deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 RPM has some wintry junk cruising through southern middle TN, North and central AL...and then moves that into GA...then as its leaving into SC......it goes poof....NADA for NC *except some snow for the high country* Again, its out there on its own with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM and GFS come in wetter, Euro comes back drier. Go figure. Don't worry, still have the jma on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes and yes on both counts. Battle of the NAM vs. everyone else...wonder who wins? The GFS did come in a little wetter at 12Z; so you could say the American models Vs the Euro. I think we all know this is going to be a light event. But, these types of systems can over (..and under) perform more than the models depict. We're going to have to wait for the actual radar returns. **if it under performs not much is lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 welp, from our friend DT...don't shoot the messenger: *** COMMENTS ON 12Z JAN 23 EURO ...FOR JAN 25 ***12Z EURO HOLDS COURSE... shows two 6 hours periods of snow over OH WVA VA MD DEL northern NC ...southern PA and S NJ... the MODEL shows 0.10 to 0.25" in the 6 hour periods.... which is like 1-2 or maybe 1-3" of snow.Over WVA and sw VA ... from ROA west the total liquid is 0.25 to 0.50" would be like 3-6 or 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 welp, from our friend DT...don't shoot the messenger: *** COMMENTS ON 12Z JAN 23 EURO ...FOR JAN 25 *** 12Z EURO HOLDS COURSE... shows two 6 hours periods of snow over OH WVA VA MD DEL northern NC ...southern PA and S NJ... the MODEL shows 0.10 to 0.25" in the 6 hour periods.... which is like 1-2 or maybe 1-3" of snow. Over WVA and sw VA ... from ROA west the total liquid is 0.25 to 0.50" would be like 3-6 or 4-8" EURO saying 0.25'' to 0.50 for ROA? Gonna be another mountain special perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What's your thoughts on the freezing rain end of this for the Mnts? It seems like CAD events have a hard time with zr once you get away from the escarpment. Model soundings from both the NAM and GFS suggest the AVL valleys will be sub-freezing all day on Friday, rising to near 32F by 6pm. We start cold and dry, and the CAD seems to want to supply a nice fetch of cold dry air, keeping the lower BL nice and cold. Meanwhile, a pronounced warm nose develops between 850-700, so I believe we start as snow, then as the warm nose deepens, we transition to either sleet or freezing rain (depends just how deep that nose gets). But, regardless of what happens at 850-700, the surface is below freezing the entire time. This doesn't seem to be your typical escarpment-only event. The temps aren't marginal like they usually are. In fact, Thursday morning's quick cold frontal passage will usher in more cold and dry air on very brisk northwesterly winds. This sets the stage for a frigid evening Thursday night and Friday morning areawide. QPF amounts are light. I believe the first half will be snow (maybe .25" liquid equivalent), and the rest (.10") is ZR or PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The GFS and NAM throw us a bone and then the Doctor pulls back. Meh. The Doc still looks okay here, though, I suppose. The JMA looks good. I am a bit concerned being on the east side of the mountains for this one. Though I'm not in the foothills, the western Piedmont can still get in on a little screw action here if we aren't careful. Does anyone know what kind of snowfall ratios we should be expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well all models are showing precip anywhere from 0.15"-0.30" across central NC in the form of snow/IP for the most part, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well all models are showing precip anywhere from 0.15"-0.30" across central NC in the form of snow/IP for the most part, not bad. I would not be surprised if we had a repeat of the half inch of snow that paralyzed Raleigh a couple of years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When it says .15 to .25, does it mean less than 1/4 inch of snow (or whatever), like dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I would not be surprised if we had a repeat of the half inch of snow that paralyzed Raleigh a couple of years back. If this comes to fruition, I would bet the precip will be somewhat bandy and someone may get 0.25-0.3" of precip while someone 50 miles away gets hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well all models are showing precip anywhere from 0.15"-0.30" across central NC in the form of snow/IP for the most part, not bad. 1-3 inches of snow and sleet. I'll take it!! figuring a little higher snow ratio than 10:1 of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm crying with you. We got shafted on last weeks storm too !!! This is a different type of scenario IMO. I see a better chance of a "massive" qpf shadow east of the mountains...the moisture will be hitting the mountains and the low levels will be extremely dry here. Not your typical foothill shadow...more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When it says .15 to .25, does it mean less than 1/4 inch of snow (or whatever), like dusting? No, this means that if an area got 0.15-0.25" of precip it may translate into 1-2" of snow or 1" of snow and some ice or 0.2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is a different type of scenario IMO. I see a better chance of a "massive" qpf shadow east of the mountains...the moisture will be hitting the mountains and the low levels will be extremely dry here. Not your typical foothill shadow...more widespread. It's not a QPF shadow...you ended up with more liquid with that last storm than most of it. The "shadow" was due to warmer air because of winds in your location. Do you even soak in anything you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does anyone know what kind of snowfall ratios we should be expecting? 1-3 inches of snow and sleet. I'll take it!! figuring a little higher snow ratio than 10:1 of course... My opinion, but I'd go with standard 10:1 here given that the mid levels are warming. You like to see a very cold column to get the higher end ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't worry, still have the jma on board. Does the JMA ever verify above the Mendoza line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 When it says .15 to .25, does it mean less than 1/4 inch of snow (or whatever), like dusting? Not necessarily. Depends on where you're located and it falls as rain or snow/ice. If 0.25" falls as snow, you're looking at maybe 2-3 inches if the ratios are high. If it's rain, then it's just what it says. (0.25") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does the JMA ever verify above the Mendoza line? While not terrible, it usually does not "sniff" out a storm. I've seen it nail maybe 1 or 2 storms over the winter when others didn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's not a QPF shadow...you ended up with more liquid with that last storm than most of it. The "shadow" was due to warmer air because of winds in your location. Do you even soak in anything you read? I believe the mountains will actually do us harm in this type of scenario...in regards to precip. Different direction and much colder surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Man... it sure is quiet up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anybody glanced at the 12z hi-res 4km NAM? Doesn't look good for northern GA with .5-.75" QPF and temps never get above freezing. And those of you throwing out the NAM: you do recall we threw it out last week until the GFS and eventually Euro came around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anybody glanced at the 12z hi-res 4km NAM? Doesn't look good for northern GA with .5-.75" QPF and temps never get above freezing. And those of you throwing out the NAM: you do recall we threw it out last week until the GFS and eventually Euro came around. Yep we remember it well because it ended up looking more like the GFS and Euro by the time it was over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Model soundings from both the NAM and GFS suggest the AVL valleys will be sub-freezing all day on Friday, rising to near 32F by 6pm. We start cold and dry, and the CAD seems to want to supply a nice fetch of cold dry air, keeping the lower BL nice and cold. Meanwhile, a pronounced warm nose develops between 850-700, so I believe we start as snow, then as the warm nose deepens, we transition to either sleet or freezing rain (depends just how deep that nose gets). But, regardless of what happens at 850-700, the surface is below freezing the entire time. This doesn't seem to be your typical escarpment-only event. The temps aren't marginal like they usually are. In fact, Thursday morning's quick cold frontal passage will usher in more cold and dry air on very brisk northwesterly winds. This sets the stage for a frigid evening Thursday night and Friday morning areawide. QPF amounts are light. I believe the first half will be snow (maybe .25" liquid equivalent), and the rest (.10") is ZR or PL. I was just looking at the atmospheric profile for Asheville at hour 54 and was a bit surprised to see how large a warm nose was being shown on the GFS. I was figuring you guys would have more of a sleet profile like we may have along the escarpment. Anyway, what the GFS shows definitely is a freezing rain scenario and with temps down in the mid to upper 20's at the onset, anything that falls will immediately stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anybody glanced at the 12z hi-res 4km NAM? Doesn't look good for northern GA with .5-.75" QPF and temps never get above freezing. And those of you throwing out the NAM: you do recall we threw it out last week until the GFS and eventually Euro came around. Yeah...following the NAM last week ultimately led to another Met and myself trying to make the best out of a bust by shouting bigfoot calls into Saluda. It reminded me why I don't pay attention to it at this point of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If you are wondering why the Euro was just a tick further north, here's why. Look at the Plains vorts..... they are more separated....less interaction until later on the 0z run. The energy consolidates a bit soon on the 12z and thus everything end up a little farther north. As for these precip amounts, you have to be very careful in assigning 'trends' of this and that. We are quibbling over the differences in hundredths or at most tenths of an inch in most instances (I know it's more in some instances), and that is sort of within the 'noise' range of a 48 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 17:09Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306) Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Identifier: 130123154019306 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number) Date Mission Started: January 23rd in '13 Time Mission Started: 15:40:19Z Observation Number: 04 Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 23rd day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb Coordinates: 28.4N 86.9W Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the S (172°) from Pensacola, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 (About) Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1028mb (30.36 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 17.2°C (63.0°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F) 45° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph) 1000mb 238m (781 ft) 14.8°C (58.6°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F) 45° (from the NE) 13 knots (15 mph) 925mb 891m (2,923 ft) 9.2°C (48.6°F) Approximately 4°C (39°F) 35° (from the NE) 13 knots (15 mph) 850mb 1,589m (5,213 ft) 7.0°C (44.6°F) Approximately -8°C (18°F) 50° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph) 700mb 3,170m (10,400 ft) 2.0°C (35.6°F) Approximately -27°C (-17°F) 310° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 500mb 5,810m (19,062 ft) -13.7°C (7.3°F) Approximately -45°C (-49°F) 305° (from the NW) 16 knots (18 mph) 400mb 7,460m (24,475 ft) -26.7°C (-16.1°F) Approximately -60°C (-76°F) 250° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 16:47Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 28.36N 86.86W Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 16:47:03Z Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 28.34N 86.84W Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 16:57:14Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 320° (from the NW) - Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 398mb to 1028mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 07489 Part B: Data For Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels... Level Air Temperature Dew Point 1028mb (Surface) 17.2°C (63.0°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F) 936mb 9.6°C (49.3°F) 6.6°C (43.9°F) 911mb 9.4°C (48.9°F) Approximately -4°C (25°F) 895mb 8.8°C (47.8°F) Approximately -8°C (18°F) 863mb 7.4°C (45.3°F) Approximately -3°C (27°F) 850mb 7.0°C (44.6°F) Approximately -8°C (18°F) 829mb 6.4°C (43.5°F) Approximately -17°C (1°F) 756mb 5.4°C (41.7°F) Approximately -29°C (-20°F) 677mb 0.4°C (32.7°F) Approximately -20°C (-4°F) 599mb -3.9°C (25.0°F) Approximately -32°C (-26°F) 482mb -15.7°C (3.7°F) Approximately -51°C (-60°F) 398mb -27.1°C (-16.8°F) Approximately -59°C (-74°F) Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 1028mb (Surface) 45° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph) 1002mb 45° (from the NE) 13 knots (15 mph) 932mb 50° (from the NE) 8 knots (9 mph) 915mb 25° (from the NNE) 17 knots (20 mph) 899mb 35° (from the NE) 13 knots (15 mph) 872mb 35° (from the NE) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 50° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph) 763mb 250° (from the WSW) 1 knots (1 mph) 701mb 310° (from the NW) 10 knots (12 mph) 670mb 285° (from the WNW) 14 knots (16 mph) 601mb 305° (from the NW) 20 knots (23 mph) 570mb 285° (from the WNW) 20 knots (23 mph) 553mb 295° (from the WNW) 23 knots (26 mph) 447mb 295° (from the WNW) 12 knots (14 mph) 416mb 275° (from the W) 13 knots (15 mph) 398mb 245° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph) Radiosonde data from the Gulf of Mexico. They must be very interested in the weather out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro not looking as good for much PL/ZR here- a bit warmer. Not that I was that excited about this anyway, I much prefer snow, a bit of sleet then cold rain- meh. I don't know how the Euro does down there but its horrid in the NE with temps...always too warm at the surface with wintry events, especially onces that are marginal, its resolution may not pick up the CAD in NE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?month=01&day=23&year=2013&storm=130123154019306&who=AF&aircraft=306&mission=WX&product=UZNT13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If we could get the system to dig and tap into some GOM moisture, many could be in for a treat. I wonder if that's what they are interested in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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