RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This run of the NAM is a little juicier than the 18z run for the Triangle. A look at the RDU soundings show a snow sounding at 18z as the preicp begins, but it is a sleet sounding by 21z but looks like about 0.1 inches of QPF falls between 18z and 21z in the Raleigh area. So taken literally, it looks like a dusting to an inch or so of snow to sleet and maybe some freezing rain. A mess with surface temps in the 25-30 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM has my area of NE GA at about .2 - .3" QPF with the sfc below freezing the whole time. Looks like a nice glaze coming up. Jason, how far south does that amount go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It's almost all sleet if you're in the area bounded by 40 and 77 in the piedmont and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM verbatim is 0.44" of precip for RDU, looks like it starts as now and than flips to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. 1/21-30 is the ten day period with the highest concentration of major ZR storms at Atlanta. Moreover, two of those occured after warm Decembers and they were also during neutral negative ENSO like the present case. So, climowise, the 7's are all lined up so to speak. Moroever, like that one, there was no really big classic looking CAD high that time as you noted (only ~1026 mb centered in ~VA) although that one did have classic easterly winds through the event. The only thing is that that one produced over 1.5" of liquid at KATL and much of the Atlanta area. Based on my notes, although only Kirk Mellish (WSB radio) of the local mets actually predicted a mix, that one was progged in advance to be much wetter than this one rainfallwise. This one hasn't been progged to be any more than ~0.25" to this point for the CAD portion. That one had westerly 500 mb flow (which became WSW late as the storm passed). This one has had a drier mostly WNW 500 mb flow progged (as it approaches) for several days now. That is almost never a wet situation for nonmountainous N GA. So, I agree with the models that there won't be nearly as much moisture this time. I am hoping that the models at least trend back toward 0.25" of ZR through an earlier start to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SE Va, Tidewater, could end up the nice winner on this event, w.r.t snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM verbatim is 0.44" of precip for RDU, looks like it starts as now and than flips to sleet. Correct. A little snow, a lot of sleet, some freezing rain. What a mess that would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Single digit dewpoints so im looking for a big verga storm then maybe a little snow and sleet. Dry air will eat up alot of moisture for alot of areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Shelby soundings (and I presume CLT, et al) still snowless -- sleet at onset, transitioning to freezing rain. Still only about .25 of qpf, as best I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM verbatim is 0.44" of precip for RDU, looks like it starts as now and than flips to sleet. I forecast Raleigh to see mainly PL and then go to ZR...I was counting on that screaming WSW flow resulting in the WAA being underforecast on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Anyone have a link so that I can look at soundings for the Elizabeth City area on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Shelby soundings (and I presume CLT, et al) still snowless -- sleet at onset, transitioning to freezing rain. Still only about .25 of qpf, as best I can tell. At least that should cut down on ZR...would much rather have .1 of sleet and .1 of ZR than .25 of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ^lmao that map should probably go in the banter. Or at least add context and say temp profile don't support all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SE Va, Tidewater, could end up the nice winner on this event, w.r.t snow. Speaking for east of the apps Allan? West of the apps, it looks like parts of northeast TN and sw Virginia/northwest NC could jackpot west of the apps, although I think the text data points to sleet at some point for KTRI (and maybe quite a bit of it). If it doesn't make it there could be a nice snow somewhere within 50 miles of KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 00Z NAM does seem to drop about the same amount of precip as did the 18Z. There are slight upticks in value for NE NC and for NE TN. Otherwise it looks about the same. Here's the 18Z precip for the event. Here's the 00Z precip for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Dry air is always a problem around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What I'm interested to see if the numerical guidance now shows ATL 32 or lower at 15Z, there has been a trend for those temps to drop the last few runs, if its still below 34 at 15Z there is a chance any precip coming in during that time could wet bulb it down. 00z NAM was a bit colder this run over all of GA until about 15Z. 0c 2m line was down to me at 12z, then closer to yall at 15z....QPF needs to be south and East though, and the trends are horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ^lmao that map should probably go in the banter. Or at least add context and say temp profile don't support all snow. no it shouldn't because some of those border counties and NE counties could see all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Single digit dewpoints so im looking for a big verga storm then maybe a little snow and sleet. Dry air will eat up alot of moisture for alot of areas This is why I think schools will be okay for the majority of their day...timing also slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't think there will be much of a problem from zr unless there's closer to .50 of liquid. Most trees can handle close to that amount before they begin to fail. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 no it shouldn't because some of those border counties and NE counties could see all snow. Well you added no context with it...for the most part...that is a pure weenie map posting like I would normally do. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wish the NAM would be right for once on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 3rd run in a row from nam giving my county 3-4 inches snow . I'm thinking 1-3 with sleet having the final say. When if changeover occurs will be deciding factor in how close we get to the 3 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 00z NAM was a bit colder this run over all of GA until about 15Z. 0c 2m line was down to me at 12z, then closer to yall at 15z....QPF needs to be south and East though, and the trends are horrible Yeah as far as anyone seeing an ice storm I'd agree...my concerns are at the airport, Just 1 hour of PL or FZRA there and its going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Check out the difference in forecasted QPF for North Georgia. This morning's 6z NAM Tonight's 0z NAM Guess we'll have to hope for a southward shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Correct. A little snow, a lot of sleet, some freezing rain. What a mess that would be! That would be a complete mess, if the NAM was to verify...hopefully some other model ups the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Tidewater and Northeast NC could see a major snowfall out of this. Even areas north of Rocky Mount could be in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah as far as anyone seeing an ice storm I'd agree...my concerns are at the airport, Just 1 hour of PL or FZRA there and its going to be a problem. That is VERY true...I used to work in the ATL air system when I worked for Delta.....ah....lol I miss that job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just looking at the trends today.............I would not be surprised if the axis of heaviest precip isn't in Kentucky and Virginia by morning. It has trended north quite a bit just today. Either way, this looks a LOT more major then it did 24 hours ago. (at least on the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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