BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's incredibly fascinating to me the top analog for this event is a system that actually dropped about 5" of snow IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Through 30 hours, 0z GFS s/w a bit SW of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You know what else made the top 10 analogs off CIPS?The Blizzard of 96. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The computer generated snowfall maps are based on some pre-set algorithms that are not really valid this event. Unfortunately the snowtopia for the ski areas will be greatly reduced by mixed precip. I was hoping earlier, but resistance is futile. The critical thickness lines are quite spread out geographically. As noted in previous pages the warm nose is above 850. The 152 line (850-700) is quite a bit north of the traditional 540 line (1000-500). The 152 pushes into Virginia while the 540 might be giving false hope northwest NC. The warm nose is forecast above the freezing 850 temps. Though one could hope for evaporational cooling, it's hard to ignore that 152 line displacement so far north screaming above freezing aloft. Finally the 132 line (1000-850) is buried in North Georgia and upstate SC. Looks like a deep cold air mass, and after several days of cold. The ice storm for the Carolinas could be brutal. In spite of MOS Upstate SC may not really get above freezing during the event thanks to CAD. North Georgia is still in play with the wedge. Closer to home I'm hoping Chattanooga gets above freezing later Friday, as forecast by models, because I like having power. Nashville may get above freezing later Friday. Thankfully we are not subject to the CAD so MOS might have a prayer. Knoxville and the Tri Cities may be in more trouble just because they are farther north. NC Piedmont should have the best chance of damaging ice accumulation in CAD Nation. The deep cold air, and the warm nose so high up, will promote a lot of sleet with freezing rain. The sleet will stick to the glaze and cause rapid ice accumulation. This will probably be my last post for the event as I shift to work duties. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 00z is practically the same as 18z maybe a hair drier in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hope is so overrated .... OK, are we ever due for one of those shocking, start-a-trend, jackpot runs of the GFS. Half again increase in QPF with colder temps all around. My pessimism hasn't gotten us anywhere, so let's kick off the 0z run with a little hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 00z GFS drier, but ever so slightly colder at asurface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Disappointing run, but a continuation of the trends of today's model runs. Unless midday tomorrow turns around, I'm writing this off as nothing more than some token flurries or glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Precip much more anemic over NC -- big area up I-77 from Charlotte with less than .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The computer generated snowfall maps are based on some pre-set algorithms that are not really valid this event. Unfortunately the snowtopia for the ski areas will be greatly reduced by mixed precip. I was hoping earlier, but resistance is futile. This will probably be my last post for the event as I shift to work duties. Good luck! Thanks for posting! I could have not said it better myself, 10 years from now. The NAM snowfall in north-west NC is likely a fluke....have already seen something similar this year where it was over a foot but instead saw mixing to slash totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DT might want to update his map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NEXT! BINGO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Remember all that precip Ukie was generating? Not so much with 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 KCAE may as well remove wintry weather in our forecast. This run of the NAM and Hi-Res NAM give us absolutely no moisture and warmer for us down here. w00t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Remember all that precip Ukie was generating? Not so much with 0z run. UKIE precip.gif Nice map, but not the UK precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sure? Nice map, but not the UK precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sure? It was showing up as a December 26, 2010 500mb vorticity map when I first saw it. Probably some problem with the Vortex site. I can't delete my post either because of this stupid broken board upgrade that's still not working right after several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is definitely the UKIE precip map at 48, need to wait to see what falls after 0z Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not much qpf on the 0z gfs but what is there is a zr sounding imo for the RDU area. Date: 48 hour AVN valid 0Z SAT 26 JAN 13Station: KRDULatitude: 35.87Longitude: -78.78-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1006 105 -0.4 -1.8 90 1.4 -0.9 233 7 272.3 272.8 271.9 281.3 3.33 1 1000 154 -0.6 -2.3 89 1.6 -1.3 235 10 272.5 273.0 271.9 281.3 3.23 2 950 562 -2.1 -3.1 93 1.0 -2.5 234 30 275.0 275.5 273.3 283.8 3.19 3 900 995 2.5 1.7 94 0.8 2.1 241 46 284.1 285.0 280.3 297.6 4.81 4 850 1459 2.9 2.1 94 0.9 2.5 255 51 289.2 290.1 283.1 304.2 5.23 5 800 1948 0.9 0.3 95 0.6 0.6 264 52 292.1 293.0 283.9 306.3 4.87 6 750 2465 -1.6 -2.2 95 0.6 -1.9 265 56 294.8 295.6 284.4 307.6 4.32 7 700 3012 -4.8 -5.0 99 0.2 -4.9 262 60 297.2 297.8 284.7 308.4 3.76 8 650 3592 -7.5 -8.8 91 1.2 -8.0 258 66 300.4 301.0 285.2 309.7 3.03 9 600 4212 -10.0 -16.3 60 6.3 -11.9 260 71 304.5 304.9 285.4 310.2 1.79 10 550 4880 -12.5 -29.0 24 16.5 -16.0 266 76 309.3 309.4 285.8 311.4 0.63 11 500 5602 -16.3 -39.0 12 22.6 -19.8 271 84 313.1 313.2 286.8 314.1 0.26 12 450 6386 -21.8 -40.8 16 18.9 -24.3 271 89 315.8 315.9 287.6 316.7 0.24 13 400 7242 -27.4 -46.1 15 18.7 -29.2 272 99 319.3 319.4 288.7 319.9 0.15 14 350 8190 -34.1 -52.7 14 18.5 -35.3 273 103 322.7 322.8 289.7 323.1 0.08 15 300 9252 -41.6 -56.6 18 15.0 -42.2 271 104 326.8 326.8 290.9 327.0 0.06 16 250 10462 -51.0 -58.5 41 7.5 -51.2 273 106 330.2 330.2 291.8 330.5 0.06 17 200 11880 -60.2 -61.8 81 1.7 -60.2 272 109 337.5 337.5 293.7 337.7 0.05 18 150 13657 -62.5 -68.8 42 6.4 -62.6 271 106 362.5 362.5 299.2 362.6 0.02 19 100 16138 -66.3 -80.0 13 13.7 -66.5 275 87 399.5 399.5 305.2 399.6 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ji: gfs can't handle this. the high res models are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess some only use the GFS. I highly doubt Winter Storm Watches are going to get pulled...they were probably not put into place because of the GFS in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Idk guys what you think? Anyone have the GGem or any of the Canadian models? Seems like GFS is awfully dry but has been pretty consistent and then the NAM has trended better for 3 consecutive runs. Gosh this is ridiculous with these models lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Disappointing run, but a continuation of the trends of today's model runs. Unless midday tomorrow turns around, I'm writing this off as nothing more than some token flurries or glaze. So, you're not counting the previous run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS/NAM both have precip pretty much done after 48, so I would expect that's about it except maybe in coastal areas. Not TOO bad, but certainly not some of those 1"+ totals from yesterday. This is definitely the UKIE precip map at 48, need to wait to see what falls after 0z Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For me, in the short term, GFS kicked the NAM's tail last week. I guess some only use the GFS. I highly doubt Winter Storm Watches are going to get pulled...they were probably not put into place because of the GFS in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks for posting! I could have not said it better myself, 10 years from now. The NAM snowfall in north-west NC is likely a fluke....have already seen something similar this year where it was over a foot but instead saw mixing to slash totals. What event do you keep referring to?? I surely don't recall an event that was calling for a foot and got something else? I've been in Boone all winter and have kept track of every storm with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess some only use the GFS. I highly doubt Winter Storm Watches are going to get pulled...they were probably not put into place because of the GFS in the first place. NWS policy on its Winter Weather products wouldn't allow any removal of a Winter Storm Watch. They either have to replace it with a Warning if its felt like Warning criteria will be met or a Winter Weather Advisory if the numbers are lowered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I am discounting them, especially after last week. If the NAM is a high outlier on precip, to bet on it to pan out would the definition of foolishness. So, you're not counting the previous run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.