franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS still kills the QPF in the carolinas compared to places further west. If the GFS verifies north GA would have some issues on Friday with ice and that amount of QPF.gfs is nam like on qpf for the sw mtns. Over .50 qpf falls on both models and mostly freezing rain with temps in the 20's near Franklin the whole time per the nam. It could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 you know, can't we just get some snow in here and drop all the freezing rain. I would have thought with the north energy digging further south was a good thing for us. more snow than rain or sleet. is this not right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 you know, can't we just get some snow in here and drop all the freezing rain. I would have thought with the north energy digging further south was a good thing for us. more snow than rain or sleet. is this not right?its a stronger low and it brings in warm air above 5000ft. So its snow to sleet to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Both GFS and NAM say NE GA will get a winter storm of the ice variety. Both NAM and GFS have temps of 26-27 at the surface at 1pm Friday for the areas NE of ATL near the mountains. Date: 54 hour AVN valid 18Z FRI 25 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 188 SFC 964 480 -3.2 -6.0 81 2.8 -4.1 146 5 272.8 273.2 271.0 279.8 2.53 2 950 595 -4.6 -6.5 86 1.9 -5.3 154 6 272.5 272.9 270.7 279.2 2.46 3 900 1019 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.5 203 23 278.0 278.5 275.1 287.0 3.23 4 850 1479 3.6 3.5 99 0.2 3.5 228 48 290.0 291.0 284.0 306.5 5.78 5 800 1973 3.5 3.2 98 0.3 3.3 242 55 294.9 295.9 286.2 312.4 6.01 6 750 2495 1.2 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 249 57 297.9 298.9 286.7 314.0 5.43 7 700 3048 -1.7 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.9 253 58 300.6 301.5 287.0 314.8 4.69 8 650 3635 -4.5 -5.2 95 0.7 -4.8 262 64 303.8 304.6 287.5 316.1 3.99 9 600 4262 -7.9 -8.7 94 0.8 -8.2 269 70 306.9 307.6 287.8 317.3 3.30 10 550 4934 -11.6 -12.1 96 0.5 -11.8 275 72 310.3 310.8 288.5 319.1 2.76 11 500 5659 -15.7 -16.2 96 0.4 -15.9 277 74 313.9 314.3 289.0 321.0 2.17 12 450 6447 -19.8 -20.5 94 0.7 -20.0 272 74 318.3 318.7 289.9 323.9 1.66 13 400 7315 -23.7 -24.8 91 1.0 -24.0 265 87 324.1 324.4 291.3 328.6 1.28 14 350 8278 -30.8 -31.5 93 0.7 -30.9 264 93 327.3 327.4 291.7 330.1 0.79 15 300 9355 -38.3 -38.6 97 0.3 -38.3 267 102 331.4 331.5 292.6 333.1 0.45 16 250 10580 -49.2 -49.2 100 0.0 -49.2 270 112 332.9 333.0 292.7 333.6 0.17 17 200 12009 -58.3 -59.5 86 1.2 -58.3 279 123 340.5 340.5 294.5 340.8 0.06 what a waste. to get temps like that 26-27 and not get a good snow storm. lets get this to snow not freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z NAM drops .19 qpf 12z GFS drops .18 qpf So should be a very minor virga snow storm, unless they continue to amp up qpf? Both seem to want to dry out just east of the mts)foothills)? as did the last storm. Rest of NC seems to do a little better in with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 you know, can't we just get some snow in here and drop all the freezing rain. I would have thought with the north energy digging further south was a good thing for us. more snow than rain or sleet. is this not right? It has to dig a lot further south to avoid the warm air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Both GFS and NAM say NE GA will get a winter storm of the ice variety. Both NAM and GFS have temps of 26-27 at the surface at 1pm Friday for the areas NE of ATL near the mountains. Date: 54 hour AVN valid 18Z FRI 25 JAN 13Station: 34.59,-83.93Latitude: 34.59Longitude: -83.93-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 188 SFC 964 480 -3.2 -6.0 81 2.8 -4.1 146 5 272.8 273.2 271.0 279.8 2.53 2 950 595 -4.6 -6.5 86 1.9 -5.3 154 6 272.5 272.9 270.7 279.2 2.46 3 900 1019 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.3 -3.5 203 23 278.0 278.5 275.1 287.0 3.23 4 850 1479 3.6 3.5 99 0.2 3.5 228 48 290.0 291.0 284.0 306.5 5.78 5 800 1973 3.5 3.2 98 0.3 3.3 242 55 294.9 295.9 286.2 312.4 6.01 6 750 2495 1.2 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 249 57 297.9 298.9 286.7 314.0 5.43 7 700 3048 -1.7 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.9 253 58 300.6 301.5 287.0 314.8 4.69 8 650 3635 -4.5 -5.2 95 0.7 -4.8 262 64 303.8 304.6 287.5 316.1 3.99 9 600 4262 -7.9 -8.7 94 0.8 -8.2 269 70 306.9 307.6 287.8 317.3 3.30 10 550 4934 -11.6 -12.1 96 0.5 -11.8 275 72 310.3 310.8 288.5 319.1 2.76 11 500 5659 -15.7 -16.2 96 0.4 -15.9 277 74 313.9 314.3 289.0 321.0 2.17 12 450 6447 -19.8 -20.5 94 0.7 -20.0 272 74 318.3 318.7 289.9 323.9 1.66 13 400 7315 -23.7 -24.8 91 1.0 -24.0 265 87 324.1 324.4 291.3 328.6 1.28 14 350 8278 -30.8 -31.5 93 0.7 -30.9 264 93 327.3 327.4 291.7 330.1 0.79 15 300 9355 -38.3 -38.6 97 0.3 -38.3 267 102 331.4 331.5 292.6 333.1 0.45 16 250 10580 -49.2 -49.2 100 0.0 -49.2 270 112 332.9 333.0 292.7 333.6 0.17 17 200 12009 -58.3 -59.5 86 1.2 -58.3 279 123 340.5 340.5 294.5 340.8 0.06 Yep, I don't see the 85 corridor getting above freezing during the entire thing. However, there could be a sharp cutoff between significant accumulations and not per these runs. Would like to see it shift a little further south, and of course there is plenty of time for that. I'll be in gainesville though anyway tomorrow and friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 its a stronger low and it brings in warm air above 5000ft. So its snow to sleet to freezing rain. thanks franklin, it would be nice if we get a stronger storm to get heavy and more snow but I guess it doesn't work that way. man temps in the twenties during the day and getting sleet and freezing rain. we can't seem to get everything to line up just right but there is still time for this to lean toward more snow for the mtns. i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS still kills the QPF in the carolinas compared to places further west. If the GFS verifies north GA would have some issues on Friday with ice and that amount of QPF. That's classic. You hit the mountains and the storm is wrung out. I think the GFS has the right idea in keeping precip very light east of the mountains. I'd be surprised if it goes up any more; probably fluctuate back and forth a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anyone have total QPF map off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like we are going to torch for much of next week so whatever this storm brings you better enjoy it as there won't be much in the near term and it will be on to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Do the last runs of the NAM and GFS have sample info yet from the west coast? Just wondering when it is very likely this ZR will happen and when to go to the liquor store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM has a little mixed bag of mess for CAE at the onset maybe. Looked a bit dry out to the first couple frames. So for CAE we have: Sref half way on board, NAM, JMA, GGEM, Hi-Res NAM against Euro and GFS being too warm for wintry weather. Definitely awaiting the GEFS plumes. Hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like we are going to torch for much of next week so whatever this storm brings you better enjoy it as there won't be much in the near term and it will be on to February. transient warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 transient warmth True but it will still bring us to February before any hint of another chance could come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM seems a little more amped, showing a primary over WV and thus a warmer solution, still looks to be a nice winter event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Someone Posted that the latest GFS showed a slower moving system, would that give it time to tap the gulf for moisture or is it not far enough south/strong enough? Also, does the system's forward speed affect the amount of moisture it can pull into it? Sorry if these are basic questions, there is so much to learn and so little time. That, and work keeps getting in the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually, less QPF on 12z run than 0z (which was less than yesterday's 12z) GGEM seems a little more amped, showing a primary over WV and thus a warmer solution, still looks to be a nice winter event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM seems a little more amped, showing a primary over WV and thus a warmer solution, still looks to be a nice winter event... Nice dryslot there running along the foothills of NC all the way up into NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM seems a little more amped, showing a primary over WV and thus a warmer solution, still looks to be a nice winter event... And another skip for the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like we are going to torch for much of next week so whatever this storm brings you better enjoy it as there won't be much in the near term and it will be on to February. If I could get about 4 inches or more of snow out of this one I would be ready for next weeks warmth until another shot or two in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As depicted, looks like more snow for Triad, but icy in Charlotte Metro region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually, less QPF on 12z run than 0z (which was less than yesterday's 12z) A lot of the models seem to be converging on a light event similiarly to the 12Z GFS today. A couple of days back, I thing the Euro had RDU getting .30 liquid. I think that's about what we'll get. ***Models always seem to lose the storm details at the three day mark**The big question now is what, and where, the type will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And another skip for the foothills. Yep. If we can't get a Miller A, we're screwed with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How good is the high-resolution NAM typically at (presumably) longer hours (48+)? I don't think I've really used that model much. Hopefully this is ok to post since it is an old map. This was the hi-res snow map 12 hours before Friday's event. It certainly was correct for MBY and not too bad up north...I do think given this setup the solution today is certainly possible....but of course as we learned with the last storm you wanna see more models coming to a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 True but it will still bring us to February before any hint of another chance could come. aka your typical SE winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 aka your typical SE winter Yeah pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hopefully this is ok to post since it is an old map. This was the hi-res snow map 12 hours before Friday's event. It certainly was correct for MBY and not too bad up north...I do think given this setup the solution today is certainly possible....but of course as we learned with the last storm you wanna see more models coming to a consensus. Yes, It did good here also, I only had a dusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's part of the fun though, the excitement of tracking a storm, not knowing what will happen, the ups and downs of the emotions... this is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.