burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Would that little bit of QPF (<.25) not mostly evaporate in this cold dry airmass? I would think it would have to get a lot juicier to get an event. It shouldn't effect it too much I wouldn't think. Maybe shave .03 - .05 tops IMHO...if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I guess the operational EURO's QPF agrees with the GFS Ensemble Mean QPF...it will be interesting to see what the ECMWF ensembles show as far as QPF... Wow, that looks scary similar to the qpf field spit out by the Euro.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well you were right in one aspect, the GFS seems to be the correct model, if you ignore CMC/NoGaps. Pretty amazing, if this hold the GFS has been kicking the Euro's butt inside 4 days. I totally disagree with this assumption. The Euro ensembels painted 1-3 inches of snow across northern NC since last Saturday a.m. @ 0z. The Euro operational for 3 straight runs has had this coming out of TN across NC while the GFS until oz today has had this storm going from TN up through KY/southern OH and jumping to the coast. The Euro has wiped the GFS out with this. The GFS trended to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 purely anecdotal evidence here, but it has been my experience that the models often have a good handle on what will actually make it to the surface. That is not always the case, obviously, and the dry air will be a concern. BUT...I see more reasons to be optimistic here than pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, it loos like the models are trending more to the Euro than vice versa. Even if it's not 3 to 4 inches of all snow here and there is mixing, this could be a big impact on the roads with the temps being so cold. It might be even worse if there is mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It looks like a very borderline WWA/WSW criteria type of event...but I think they will have to go with WSW because of the antecedent cold ground conditions this time around considering what has happened in the past from nonsignificant accumulating wintry precip in the area around the triangle... Even if your snow criteria isn't met, the potential significant impacts it could cause for travel concerns for 2-3 days is alarming... Yeah, it loos like the models are trending more to the Euro than vice versa. Even if it's not 3 to 4 inches of all snow here and there is mixing, this could be a big impact on the roads with the temps being so cold. It might be even worse if there is mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro cut my qpf almost in half from 00z run was.42 now .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I totally disagree with this assumption. The Euro ensembels painted 1-3 inches of snow across northern NC since last Saturday a.m. @ 0z. The Euro operational for 3 straight runs has had this coming out of TN across NC while the GFS until oz today has had this storm going from TN up through KY/southern OH and jumping to the coast. The Euro has wiped the GFS out with this. The GFS trended to the Euro. The euro trended to a more progressive weaker solution ala GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've seen a few comments on the virga aspect of this event and how much QPF would be lost to low dewpoints. What is currently in place, at least over the Triad, is some very dry air. Not a single ice crystal on the cars this morning. The kind of dry cold that "freezes boogers" as my young daughter like to say,LOL. There have certainly been a few events over the last couple of winters where we lost significant moisture and came up short on QPF. So why (Burger) would anyone say we won't lose QPF this time given the very dry air already in place? Just trying to understand what I and others may be overlooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What was the set-up for the January 10-11, 2011 storm. I remember that the big issue was how dry the cold air was. This limited the accumulation to near notthing north of Fayretteville. Wonder if this will be an issue for VA, with areas closer to the low center being able to overcome the dry air better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've seen a few comments on the virga aspect of this event and how much QPF would be lost to low dewpoints. What is currently in place, at least over the Triad, is some very dry air. Not a single ice crystal on the cars this morning. The kind of dry cold that "freezes boogers" as my young daughter like to say,LOL. There have certainly been a few events over the last couple of winters where we lost significant moisture and came up short on QPF. So why (Burger) would anyone say we won't lose QPF this time given the very dry air already in place? Just trying to understand what I and others may be overlooking. There's a 100% chance that in air this dry, some precip will evaporate. The questions are 1) How much? and 2 ) Are the QPFs on the models what actually makes it to the ground (in other words, does .3 mean what falls AFTER evaporation)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From my experience models almost always overestimate precip totals, although I don't know if that's because they don't take evaporation into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What was the set-up for the January 10-11, 2011 storm. I remember that the big issue was how dry the cold air was. This limited the accumulation to near notthing north of Fayretteville. Wonder if this will be an issue for VA, with areas closer to the low center being able to overcome the dry air better? I'm pretty sure it was a significantly different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I must say I've never seen those maps before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ENS mean is very similar to the operational EUro with regards to track/thermal profile. Taken literally the euro ensemble mean snowfall forecast is 3-4 over western Va, NE TN. 2-3 rest of Va, western/northern NC, east TN. 1-2 for southern foothills/piedmont of NC into central coastal plains. Also extrem NW SC (upstate) and NE Ga and east-central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've seen a few comments on the virga aspect of this event and how much QPF would be lost to low dewpoints. What is currently in place, at least over the Triad, is some very dry air. Not a single ice crystal on the cars this morning. The kind of dry cold that "freezes boogers" as my young daughter like to say,LOL. There have certainly been a few events over the last couple of winters where we lost significant moisture and came up short on QPF. So why (Burger) would anyone say we won't lose QPF this time given the very dry air already in place? Just trying to understand what I and others may be overlooking. I didn't say we wouldn't loose precip...just I don't think we will loose that much. In my experience it's usually overblown. Maybe a met can settle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GSP is not impressed. From their afternoon disco: " AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THU NIGHT...MOISTISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH POPS RAMPING UPFROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THATTHERE WILL BE DEEP AND SATURATED WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH BELOW FREEZINGSURFACE TEMPS...ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO FALL OVER THE WESTERNNORTH CAROLINA BY LATE THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POPS ANDQPF VALUES...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW IMPACT AT THIS TIME. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GSP is not impressed. From their afternoon disco: " AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THU NIGHT...MOISTISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH POPS RAMPING UPFROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THATTHERE WILL BE DEEP AND SATURATED WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH BELOW FREEZINGSURFACE TEMPS...ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO FALL OVER THE WESTERNNORTH CAROLINA BY LATE THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW POPS ANDQPF VALUES...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW IMPACT AT THIS TIME. " That's the 3am disco. It should be updated shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm pretty sure it was a significantly different setup. Aye - correct. It was a large upper disturbance that came at us from the Gulf side with a solid negative tilt and lots of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ENS mean is very similar to the operational EUro with regards to track/thermal profile. Taken literally the euro ensemble mean snowfall forecast is 3-4 over western Va, NE TN. 2-3 rest of Va, western/northern NC, east TN. 1-2 for southern foothills/piedmont of NC into central coastal plains. Also extrem NW SC (upstate) and NE Ga and east-central TN. Just looked at the 0z Euro ENS, it had roughly 0.3" for RDU, sounds like the 12z ENS is close? My 12z ENS precip info updates later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ENS mean is very similar to the operational EUro with regards to track/thermal profile. Taken literally the euro ensemble mean snowfall forecast is 3-4 over western Va, NE TN. 2-3 rest of Va, western/northern NC, east TN. 1-2 for southern foothills/piedmont of NC into central coastal plains. Also extrem NW SC (upstate) and NE Ga and east-central TN. Thanks for the update. It sounds like a moderate event for some west of the apps and more a nuissance event for many east of the apps. At least it's "wintry" and not rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can settle it...no...I don't expect dry air to be that much of a problem because: 1) Winds switch to the S and SE before the event (moister flow) 2) Initial light precip will likely evaporate (1st hour) and this raises the dewpoint and quickly saturates the air I didn't say we wouldn't loose precip...just I don't think we will loose that much. In my experience it's usually overblown. Maybe a met can settle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Mid Atlantic Weather 57 minutes ago · Snow potential for most of VA and now into NC increased! Northern VA and MD - European has really brought down snow totals there. Central VA looks good on this run. So I am convinced of a snowy/wintry Friday for a lot of VA and NC, not sure of amounts and again, light to moderate snow system seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't shoot me, but the NAM has the vort max farther south coming into Oregon / northern Nevada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 WxSouth says: The biggest question on this one will be how much moisture there is. All models have their ideas, if there is more digging west, then more overall precip. Right now ECMWF model looks about right, after it cut it's total amounts in HALF from the previous way-overdone amounts in NC, VA where the heart of the snow and sleet is coming. For upper sections just below the cold air, around nor...thern Alabama and northern GA and central SC..there could be sleet to start the event. In between for middle Tn, to lower piedmont NC, and upstate SC, this area is the transition zone between all snow north, and sleet to rain south. As always ,there's plenty of time to track the trends on this (further east==>drier, further south==>wetter) In the end, it's a very stout clipper system, and areas north of the track will get accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't shoot me, but the NAM has the vort max farther south coming into Oregon / northern Nevada Looks further south @48 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't shoot me, but the NAM has the vort max farther south coming into Oregon / northern Nevada Well, we have seen these systems dig futher south and go from the models depicting a Miller B to a full-fledged, gulf-tapped Miller A. I don't see that happening on this one though. I'll take .25 and call it a day. Oh shoot, we're not in STORM MODE any longer: "DIG BABY, DIG!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Don't shoot me, but the NAM has the vort max farther south coming into Oregon / northern Nevada Won't shoot you, we'll follow the NAM all the way to the day of, then we need to toss it....far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.