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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread

Marion_NC_WX

By Marion_NC_WX,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

I don't know how the Euro does down there but its horrid in the NE with temps...always too warm at the surface with wintry events, especially onces that are marginal, its resolution may not pick up the CAD in NE GA.

Appreciate the input.  I'm impressed with this air mass.  GFS shows a temp of 34 with a dewpoint of 8 at midday Friday (1PM) in Charlotte.  GFS MOS is similar.  Although surface winds are out of the SE, they are light.  I think the cold will be there (tho I questioned it a few days ago), but light with the precip.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

My first outlook map. Again complicated scenario so confidence is low in east TN/NW SC/N Ga/SW NC.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/discussion-of-winter-weather-event-for-friday

Thanks Allen, I think a couple of inches of snow would be nice this time around. Frozen ground would allow the kids to be able to play in it more. Got 2 inches with the last event but it was basically snow on top of mud.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

My first outlook map. Again complicated scenario so confidence is low in east TN/NW SC/N Ga/SW NC.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/discussion-of-winter-weather-event-for-friday

 

Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts, Allan.  Are you not worried about a relative minimum showing up once again in the lee of the Apps, as it did last week?  I know traditionally-speaking, when systems come from the west, the mountains tend to wring out all the moisture so that the foothills/NW piedmont see very little precipitation of any kind.  Or do you think the low will travel far enough south that this will not be a problem?

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

My first outlook map. Again complicated scenario so confidence is low in east TN/NW SC/N Ga/SW NC.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/discussion-of-winter-weather-event-for-friday

Good write-up Allan...particularly this, "The problem lies in the fact that arctic air is currently in place ahead of it across the eastern US, and this system will not be strong enough to scour that cold air out. In fact a strong cold high pressure will depart to the east during the day on Friday but as the clouds/precipitation moves in a wedge of cold air will set up east of the mountains and prevent a rapid warm-up, and a pool of cold air will be in place for this quick-hitting light to moderate event."

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

15z SREF mean is a lot wetter than the previous run. Good signs...

 

New run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p12&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_057_precip_p12.gif

 

Old run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p12&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p12.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

This feels like one of those situations where a lot of us are going to be looking up at the sky, impatiently waiting for something to fall and not really see all that much, especially in NC and SC east of the Apps. I'd feel a heckuvalot better if we see some southward trend in the vort. That needs to happen pronto.

QPF is already meager and it won't take much to really kill it completely. I'm not sure if there is anything synoptically we can hope for that will cause the wave to dig more. Maybe there's still a sampling issue, but you would think that would be resolved soon...if not already.

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts, Allan.  Are you not worried about a relative minimum showing up once again in the lee of the Apps, as it did last week?  I know traditionally-speaking, when systems come from the west, the mountains tend to wring out all the moisture so that the foothills/NW piedmont see very little precipitation of any kind.  Or do you think the low will travel far enough south that this will not be a problem?

 

It is a little different scenario this time around as this is more of a southwest flow warm advection type event as opposed to an energy transfer.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

 

SREF mean also appears to be mainly snow for NC with IP/ZR for upstate. 

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

This feels like one of those situations where a lot of us are going to be looking up at the sky, impatiently waiting for something to fall and not really see all that much, especially in NC and SC east of the Apps. I'd feel a heckuvalot better if we see some southward trend in the vort. That needs to happen pronto.

QPF is already meager and it won't take much to really kill it completely. I'm not sure if there is anything synoptically we can hope for that will cause the wave to dig more. Maybe there's still a sampling issue, but you would think that would be resolved soon...if not already.

 

I have to agree. It's kind of difficult to get excited about .10-.20 qpf forecasts at this range. I am pretty much going to reserve judgment on what to expect in MBY until now cast time...unless we see a significant change in the modeling.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

 

Good stuff! :)

 

Guys, the 18z NAM is off and running.  Let's wish ourselves some good luck!  :santa:

 

I don't see much difference through hr 12.

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

part of RAH's afternoon discussion explains our problem well:

 

MODEL TRENDS:MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WAVE(S)OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THEFRONT AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLYBACKED OFF WITH LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA...WITH AMODEL AVERAGE OF A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOREIMPORTANTLY...AN INCREASING NUMBER OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ANDINDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY SHALLOWSATURATION...DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES FEED BYA H8 40 TO 50KT SWLY LLJ. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OFSHOWERY/CONVECTIVE LIKE PRECIP PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREADSTRATIFORM RAIN. FURTHERMORE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BEINGENTIRELY COMPOSED OF ICE CRYSTALS IS LOW AND/OR VERY BRIEF(2 TO 3HOUR WINDOW)...WITH FORECAST  SOUNDINGS... PARTICULARLY THE GFS ANDEC...QUICKLY DRYING OUT THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER...STRONGLYSUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS WOULD BE COMPOSED OF MOSTLY SUPERCOOLEDDROPLETS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS ANDDURATION IN WHICH WE WOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET ...WITHPERHAPS MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCRUAL AS PRECIP TYPE QUICKLYCHANGES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORETAPERING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z FRIDAY EVENING.
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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

I don't know how the Euro does down there but its horrid in the NE with temps...always too warm at the surface with wintry events, especially onces that are marginal, its resolution may not pick up the CAD in NE GA.

 

EURO is usually pretty bad when it comes to 2m temps in wedges down here.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Want to make sure I understand this -- how does the separation of the vortexes affect track?

 

 

If you are wondering why the Euro was just a tick further north, here's why. Look at the Plains vorts..... they are more separated....less interaction until later on the 0z run.

attachicon.gif0z Euro.png

 

The energy consolidates a bit soon on the 12z and thus everything end up a little farther north.

attachicon.gif12z Euro.png

 

As for these precip amounts, you have to be very careful in assigning 'trends' of this and that. We are quibbling over the differences in hundredths or at most tenths of an inch in most instances (I know it's more in some instances), and that is sort of within the 'noise' range of a 48 hour prog. 

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

NWS  in Raleigh throwing out 20:1 snow ratios for a possible quick 1-2 inches.  I never thought we got ratios that high in the SE?

 

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETREATING THE FREEZING SFC
WET-BULB ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WADESBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO
GOLDSBORO FROM AFOREMENTIONED WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
AS SUCH THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
LINE...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 64.
DESPITE THE LOW LIQUID AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN HIGH...20:1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO....WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ADJACENT VIRGINA BORDER
COUNTIES. IT ALSO SERVES TO MENTION THAT WHILE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PROHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SNOW ACCUMULATION LINE...THERE WILL  BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF ICE ACCRUAL FROM FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
...WITH AS MUCH AS A TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECT
OF THIS EVENT AND THUS WILL NEED TO BE GENEROUS IN THE ATTEMPT TO
PREDICT THIS EXACT SWATH. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE NORTH
THAT COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT ICE GLAZE ON TOP OF THE 1 TO 2 INCH
SNOWFALL. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TREACHEROUS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

 

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Want to make sure I understand this -- how does the separation of the vortexes affect track?

Because they phase, so to speak, on the 12z with the northern piece being the more dominant feature....it sort of pulls the southern feature in. So the whole system is just a touch (at the upper levels) farther north.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Here is the latest RPM run...put pics up on our FB page....not much.....and more than likely wrong.

 

https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert

Of course, 48-72 hours prior to our last event, the RPM didn't even have a drop of rain in the western Carolinas..... nevermind that 2+" soaking before any wintry precip.

 

I remember because it was totally unusable on air for me at that point....

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Will go ahead and post. Wanted to wait until 0z but anyway...current thoughts/forecast below.

 

Purple 1-3 inches of snow

Blue up to 1inch of snow

Pink...snowflakes to sleet...little to no accumuation

Red...freezing rain south-west in north GA...freezing drizzle concerns north-east for many

Orange...wild card for the heaviest precip to eek out something greater than the rest. 

Black...relative min. The possible virga never reaching the ground but possible nearby.

 

379266_395487700544230_1892756263_n.jpg

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