packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Guess I jumped the gun a little bit guys sorry about that. Just frustrated this winter. Looking at the EURO def. agree with Burger and NCSnow not as bad at first glance. Would def. prefer a more southern colder track. Well you were right in one aspect, the GFS seems to be the correct model, if you ignore CMC/NoGaps. Pretty amazing, if this hold the GFS has been kicking the Euro's butt inside 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 AVL? 0.24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For N GA, the 12Z Euro is sig. colder at both 850 and 2 meters (~8 F colder at 2 M in many cases). It is also a bit drier. This colder/drier is consistent with W 500 mb flow vs. the WSW of the 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wondering about the timing. When does it move into the piedmont of NC? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wondering about the timing. When does it move into the piedmont of NC? TW Per the Euro it's perfect timing. Moves in between 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Can someone please describe EURO QPF from ATL northward in GA? Thanks! Check your PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All snow below, unless noted. RDU - 0.3" RWI - 0.34" INT - 0.24" GSO - 0.25" HKY - 0.20" CLT - 0.21" ( looks like would mix some some, all frozen though) Since I don't have access to euro QPF, what's it looking for ROA, DAN, LYH, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 what is the track of the LP on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So, did the last Euro show any ice at all for RDU or was it all snow? The question was already answered. NO, NO ICE, ALL SNOW. STOP IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DT saying on FB that eastern TN is in the (up to .5) on the Euro. Can someone confirm KTYS and KTRI qpf on the 12z Euro? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Since I don't have access to euro QPF, what's it looking for ROA, DAN, LYH, etc.? All roughly 0.25" (0.25-0.27). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wondering about the timing. When does it move into the piedmont of NC? TW Early to mid afternoon, through the coastal plain around 10pm. Verbatim, >80% of NC does not get above freezing on Friday, not sure I buy that. Amounts look to be a couple to maybe 3/10"s of an inch for most everyone in the state, a few 0.375-0.5" totals se portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DT saying on FB that eastern TN is in the (up to .5) on the Euro. Can someone confirm KTYS and KTRI qpf on the 12z Euro? TIA Roughly 0.42", TRI is all snow, TYS is close, the surface temps warm just above freezing, 850's are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Grrr! Looks like us Sandhill folks are left at the altar again ... unless the south trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DT saying on FB that eastern TN is in the (up to .5) on the Euro. Can someone confirm KTYS and KTRI qpf on the 12z Euro? TIA I look forward to his clown map on this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DT saying on FB that eastern TN is in the (up to .5) on the Euro. Can someone confirm KTYS and KTRI qpf on the 12z Euro? TIA Allan Huffman @RaleighWx NE TN. 3-4 for rest of east TN, NC mountains, NE NC/SE Va. 2-3 NC foothills/piedmontcentral Va, NE Ga, upstate SC. 1-2 just south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z ECMWF snowfall accumulation maps per Wunderground. The amounts are definitely a little lower than the 00Z run. However, if the air is as dry as forecasted, snowfall ratios might be higher than traditional 10:1 estimates. Hour 78 Hour 81 Hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, check that .... if I'm reading the sounding for KFAY Friday evening, looks like possibly an eighth-inch ZR. could someone with more expertise take a quick gander, please?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Roughly 0.42", TRI is all snow, TYS is close, the surface temps warm just above freezing, 850's are good. Much appreciated............ It would be nice to see if it can "juice" up a little more and NOT get lesser and lesser the further east you go as depicted by the Euro @ 12z. I am rooting for you east of the apps guys/gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx NE TN. 3-4 for rest of east TN, NC mountains, NE NC/SE Va. 2-3 NC foothills/piedmontcentral Va, NE Ga, upstate SC. 1-2 just south of there. Much appreciated Don, thanks for posting that. Good luck to you guys with this one. I hope it trends a bit more "juicy" for you guys east of the apps. It looks like a decent track at the least. Maybe qpf can bump a tenth or two in future runs. That would be quite a mess for some on your side of the "hill" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OK...I like those raw QPF numbers people are posting from the EURO. What does it show for ATL and GVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Although the qpf is not very impressive with this event, the cold before and after, means especially where the precip falls with temps at or below freezing, it will accumulate and will stick around a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 When qpf is spit out, does it take into account moistening up the column or should any amounts spit out by modeling be reduced to account for "virga"? I can't remember the answer to this, but I know it has been discussed over the last year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've found the wunderground version of the euro to be pretty accurate qpf-wise. If you need a number, just tally the frames. That said - looks like a frz rain to snow event for BNA. maybe 1-2 inches. If you're in TN, and you're north and east of a Chattanooga to Clarksville line (basically I24) you should do well. The valley may have some issues with downsloping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just like the last event, remember, we have plenty of time for this thing to trend further south and juicier...like the majority of the systems we have had this winter, models have greatly under predicted the QPF at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 When qpf is spit out, does it take into account moistening up the column or should any amounts spit out by modeling be reduced to account for "virga"? I can't remember the answer to this, but I know it has been discussed over the last year or two. From my understanding it only takes into account what is in the atmosphere and could fall. All QPF numbers should as always be taken with a grain of salt as it could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just like the last event, remember, we have plenty of time for this thing to trend further south and juicier...like the majority of the systems we have had this winter, models have greatly under predicted the QPF at this time frame I wonder if this could be the case when the energy to create this storm gets to the West Coast and is sampled well in the models like WxSouth/Foothills mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've found the wunderground version of the euro to be pretty accurate qpf-wise. If you need a number, just tally the frames. That said - looks like a frz rain to snow event for BNA. maybe 1-2 inches. If you're in TN, and you're north and east of a Chattanooga to Clarksville line (basically I24) you should do well. The valley may have some issues with downsloping though. Question is , is Nashville going to be too far Southwest. Sumner county looks to be a good spot if you are wanting to stay in Middle Tennessee, North of I-40 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I guess the operational EURO's QPF agrees with the GFS Ensemble Mean QPF...it will be interesting to see what the ECMWF ensembles show as far as QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Would that little bit of QPF (<.25) not mostly evaporate in this cold dry airmass? I would think it would have to get a lot juicier to get an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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