EmersonGA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. That event was awesome. I was living in Acworth and we had a somewhere between 1/4" and 1/2" of ice on top of a coating of sleet and snow. I remember Glenn MF Burns saying all Saturday that it would warm up above freezing. Finally he got on air at 6pm and said he was wrong and it would not warm above freezing until after the event. We stayed 31 or below the whole system. Didn't that event have more of a true CAD high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. i just hope we can get the precip to fall and early! Most of the time it lags back and i feel if that happends then game over. If i see anything ill be happy. But i do enjoy reading your thoughts hopefully this thing will work out seem kinda out of the blue. NWS had our temps friday in the upper 40's a day ago then changed it to 35 yesterday afternoon. Yeah, I loved the article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this morning. They have edited it now (as WSB caved somewhat), but this morning it was FFC vs. WSB. Karen Minton said they didn't buy the models and had temps in the 50's with rain versus FFC's 30's and ice accumulation. You can always pretty much count on the opposite of whatever wsb and crew forecast. But i will say as a kid i loved watching all the hype hoping for a day out of school! Lets get it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. That was the first of the two ice storms that plagued this city that year, the second one was the one that has eliminated us from hosting a Super Bowl ever since. Really annoying seeing as how the odds of that happening again are not high. That being said, that second ice storm was nasty. We were without power here in northern Gwinnett for almost the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If you think the kids want school cancelled you should see the teachers. I have to admit, since I've retired snow has lost a bit of its excitement for me. I'm off every day now so some of the thrill has gone. I use to love the snow and cold. But living here and trying to find a little hope for a snow storm is getting old, and the company we run has to be closed if there is any snow or ice on the ground in fear of a dumb*** slipping and sueing. That being said i do think what we get will be frozen with this event, but just not Confident we will receive anything other than some showers which will probably freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The talk of ratios is silly. Both the gfs and nam have a warm nose above 850mb. The soundings on bufkit both indiciate sleet in hickory for the majority of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You can see it here pretty clearly. It develops right after the precip starts. The gfs doesn't put down enough precip to even warrant a mention to be honest. (you have to click on image to see it all). The roads will be a complete sheet of ice if this transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RAH mentioned the ratios, but was clear that the window for snow was a small one...like 3 hours at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 18z GFS ensemble members are pretty dry for the SE crew. Looks like .1 or less on a few and .1-.25 for the majority of the members across most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That event was awesome. I was living in Acworth and we had a somewhere between 1/4" and 1/2" of ice on top of a coating of sleet and snow. I remember Glenn MF Burns saying all Saturday that it would warm up above freezing. Finally he got on air at 6pm and said he was wrong and it would not warm above freezing until after the event. We stayed 31 or below the whole system. Didn't that event have more of a true CAD high? Looking at the surface analysis, it appears the high is actually quite a bit stronger this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You are welcome. Problem is, what do you do about getting kids back home?? Roads should be nasty even by mid afternoon. And maybe even some power outages if enough ice accumulates... Like Don said if that time frame verifies the school system will have a 2 or 3 hour delay and then if conditions get bad or are worse they can then close the schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I seriously just want to see some snow fall. The shaft I endured last week was awful. Just heavy ole rain. I had friends ALL AROUND me reporting Thundersnow! I need a good snow quick! Forget ZR....I can do without. I survived 2001and it was NO JOKE! Hope you all are well (and your Families too!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That event was awesome. I was living in Acworth and we had a somewhere between 1/4" and 1/2" of ice on top of a coating of sleet and snow. I remember Glenn MF Burns saying all Saturday that it would warm up above freezing. Finally he got on air at 6pm and said he was wrong and it would not warm above freezing until after the event. We stayed 31 or below the whole system. Didn't that event have more of a true CAD high? No, actually it was a similar setup at the surface with a rather unimpressive looking CAD high of only 1026 mb at its center in VA (actually a bit weaker than this setup). Of course, that one was much wetter with over 1.5" of liquid falling in Atlanta. The followup storm of 1/28-30 had a more classic looking big CAD high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I seriously just want to see some snow fall. The shaft I endured last week was awful. Just heavy ole rain. I had friends ALL AROUND me reporting Thundersnow! I need a good snow quick! Forget ZR....I can do without. I survived 2001and it was NO JOKE! Hope you all are well (and your Families too!) yea I hear you. ten minutes from me the ground was covered with snow as were the roads and all we got at the house was rain. didn't see one flake of snow and was predicted 3-6. 2-4 inch snowfall would kinda mend some wounds from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 18z NAM sfc parameters text output actually has thundersleet and thunder freezing rain for Knoxville and Crossville. Crossville gets .39 inches of precip with temps below 30. Knoxville gets .48 with temps of 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. http://ngeorgia.com/ang/Ice_Jam_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 And notice how EVERYONE got it wrong until the night before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 CAE keeps the same discussion from this morning...... .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYNIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER EXIST ACROSSPORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INBEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEDEWPOINT REALLY DRY OUT AS THE AIRMASS IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. SOURCEOF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADAINDICATES TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES-10 TO -30. MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE INTHE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM BEING THE COLDEST. LOOKING ATMODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE EVENT FRIDAY...EVEN WITH ALL OF THEUNCERTAINTY...LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYFREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.HPC WINTER WX GRAPHICS INDICATES BEST ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THEMIDLANDS/UPSTATE OF SC. BY FRIDAY MORNING...MODELS INDICATE THATTHE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...WITH MODELS SHOWING A COLD AIR DAMMINGSIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE.THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THENORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA...AND WILL FALL CLOSE TO FREEZINGACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THESOUTHWEST...BUT AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THENORTH...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...BUT STRENGTH OF THECOLD AIR ADVECTION/LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE STRONG. THURSDAY NIGHTWILL BE DRY...BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FRIDAYMORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE TIME-FRAME THATGUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WESTAND OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR. PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERYLIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND/LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BASED ONMODEL SOUNDINGS AND VERY DRY AIRMASS TO BEGIN THE EVENTWITH...HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN A MIX OFFREEZING RAIN/SLEET TOWARD MIDDAY AND THEN BACK TO FREEZINGRAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.HAVE GONE BELOW THE LOWEST MET GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY WITHTEMPERATURES RANGING FROM UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 NORTH TO MIDDLE 40SACROSS BURKE COUNTY. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTHE FORECAST AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURE PROFILES...POPS TO ISSUE ANYTYPE OF WATCH FOR ANY PORTION OF THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TOMONITOR THE APPROACHING AIRMASS AND FUTURE COMPUTER MODELS RUNS TOEVALUATE THE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTOTHE UPPER 20S/MIDDLE 30S BEHIND THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The NAM is starting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 http://ngeorgia.com/ang/Ice_Jam_2000 And then... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125 in my neck of the woods. Just taking a stroll down memory lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @24 looks alot like 18z to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sref is wetter for Western nc.eastern tenn too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0z NAM shows the high pressure that will provide the CAD as a tick stronger at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @24 looks alot like 18z to me It's very important for this run to stay at least consistant with the last run. Then we need the GFS to follow. If we lose the NAM (warmer or less QPF) this may not even be a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks a bit colder in GA, but QPF is still over MS at 6z FRI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 only subtle changes through 30 hours on the NAM compared to previous runs. Maybe a tad stronger with the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks to me at 27hr range that heights are flatter across the Texas area not sure if that will matter much in the scheme of things. May allow for it to dig more we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well the northern stream is digging more than the 18z through 36, that has been translating to a warmer run for the SE with the precip ticking north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At Hr 33 5h low is a good bit west of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 looks a tad slower and less precip across TN at 36 hours compared to same time from 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 And notice how EVERYONE got it wrong until the night before... Steve, Looking back at my notes, ALL local ATL TV stations including Glenn Burns and the FFC NWS, indeed, called for a high near 45 on that Saturday and only a little sleet mixed with the rain at the onset. They also called for a low Saturday night down only to ~38 F. However, to be fair, Kirk Mellish did call during the day on Friday for a wintry mix to fall on Saturday. He needs to be credited with that and I give (and have given) him kudos for it. One thing to keep in mind is that whereas 1/22-3/00 was progged by no local other than Mellish to produce sig. wintry precip. in Atlanta with the significant wintry precip. all well to the north, it was progged to be much wetter in the Atlanta area than the current one. The big problem with the current one is the lack of progged moisture. I look at progged dry WNW 500 mb winds as a major hindrance to large amounts of moisture. Atlanta almost never gets very wet when the 500 mb flow is from the WNW. I base this on studying numerous old 500 mb maps. So, this time I haven't been expecting a major storm like 1/22-3/00. However, I was hoping for at least ~0.25" like the GFS had for a good portion of Atlanta metro at one point. I still hope that comes back. An earlier start to the more sig. precip., as was being shown on those wetter GFS runs, would help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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