Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice area of precip north of where it was on the 18z in Kentucky. Guess that could translate to better things down the road here for northern NC and southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The big issue I have with the NAM right now is that at 5h it looks different pretty much every run. This one has little pieces of energy in the middle of the US. Not sure if it's making any diff. since nothing is phasing but it's still odd to see it so different on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 39hr has .50 west central TN and southern KY beefed up the QPF a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @42 that precip shield is further NW...might be a tad colder. Very subtle changes on this one with the big change again being that precip shield more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 42 hr has the precip further north into VA and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 39 hours -- 5h s/w south and west of 18z position by small but significant amount. As a result, a bit colder with 10m temps, particularly over Tenn. (sigh, i have to post everything 3 times to get it to post -- is it just me??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @45 HKY might be close to a good snow dump. This run is a little bit colder once the precip moves into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Slower...not good if you are looking for a school delay east of the mountains. Looks like an afternoon/evening event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Its really looking like this might be an Eastern TN, EXtreme NGA, and into the upstate and NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Really beefs up the QPF in southern VA. That would be a good thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Slower...not good if you are looking for a school delay east of the mountains. Looks like an afternoon/evening event. Good if you like accumulating snow, though! Of course, we haven't had a good daytime snow in forever, so I'd love to see some snow with the sun still up, to be honest. 850s look okay for N. NC, though I have a feeling there's a nasty warm nose in there above 850, if past runs are any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 and @48 it's warmer than 18z...still mainly a ZR event in NC this run looks like more QPF for most of NC compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What are the temps like in eastern TN and extreme western NC where that little blob of .75 showed up? Hoping its cold enough because that would be a devastating ice storm for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't know, pretty darrned close on temps. You're right about more precip. and @48 it's warmer than 18z...still mainly a ZR event in NC this run looks like more QPF for most of NC compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What are the temps like in eastern TN and extreme western NC where that little blob of .75 showed up? Hoping its cold enough because that would be a devastating ice storm for those folks. Only us weather weenies would appreciate your statement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 looks about the same overall...maybe higher qpf. Did notice a qpf max of .50 near the VA line not far from here at 48 hours. Verbatim, the VA border counties of NC would do quite well in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You are also right about the ever-changing 500mb look -- one time there are 3 or 4 s/w strung out, then just one -- this time it was more diggy -- south and west of 18z position. and @48 it's warmer than 18z...still mainly a ZR event in NC this run looks like more QPF for most of NC compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't know, pretty darrned close on temps. You're right about more precip. Looking at it closer the QPF is about the same...it just shifted it a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This (the NAM) looks like one of those classic storms from my childhood (late 90s/early 2000s) when we'd get a few inches of snow first, then change over to sleet, and get some ZR at the end. Not to echo Brick too much, but that can lead to some hard-packed ice on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice precip streaking....who knows where this is going to jackpot but someone could get a nice event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ok, good run... Stopped the qpf bleeding, so maybe we're stabilizing in that department from here on out. Will be nice to see the GFS fall in along the same line. I still don't trust the NAM qpf output, though. It always seems to be a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 looks about the same overall...maybe higher qpf. Did notice a qpf max of .50 near the VA line not far from here at 48 hours. Verbatim, the VA border counties of NC would do quite well in the snow department. If the NAM verfies correct, this could be significant for our area. Snow/sleet to freezing rain. If the freezing rain can get to >.25 that meets Winter Storm Criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice precip streaking....who knows where this is going to jackpot but someone could get a nice event... What's very interesting about the NAM is how it really juices up once it gets to the coast. If it keeps that up someone near RDU may get something really good out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 0Z NAM continues the trend of only very light QPF for the ATL-AHN corridor during the CAD. Until that changes, it won't matter much how cold it will be during the CAD although a light glaze would still be quite possible. Actually, light or no precip. means less/no evap. cooling and, therefore, not as cold during the CAD. For at least the time being, this is looking much more like a TN/NC event than a non extreme N GA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Same for us and our neighbors. but nice increase in WV, Va. and NE NC. Looking at it closer the QPF is about the same...it just shifted it a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This (the NAM) looks like one of those classic storms from my childhood (late 90s/early 2000s) when we'd get a few inches of snow first, then change over to sleet, and get some ZR at the end. Not to echo Brick too much, but that can lead to some hard-packed ice on the roads. I was thinking the same thing except it was in the 80s. Been a long time since we have had one like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Same for us and our neighbors. but nice increase in WV, Va. and NE NC. Yea this one is going to be a real headache trying to figure out what and how much might fall. I'm almost ready just to not look at any map and just wait until it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What's very interesting about the NAM is how it really juices up once it gets to the coast. If it keeps that up someone near RDU may get something really good out of this. Be nice if someone can get a nice event out of this, but not sure if the NAM is windshield wiping, is it going to tick more north or is it going to tick back south. Only 36 hours until things kick of in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM has my area of NE GA at about .2 - .3" QPF with the sfc below freezing the whole time. Looks like a nice glaze coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 0Z NAM continues the trend of only very light QPF for the ATL-AHN corridor during the CAD. Until that changes, it won't matter much how cold it will be during the CAD although a light glaze would still be quite possible. Actually, light or no precip. means less/no evap. cooling and, therefore, not as cold during the CAD. What I'm interested to see if the numerical guidance now shows ATL 32 or lower at 15Z, there has been a trend for those temps to drop the last few runs, if its still below 34 at 15Z there is a chance any precip coming in during that time could wet bulb it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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