1234snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 MRX has issued a WSW for all of East Tennessee. Playing catch up from the last system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They are going up everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 404 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-242115- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- 404 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR A THIN GLAZE OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 dynamic_overview23113_geos5.png dynamic_overview23113_geos5_ii.png The Nasa-goddard climate simulation seems to show a lot of precipitation. I don't know that NWS uses it officially forecastwise but I'm sure they look at it! Later, other models may reflect this trend. You just blew my mind. I never heard of the Nasa model. It's from space so it must be AWESOME! If I'm reading that right it's indeed dropping .5 inches or so. .5 inches of snow/sleet/freezing rain I would assume would somehow merit a WSW. I'm confused again. NAM and NASA say WSW. Everybody else says flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I see them going up, but I am hearing (on here) that in Cherokee County, at least, it will be a no-go (likely)... Models don't seem to be holding up like they used to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 FFC has all areas north of ATL under WSW now. What is confusing to me is how they don't include places further south and east like Athens for example. Wouldn't they be at or below freezing all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What is confusing to me is how they don't include places further south and east like Athens for example. Wouldn't they be at or below freezing all day? I would think it's likely a qpf issue getting that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think they will mark the most promising areas first, then wait and see how this starts to pan out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 FFC has all areas north of ATL under WSW now. I think this is reasonable considering that the GFS is still giving places like Gainseville 0.25" of ZR. Just to clarify for others, this WSW is well north of the city of Atlanta ....north of line from Rome to Gainseville. That line is about 50 miles north of downtown atl. Had what was seen in the more robust earlier GFS runs still been in the 12z GFS, I would have had Atlanta, proper, at the southern boundary of the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nevermind, they just changed it: wa, wa, wa.... Friday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all freezing rain after 4pm. High near 33. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night Freezing rain likely before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. That was weird. So much for NASA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Btw for people who care about recon stuff... I emailed the guy over at http://tropicalatlantic.com/ to turn back on the pacific google earth plugin since recons were flying the other day, he has it up now and it's located here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/ the direct plugin link is here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/live/ NON-TASKED missions are here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/archive/nontasked.cgi?year=2013 updates every 5 minutes! enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 MRX AFD hot off the press..... MID TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OFTHE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREALATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FRIDAYNIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH THEBIGGEST QUESTION BEING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE DURATION FOR AGIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITHTIMING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BTWN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.75INCHES GENERALLY FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40CORRIDOR. THE PEAK TIME FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN12-21Z ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WESTTO EAST. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THIS TIMEPERIOD AS A RESULT.ATTM...MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KCHA AND KTYS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TRENDOF PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A VERY PRONOUNCEDWARM NOSE /WITH 5000 FT TEMPS WARMING TO 3-6 DEGREES CELCIUS/. THISIS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION FREEZING RAIN EVENTFOR THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ZONES AND A SLEET/FREEZING RAINEVENT FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ZONES. THIS WOULDRESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASWIDESPREAD 0.10-0.15 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED AND THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERAL POCKETS APPROACHING A QUARTER OF INCH ACROSS THE CENTRALTENNESSEE VALLEY. ACROSS FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTVIRGINIA...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE REMAINS ATOR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...SUGGESTING AN ALL-SNOW TO ASNOW-SLEET MIXTURE FOR THESE AREAS...WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONSBEING BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES...GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OFMORRISTOWN.THE ONE UNCERTAINTY AS ALWAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMING WILL TAKEPLACE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ANDPRECIPITATION...AM NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS MUCH AS MOSVALUES ARE SHOWING...PARTICULARLY IF A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTSDOWN THE VALLEY /SOMETHING THAT MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE WITHIDENTIFYING/. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE COLDER AIR BEING MUCH SLOWERTO ERODE FROM THE VALLEYS EVEN IF WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE SOUNDING PROFILES...ESPECIALLY THENAM WHICH SUGGESTS WINTERY PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THEENTIRE EVENT IN NEARLY ALL AREAS. GIVEN THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTERSTORM WATCH FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT AS THE FORECAST SUGGESTS...THIS RAREAND SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WOULD RESULT IN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.IT CANNOT BE UNDERSCORED ENOUGH THAT RESIDENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIAN REGION SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM SYSTEMCLOSELY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ONFRIDAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think this is reasonable considering that the GFS is still giving places like Gainseville 0.25" of ZR. Just to clarify for others, this WSW is well north of the city of Atlanta ....north of line from Rome to Gainseville. That line is about 50 miles north of downtown atl. Well... if you look at that map... the county next door to me is under that Watch, Forsyth and Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I see them going up, but I am hearing (on here) that in Cherokee County, at least, it will be a no-go (likely)... Models don't seem to be holding up like they used to... Would that be Cherokee Co. Ga? Can't see where you're from and some states share co. names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I would think it's likely a qpf issue getting that far. That is probably what it is. Of course by tomorrow that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Btw for people who care about recon stuff... I emailed the guy over at http://tropicalatlantic.com/ to turn back on the pacific google earth plugin since recons were flying the other day, he has it up now and it's located here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/ the direct plugin link is here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/live/ NON-TASKED missions are here: http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/archive/nontasked.cgi?year=2013 updates every 5 minutes! enjoy! Thanks, when I got the radiosonde report from there today, it wasn't tracking. That's good news, thanks Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What is confusing to me is how they don't include places further south and east like Athens for example. Wouldn't they be at or below freezing all day? I think it's pretty much driven by where the QPF is going to be. Lower QPF or delayed QPF = no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think they will mark the most promising areas first, then wait and see how this starts to pan out, Not in the time frame for winter weather advisories...maybe tomorrow. Further north... Snowfall criteria will be tough to come by...even more hard in Wilkes with a slightly higher criteria than the Piedmont now. SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-416 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY...MAINLYDURING THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well... if you look at that map... the county next door to me is under that Watch, Forsyth and Hall. I know, but they said it was north of the line from Rome to Gainseville. I guess the southern part of any county along that line technically gets included since they apparently don't break up most counties. That line, itself, is nearly 50 miles north of downtown. Looking at latest models, they do keep any 0.25"+ of ZR about 50+ miles north. So, it looks very reasonable to have the line there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thanks, when I got the radiosonde report from there today, it wasn't tracking. That's good news, thanks Jon! Yep, no prob. He got back to me within a couple of hours and said he'd get it up and running...probably the most efficient customer service I've ever seen, it was great. Very nice of him to do that on request from a stranger, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8fuldawg95 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I guess the watch for the areas south of the ATL will come later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I guess the watch for the areas south of the ATL will come later? or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 or not at all. Don't want to be on the southern edge this far out...or ever really. They are probably waiting before including a big city like Atlanta...weather channel will have it named in a instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I guess the watch for the areas south of the ATL will come later? It may not ever come there unless trends change. Not enough ZR being projected there as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 MRX has issued a WSW for all of East Tennessee. Playing catch up from the last system? I think it's a great call actually. After looking at things closer it's easy to see their concern. Even if the temperatures warm in the upper layers, surface temps should be in the mid 20s. Even if only a tenth actually makes it to the ground it would be like a skating rink on Friday. With the NAM and other models showing .25-.5 or more in east TN it just makes sense for the WSW to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I guess the watch for the areas south of the ATL will come later? I saw that posted on their site and was wondering that too. I guess the QPF totals changed after they posted it since they trended lower. Hopefully that will change by tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z slightly warmer and slightly north for the GFS....seems to be the trend to day. It will be interesting to see 00z and 12z tomorrow as this energy get's sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8fuldawg95 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 or not at all. According to that image on the NWS site, the I-20 corridor will be the most impacted. Which I know can change. It just doesn't correlate with the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would that be Cherokee Co. Ga? Can't see where you're from and some states share co. names. Yep - Cherokee County, GA... I am a little north of Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I saw that posted on their site and was wondering that too. I guess the QPF totals changed after they posted it since they trended lower. Hopefully that will change by tonight and tomorrow. That's what must have happened. GFS ZR projections were then much higher than they are now ATL-AHN corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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