beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Stopped clock, right? I wish the NAM would be right for once on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 im gonna run through the bufkit and see what it says on this latest nam run. it's the only way you can get a true sounding in systems like this. it wasn't workong on my comp before the last storm for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the snow totals in far NW NC. It's been consistent at least 2 runs in a row now with totals ranging in the 8-12"+ range. And it should be all snow it appears at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah as far as anyone seeing an ice storm I'd agree...my concerns are at the airport, Just 1 hour of PL or FZRA there and its going to be a problem. Fwiw, yesterday's 6Z, 12Z and 18Z GFS as well as today's 0Z GFS actually had ZR verbatim at the airport (as much as ~0.10" and with temp.'s down to as low as 29 F). The only thing missing now is the early moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the snow totals in far NW NC. It's been consistent at least 2 runs in a row now with totals ranging in the 8-12"+ range. And it should be all snow it appears at this point. I only see that range w/ the NAM snowfall maps...which...are not all that great skill wise. It will depict freezing rain in the mountains as a foot of snow sometimes, as I have noticed this year...actually near the same location it is predicting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Stopped clock, right? I'll take anything at this point. I am sick of 1/4 inch snowfalls. I am enjoying that we're having opportunities again though. Eventually we'll get a hit. I guess some did get a hit during the last storm. Just not south of I40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 All of the sref members now have a storm where as before only a few did. Money spot is ne tn, mtns nc anx sw va. Maybe extreme n ga mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM all sleet in HKY/INT/RDU with a coating of zr to end. CLT looks like IP to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wasn't there some new recon flight information that was included with the 0z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is why I think schools will be okay for the majority of their day...timing also slowing down. Does that matter in this thread? Mr banter officer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does that matter in this thread? Mr banter officer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IF we do indeed get over .25 qpf in the form of sleet along the I40 corridor, it's likely we'll have the worst road conditions in many years friday evening into saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 All of the sref members now have a storm where as before only a few did. Money spot is ne tn, mtns nc anx sw va. Maybe extreme n ga mtns.. It seems to me the jet structure is playing as much or at least a key role in generating precip maybe moreso than just sw energy. If that's the case then west-east trajectory is ideal for getting ore graphical lift from the higher terrain. Maybe that's what's causing the spike in more qpf presentation on the models today in the mountain areas. It's definitely gonna play a role in down sloping on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, regular soundings looked like 2/3 sleet and 1/3 zr in Shelby. NAM all sleet in HKY/INT/RDU with a coating of zr to end. CLT looks like IP to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z HWRF is interesting, has a precip streaking right down I-40 from about Asheville to the coast, roughly 0.4-0.5". Than another swatch of precip on the NC/VA border. In between these swaths is a 0.1-0.2" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IF we do indeed get over .25 qpf in the form of sleet along the I40 corridor, it's likely we'll have the worst road conditions in many years friday evening into saturday. Yeah, regular soundings looked like 2/3 sleet and 1/3 zr in Shelby. ZR on top of sleet is bad news. Much rather start as snow and get a layer on top...at least that way it typically will crack the ice under weight...zr over sleet will be a hard to crack sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HWRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 OK, are we ever due for one of those shocking, start-a-trend, jackpot runs of the GFS. Half again increase in QPF with colder temps all around. My pessimism hasn't gotten us anywhere, so let's kick off the 0z run with a little hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IF we do indeed get over .25 qpf in the form of sleet along the I40 corridor, it's likely we'll have the worst road conditions in many years friday evening into saturday. How is sleet measured for reporting's sake? Since water expands when frozen, I would imagine that 0.25 inch of QPF that falls as sleet would amount to more than 0.25 inch deep on the ground. Is this correct? What's a good ratio for determining sleet depth? 2:1? 4:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Single digit dewpoints so im looking for a big verga storm then maybe a little snow and sleet. Dry air will eat up alot of moisture for alot of areas It is rare to ever see your input. I am taking Robert has similar beliefs as you? Or is at least acknowledging the dry dew-points...I tried earlier but some are taking every model output to the tenth of a inch to how much snow/precip they might see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Hi Res NAM 0z. Looks good for many in northeast TN, nw NC, sw VA, southeast KY, southern & southeast Virginia, and northeast NC (heck even parts of NE Georgia and sw NC.) Pretty widespread if you ask me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Rgem has max qpf over sw nc se tenn and north ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 HWRF... The bottom of the map says NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It is rare to ever see your input. I am taking Robert has similar beliefs as you? Or is at least acknowledging the dry dew-points...I tried earlier but some are taking every model output to the tenth of a inch to how much snow/precip they might see. Thats because models take virga into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The bottom of the map says NAM? It's the 4km NAM, 4km HWRF, 4km Hi-RES, whichever you like to call it. Probably should just call it the 4km NAM, the one that comes out at 9pm was the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Very similar QPF output to the 12z GGEM at 60 hours. BIG difference those is temps -- 60 hour GGEM had 850 OC line straddling NC/VA border. oz RGEM at 48 hours has it well down along I-40. Rgem has max qpf over sw nc se tenn and north ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thats because models take virga into account. Eh...I think most of here have seen models show a tenth or so and it not hit the ground with very low dew-points. Not saying that will be the case...but I agree with Powerstroke on eating up some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How is sleet measured for reporting's sake? Since water expands when frozen, I would imagine that 0.25 inch of QPF that falls as sleet would amount to more than 0.25 inch deep on the ground. Is this correct? What's a good ratio for determining sleet depth? 2:1? 4:1? Based on major ATL IP events, I'd say it averages ~~3:1. There seems to be a lot of variance. IP does seem to be about three times as dense as wet snow on average. So, I'd say that a 3" IP event is about as good as ~9" of wet snow. Actually, I think that 3" of IP would probably last longer than 9" of snow in many cases due to the density of IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Based on major ATL IP events, I'd say it averages ~~3:1. There seems to be a lot of variance. IP does seem to be about three times as dense as wet snow on average. I've usually heard 3:1 as the general rule, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Eh...I think most of here have seen models show a tenth or so and it not hit the ground with very low dew-points. Not saying that will be the case...but I agree with Powerstroke on eating up some precip. Feel free to give us some analogs and past maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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