT.A CONSIDERATION OF MODEL QPF SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL FALL SHORT OFREACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE SW MTNS OFNC...WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARD PRECIPTOTALS IN THE RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THATDOES NOT GIVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT EXPANDING THE WATCH. IFTHERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT PRECIP COULD EXCEED ONE QUARTERINCH...A WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED...BUT A LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM/ 06ZGFS/ 00Z ECMWF REVEALS A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP TOTALS. THUS...PREFER TO MANAGE EXPECTATIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ANDNOT EXPAND THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE...THINK WE ARELOOKING AT AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IT IS TOOEARLY TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. THERE IS ALSONOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING OVER THE MTNSEITHER...SO WE WILL LET THE WATCH RIDE.THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITHSOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH THEEARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE PULLS OUT AROUNDDAYBREAK SATURDAY SO THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THEN. HIGHPRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

[Brick Tamland]

My fault; I thought you were talking about the NAM. Your right about the GFS. Hopefully it does not win this "small" battle.

 

On another note: RAH last night still thinks this will be a high impact event. They compared this potentail event to the 2005 1" snow that shut down Raleigh. They said the 1" only had .04 liquid which means greater than 20:1 ratios. Yesterday they were also talking about 20:1 ratios. They're thinking that the Triangle area may get between .1 and .2 liquid. If .1 of that is snow we could still be looking at 1-2 inches of snow with a light glaze on top. Still very interesting event.

 

RAH must have been reading my posts here.

[GaWx]

6Z GFS N Georgia ZR amounts are .13 at Gainseville, .06 at Marietta, .05 for NE Atlanta, .03 at Athens, and .02 at Atlanta airport/southside. None measurable for Peachtree City though a close call. Pretty similar to 0Z GFS. Key is getting precip. in early while cold is still in place. Still looking for a light glaze for this general area of .01-.10" with heavier tending to be on northside where more precip. has been modeled.

[weatherheels]

With the GFS and Euto both very similar, at least in regards to qpf output and precip field, this storm has lost it's luster.

What's so great about this event compared to last weeks is we're not being set up for disappointment but rather surprise. Not saying this event will produce but I know I would rather be advertised nothing and be pleasantly surprised when something does happen instead of the opposite.

[eyewall]

For Central NC this looks like a nuisance event that is tough to get excited about. None the less I will put out an updated call a little later.

[Brick Tamland]

For Central NC this looks like a nuisance event that is tough to get excited about. None the less I will put out an updated call a little later.

 

I think it would be more than just a little nuisance. I bet this has a bigger impact on things than the last event around here. I also think we could see more precip than is being advertised.

[burgertime]

I think it would be more than just a little nuisance. I bet this has a bigger impact on things than the last event around here. I also think we could see more precip than is being advertised.

 

What makes you think that and why?

[Brick Tamland]

What makes you think that and why?

 

Because when it comes to the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen. The last event only gave me between 1.5 and 2 inches of snow and had really no impact on the roads. And it was advertised as bringing a little more snow. So, no reason not to think this could bring a little more precip than advertised. Plus, even if it only does as much as the last event, it will have colder temps and probably ice on top of it. Even one inch of snow with ice on top will be a bigger impact this time around here than the last snow.

[WXinCanton]

Looks like the GFS actually has a little more QPF than the NAM at 6Z.   Maybe we can get the streak/finger of precip that always seems to arrive earlier than the models show, I believe Lookout had mentioned that.   Seems to happen more times than not with these types of systems.

 

Good gosh what was that fool saying last night about ATL and CAE???   Thanks Mods for addressing it!!!

[Mr Bob]

Because when it comes to the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen. The last event only gave me between 1.5 and 2 inches of snow and had really no impact on the roads. And it was advertised as bringing a little more snow. So, no reason not to think this could bring a little more precip than advertised. Plus, even if it only does as much as the last event, it will have colder temps and probably ice on top of it. Even one inch of snow with ice on top will be a bigger impact this time around here than the last snow.

It's hard to believe you have been on this board as long as you have and cannot assess the difference between tomorrow's event and last week's event. "...the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen"   This is a situational thing...an upper low is very difficult to model...These are the types of things that irritate the crap out of experienced posters...you know better than this.

[Brick Tamland]

It's hard to believe you have been on this board as long as you have and cannot assess the difference between tomorrow's event and last week's event. "...the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen"   This is a situational thing...an upper low is very difficult to model...These are the types of things that irritate the crap out of experienced posters...you know better than this.

 

There have been plenty of times with events like this where it has been more or less than advertised, too. All I am saying is even if it is not much and is just an inch or two like last week, I think this will have a higher impact than last week. That was my point.

 

[Solak]

One big difference this week compared to last week - soil temps are now 10-12° colder. Most reporting stations west of Goldsboro are 40° or less - last week they were in the upper 40s/lower 50's in most locations.

[franklin NCwx]

06z RGEM

[Local Yokel Wx]

Brick Tamland 8:35am... "Because when it comes to the models it's really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen. The last event only gave me between 1.5 and 2 inches of snow and had really no impact on the roads. And it was advertised as bringing a little more snow. So, no reason not to think this could bring a little more precip than advertised. Plus, even if it only does as much as the last event, it will have colder temps and probably ice on top of it. Even one inch of snow with ice on top will be a bigger impact this time around here than the last snow."

 

 

Then dont follow the model analysis going on here and really the only thing that should be coming across the feed. Burger asked why, not how you feel. Give some analytical insight, not a gut feeling with a weak and as Mr. Bob said, unrelated event. Im happy to say i have found the block button for your post. Smooth sailing for me in 2013. Sorry for the rant yall.