Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 850'S retreat north of the VA border on the 18Z GFS...with qpf between .10-.25 for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let me guess, suddenly temperatures may be a problem-surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 in fact...the 18Z GFS has 2M temps too warm except for the favored CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 According to that image on the NWS site, the I-20 corridor will be the most impacted. Which I know can change. It just doesn't correlate with the WSW. The timestamp on that map is from 6AM this morning. The models have backed off a good bit since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Will go ahead and post. Wanted to wait until 0z but anyway...current thoughts/forecast below. Purple 1-3 inches of snow Blue up to 1inch of snow Pink...snowflakes to sleet...little to no accumuation Red...freezing rain south-west in north GA...freezing drizzle concerns north-east for many Orange...wild card for the heaviest precip to eek out something greater than the rest. Black...relative min. The possible virga never reaching the ground but possible nearby. Wild card and virga sections both included...wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let me guess, suddenly temperatures may be a problem-surprise! If you hug the GFS, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hmm that's strange it takes the vort on the 500 at 18z from se Wisconsin to northwest Ohio and into central pa and looks like it attempts to phase with the southern low off the jersey coast a little too late for the northeast but you can see where the difference is vs the 12z where it took the vort over Illinois and then swings it right through Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8fuldawg95 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The timestamp on that map is from 6AM this morning. The models have backed off a good bit since then. It is no longer on the site It has been replaced with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 gr8fuldawg95 - Unless the potential ice totals reach .25" for those areas south, they likely won't issue a WSW. Although, it may be different for GA. Who knows the criteria for a WSW for ice in GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8fuldawg95 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 gr8fuldawg95 - Unless the potential ice totals reach .25" for those areas south, they likely won't issue a WSW. Although, it may be different for GA. Who knows the criteria for a WSW for ice in GA? Possibly. I am not sure. The WSW says accumulations from .1-.25" in the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Possibly. I am not sure. The WSW says accumulations from .1-.25" in the watch area. I would imagine it's that potential of .25" that did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Possibly. I am not sure. The WSW says accumulations from .1-.25" in the watch area.[/quote. 0.10" of modeled ZR isn't even showing up in the ATL-Athens corridor. No need for a watch there or south. 18z GFS agrees with recent less threatening trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Possibly. I am not sure. The WSW says accumulations from .1-.25" in the watch area.[/quote.0.10" of modeled ZR isn't even showing up in the ATL-Athens corridor. No need for a watch there or south. 18z GFS agrees with recent less threatening trend. The 18Z RGEM Still unchanged, likes showing that area over NRN GA from 09-12Z and then 12-15Z....hard to say if its over ATL but it looks notably south of the NAM/GFS...this model is easily one of my favorites to use inside 36...its even picking up the sleet chances over NRN GA as some of the fcst soundings argue for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSOWxWizard Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Guess we can't get a good ice storm down in Gwinnett anymore. Seems like when I was a kid they happened all the time. Think that this trend started once the energy associated with the northern stream s/w started getting better sampled as it moved ashore. I think, unless something drastic changes we are going to have a hard time seeing the trends of further north and less QPF in the Atlanta/Athens area being reversed. Going to stink if we just get enough FZRA down here to make the roads a disaster driving into work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 15z SREF members look much better than the GFS/NAM for north ga and Upstate SC. The majority of them have the axis of heaviest totals running through our region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTSE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 gr8fuldawg95 - Unless the potential ice totals reach .25" for those areas south, they likely won't issue a WSW. Although, it may be different for GA. Who knows the criteria for a WSW for ice in GA? You had to ask... :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18Z RGEM Still unchanged, likes showing that area over NRN GA from 09-12Z and then 12-15Z....hard to say if its over ATL but it looks notably south of the NAM/GFS...this model is easily one of my favorites to use inside 36...its even picking up the sleet chances over NRN GA as some of the fcst soundings argue for. Snowgoose, 1) The southern part of that pink area in that 18z RGEM, indeed, does get down to Atlanta. 2) How much QPF is that? Also, how much ZR after 12z Friday on that run? It may not even be .10"+. 3) In this area, I've noticed a bias of the Canadian being too far south with wintry precip. areas. With it being further south than just about all other models and with the less threatening trend of the last four GFS runs, I personally see no reason to favor it. But even if it verified verbatim, I don't know that that ZR qpf is even at .10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 18Z RGEM Still unchanged, likes showing that area over NRN GA from 09-12Z and then 12-15Z....hard to say if its over ATL but it looks notably south of the NAM/GFS...this model is easily one of my favorites to use inside 36...its even picking up the sleet chances over NRN GA as some of the fcst soundings argue for. Those HiRes models really have to be watched as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You had to ask... :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/spotter_criteria.php YOUR SITE IS THE BEST. I have this one and yours bookmarked... if I cannot find the data / information on one of those, I don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hoping that FAY can finally get in on some of this, but once again it looks like we're right on the line. I am located about 42 miles WNW of FAY...hoping we get some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro/GFS look to me like a widespread inch with a bit of sleet/freezing drizzle on top in NC. Enough to make roads horrible Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i was surprised to see the winter storm watches up when i got home and started checking things out. hopefully we will start to see the radar light up and move this way as the storm starts. CADs are odd events sometimes in ne ga and the upstate, and once the cold air gets entrenched with freezing rain it can be hard to get it to go above freezing unless it starts just below adn then warms up quickly. since it has been so long since we have had a real cad event, its hard to remember the details at this point lol. at least its more to watch than we had all last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hoping that FAY can finally get in on some of this, but once again it looks like we're right on the line. I am located about 42 miles WNW of FAY...hoping we get some Howdy arwx! We're up here near Lillington, watching as our numbers dance on the razor as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've seen a lot of CAD events where the forecast says it will warm to 35 or 36 degrees,and they never make it past 31 or 32.the perfect scenario for those wanting winter precip in the upstate,would be for Thu night to be clear until about 5 or 6 am to allow max radiational cooling.then have cloud and moisture arrive about 8 or 9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think its because precip is suppose to be more south,or won't be enough for wsw criteria up that way? does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? Just be patient they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 does anyone know why the northern mtns. as well as Buncombe county is not in on the wsw in NC? QPF amounts are not as high. Buncombe is notoriously drier on systems that move in from the west. Again, to get any real snowfall here we need a Miller A from the south. I expect a few flurries on Friday, followed by just a bit of frozen precip, but it shouldn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think its because precip is suppose to be more south,or won't be enough for wsw criteria up that way? oh ok I didn't realize that the whole area wasn't getting some form of wintry weather and about the same amount. I did see where there is a HWO posted for those counties in the central and northern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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