superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does anyone have info on what the UK Met Model showed at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? I would think those areas would get less ice...and more sleet/snow to not qualify for a winter storm watch. They may be awaiting 0z and to come with an agreement with Blacksburg tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA558 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 ...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGINGPRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN THEMEANTIME...A COLD...STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE...WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE ONSETOF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAINPOSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARMTO ABOVE FREEZING. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ONFRIDAY...BUT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURESCOOL AGAIN...ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXEDWITH SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OFTHE AREA.MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON ELEVATEDSURFACES GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON...AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROME TO GAINESVILLE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDTEMPERATURES WILL GET...AND HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILLSPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...CAN CAUSE INCONVENIENCES TOTRAVEL. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITORLATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZINGRAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z Hi-Res NAM and 18z OP and 18z GFS and RPM pretty much say a non-event for the CAE area now. Thankfully! Hate ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You had to ask... :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php I should have known better - you have virtually any bit of info I could ask for. You don't have data showing who really shot JFK do you? So it is .25" - it's the same in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I would think those areas would get less ice...and more sleet/snow to not qualify for a winter storm watch. They may be awaiting 0z and to come with an agreement with Blacksburg tonight! maybe just a wwa since it wouldn't be at least 4 inches of snow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Larry as you and Dacula well know, when the CAD sets up in typical areas, Dacula and east sides of Lawrenceville tend to do well. My dad was showing me on a topo map that Old Peachtree Road sits on a ridge and its pretty amazing how ice totals go east of that line. Whenever Gainesville is included I pay attention. Previous Cad events I have seen southern gwinnett be 35 and raining and the trees in Dacula coated with ice. Many times gwinnett is the stopping line. I am hoping that the GFS is under performing the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Larry as you and Dacula well know, when the CAD sets up in typical areas, Dacula and east sides of Lawrenceville tend to do well. My dad was showing me on a topo map that Old Peachtree Road sits on a ridge and its pretty amazing how ice totals go east of that line. Whenever Gainesville is included I pay attention. Previous Cad events I have seen southern gwinnett be 35 and raining and the trees in Dacula coated with ice. Many times gwinnett is the stopping line. I am hoping that the GFS is under performing the qpf. Same here, we do really well in CAD situations... assuming we have any moisture to work with! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT speaketh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT speaketh: I'll take that 2-4 considering last winter and the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 May DT be right, for once......... I would take that in a heartbeat. I'm surprised he didn't extend the 1-2" to DC just to please his base, though, to be honest. And the typo on his map. I just took a look at the text data and it looks like a quick half-inch of snow in GSO followed by a lot of sleet with temperatures in the mid-20s. Very cold. Unfortunately, there was a warm nose in there that I didn't initially see (850s are below 0C). RDU is fairly similar with slightly warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? While the QPF is nearly the same as the rest of the counties in the watch area, it's the type of precip that falls. AVL should start as snow, and make a gradual transition to sleet and then freezing rain at the end. I would expect 1-2" of snow and sleet, followed by 0.1" of freezing rain/drizzle. None of those amounts break the threshold for any kind of watch at this time. I am still thinking "Winter Weather Advisory" for Buncombe on Friday, to capture the range of winter precipitation types, and the current idea that the QPF will be spread out amongst the types and not only freezing rain or snow. I expect the system to go from 8am to 3pm. Buses and schools should have an interesting day! Roads should be awful given the cold dry antecedent conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone have a guess on the timing when all the frozen precip starts, say around Haywood and Buncombe counties, I'm a school bus driver in these areas and was wandering about Friday morning. will it start before 5:30 am or after. this is when we're getting the buses fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 May DT be right, for once......... I would take that in a heartbeat. I'm surprised he didn't extend the 1-2" to DC just to please his base, though, to be honest. And the typo on his map. I just took a look at the text data and it looks like a quick half-inch of snow in GSO followed by a lot of sleet with temperatures in the mid-20s. Very cold. Unfortunately, there was a warm nose in there that I didn't initially see (850s are below 0C). RDU is fairly similar with slightly warmer temps. A big win for us would be an 1" with some sleet....Anything more than that is probably not realistic. Maybe you guys do a little more snow 1-2".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 While the QPF is nearly the same as the rest of the counties in the watch area, it's the type of precip that falls. AVL should start as snow, and make a gradual transition to sleet and then freezing rain at the end. I would expect 1-2" of snow and sleet, followed by 0.1" of freezing rain/drizzle. None of those amounts break the threshold for any kind of watch at this time. I am still thinking "Winter Weather Advisory" for Buncombe on Friday, to capture the range of winter precipitation types, and the current idea that the QPF will be spread out amongst the types and not only freezing rain or snow. I expect the system to go from 8am to 3pm. Buses and schools should have an interesting day! Roads should be awful given the cold dry antecedent conditions. thanks for the answer, say around 8am, thats great we will have just got all the kids to school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For those who want snow to stay on the ground as long as possible, you want a layer of sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WxSouth Even though 1/4" of ice doesn't sound like much, just one quarter of an inch of ice accumulation can add about 500 pounds of weight per power line span. The one region I'm most concerned right now with the most ice could be northern Alabama, southern middle to east TN and northern GA mountains. All models have a maximum zone of moisture accumulating there, and that's a strong sign that region gets the most QPF from this system. Makes sense , since the mountains and downslope or virga won't be nearly the question mark it is in VA, NC, SC regions east of the Apps. The biggest question is how much precip falls BEFORE the temps go above freezing on Friday. For some areas of TN, AL, GA I'm afraid this will still prove to be quite a glazing event, and possibly a few counties in that region get .60" or even .75" of mostly ice. Which would fall into ICE STORM category, but so far it's not shown to be that widespread. A little ice goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 thanks for the answer, say around 8am, thats great we will have just got all the kids to school If this time frame looks like it will verify they will probably start with a 2 or 3 hr delay with no buses on icy roads & go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'd love to have the 2-4 DT says for me...but I'm far from convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 While the QPF is nearly the same as the rest of the counties in the watch area, it's the type of precip that falls. AVL should start as snow, and make a gradual transition to sleet and then freezing rain at the end. I would expect 1-2" of snow and sleet, followed by 0.1" of freezing rain/drizzle. None of those amounts break the threshold for any kind of watch at this time. I am still thinking "Winter Weather Advisory" for Buncombe on Friday, to capture the range of winter precipitation types, and the current idea that the QPF will be spread out amongst the types and not only freezing rain or snow. I expect the system to go from 8am to 3pm. Buses and schools should have an interesting day! Roads should be awful given the cold dry antecedent conditions. thanks for the answer, say around 8am, thats great we will have just got all the kids to school You are welcome. Problem is, what do you do about getting kids back home?? Roads should be nasty even by mid afternoon. And maybe even some power outages if enough ice accumulates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Mid Atlantic Weather shared WxSouth's photo.about an hour ago For Thursday Night Friday - South Folks Eastern TN, and Northern Georgia (Rome-Gainesville Just north of Atlanta) Winter Storm Watches. All models have .25" to .50" amounts of freezing rain and sleet falling in eastern TN, northern GA on Friday, with temps staying below freezing for most of the duration, so this will adhere easily to the roads unfortunately. I'm monitoring more of middle Tennessee and northern Alabama as well, but so far no watches. Those areas actually could have the most moisture with this system, so if it falls early enough before the temps go above freezing, there will be very significant glazing there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'll take that 2-4 considering last winter and the way this winter has gone. Although I'm pulling big time for DT's map, I don't ever remember him getting it right with his maps? I know snowfall accumulations are nearly impossible to get right for everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 well good news for gainesville! David Chandley or maybe it was (glenn burns) @6:00 showed gainesville at 35 during the event friday! Which means we will see some ice reason for this as a kid i would always watch wsb and when either of those to would forecast winter weather it would never verify.. they would forecast no snow(ice etc) i think it's a dead lock for us now if only it's one 1/2 of a sleet pellet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 well good news for gainesville! David Chandley or maybe it was (glenn burns) @6:00 showed gainesville at 35 during the event friday! Which means we will see some ice reason for this as a kid i would always watch wsb and when either of those to would forecast winter weather it would never verify.. they would forecast no snow(ice etc) i think it's a dead lock for us now if only it's one 1/2 of a sleet pellet! The #1 analog event showing up for this is 1/23/00....I don't know what you had there but ATL had roughly 6-7 hours of FZRA at the airport and even when they switched over they never got above 33. The setup appears also that it would have favored precipitation mainly over NRN GA but it developed quite a bit more south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSOWxWizard Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 well good news for gainesville! David Chandley or maybe it was (glenn burns) @6:00 showed gainesville at 35 during the event friday! Which means we will see some ice reason for this as a kid i would always watch wsb and when either of those to would forecast winter weather it would never verify.. they would forecast no snow(ice etc) i think it's a dead lock for us now if only it's one 1/2 of a sleet pellet! Yeah, I loved the article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution this morning. They have edited it now (as WSB caved somewhat), but this morning it was FFC vs. WSB. Karen Minton said they didn't buy the models and had temps in the 50's with rain versus FFC's 30's and ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Although I'm pulling big time for DT's map, I don't ever remember him getting it right with his maps? I know snowfall accumulations are nearly impossible to get right for everyone... http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/740785_471457219568208_651668972_o.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NWS in Raleigh throwing out 20:1 snow ratios for a possible quick 1-2 inches. I never thought we got ratios that high in the SE? Interesting. We sometimes get ratios that high. Certainly not the norm for this area but it does happen. I also noticed they have me in the low 60s starting next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 you can always expect the weather to do the complete opposite of what wsb mets have forecasted. that being said i use to love it as a kid always wanting school canceledIf you think the kids want school cancelled you should see the teachers. I have to admit, since I've retired snow has lost a bit of its excitement for me. I'm off every day now so some of the thrill has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That's what must have happened. GFS ZR projections were then much higher than they are now ATL-AHN corridor. If it's trending like the last chances, all the moisture was up north aways, though I was actually colder down here. They had me under snow then, and had me under sleet and zrain this afternoon. I'm thinking, they're thinking they'll see if any looks like it will make it across the boarder down here. So many of the storms over the last years were north loaded, and we got tenths to inches. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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