franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 @54 looks like it might start as snow for WNC but looks like it's going to switch over to ZR for many in the next frame...we'll see.it does there is a warm nose above 850. Looks like snow to sleet to freezing rain deal. Ice storms are rare on this side of the divide so I really have never experienced an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Precip field about the same on 12z NAM at 51.....maybe slightly more QPF. Timing is also slightly quicker. Based on the UL depiction, the energy should dig more compared to prior runs, and I would expect it to up amounts with a more robust jet setup, maybe even coastal development farther south off the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here's the NAM SFC temps at 21z Friday.... still quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's odd that this run turned out well at the surface, because when I was looking at the 500mb maps, it looked like the s/w was weaker and more progressive. Must be jet stream driving this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM has .25 over all of NC with .50 in SW portions of NC and ETN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Here's the NAM SFC temps at 21z Friday.... still quite cold. If only this were all snow....don't like that map considering this would be all ice....of course it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Toggle between the last two frames of this loop, I believe you can see a CAD signature beginning to form in the NE. Each frame is a day, 24 hours apart. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_12_temp_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is the NAM at 60 hours, right on the edge where it becomes fairly good, nice that it held from it's 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Toggle between the last two frames of this loop, I believe you can see a CAD signature beginning to form. Each frame is a day, 24 hours apart. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_12_temp_loop.php The NAM is beyond its prime range, it will continue to get nastier and nastier on that wedge for ATL...its way too warm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM is mainly all sleet south of I-40 to the SC state line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As precip begins in Shelby (note 800 and 750 layers): Date: 54 hour Eta valid 18Z FRI 25 JAN 13Station: KEHOLatitude: 35.26Longitude: -81.60-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 210 SFC 994 256 -3.5 -4.9 90 1.5 -4.0 126 5 270.1 270.6 269.5 277.3 2.66 2 950 613 -7.3 -7.4 99 0.2 -7.3 133 7 269.8 270.2 268.7 276.0 2.30 3 900 1034 -7.1 -7.6 96 0.5 -7.3 205 16 274.2 274.6 271.6 280.8 2.39 4 850 1483 -1.8 -1.8 100 0.0 -1.8 217 48 284.3 284.9 279.3 295.4 3.93 5 800 1970 2.0 2.0 100 0.0 2.0 247 64 293.3 294.3 285.1 309.4 5.54 6 750 2492 0.9 0.9 100 0.0 1.0 261 66 297.6 298.6 286.6 313.7 5.46 7 700 3044 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.5 267 67 300.8 301.7 287.3 315.6 4.90 8 650 3632 -4.5 -4.6 99 0.1 -4.6 271 62 303.9 304.7 287.6 316.7 4.20 9 600 4258 -8.8 -9.8 93 1.0 -9.2 269 65 305.9 306.5 287.2 315.4 3.0310 550 4926 -13.7 -15.6 86 1.9 -14.3 264 67 307.8 308.2 286.9 314.4 2.0711 500 5645 -16.9 -18.7 86 1.8 -17.4 268 74 312.4 312.8 288.2 318.2 1.7512 450 6428 -21.5 -23.2 86 1.7 -21.8 271 73 316.3 316.5 288.9 320.7 1.3113 400 7288 -26.4 -28.3 83 2.0 -26.7 270 83 320.7 320.9 290.0 324.0 0.9214 350 8240 -32.6 -35.8 73 3.2 -33.0 268 91 324.8 324.9 290.7 326.7 0.5215 300 9307 -41.1 -45.8 60 4.8 -41.4 274 99 327.5 327.5 291.2 328.3 0.2116 250 10518 -51.5 -56.4 56 4.9 -51.6 277 106 329.5 329.5 291.7 329.8 0.0717 200 11932 -60.5 -64.1 62 3.6 -60.6 285 116 336.9 336.9 293.6 337.0 0.0318 150 13705 -62.4 -72.9 23 10.5 -62.6 280 102 362.5 362.5 299.2 362.6 0.0119 100 16180 -69.0 -84.1 10 15.1 -69.1 274 79 394.4 394.4 304.5 394.5 0.00TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the NAM would indicate all snow, I believe, north of I 40 and all the way to the coast. Probably more than 10:1 ratios, too. On to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would be nice to see the nam gain support from other models. It can be used in conjunction with them, but alone it is virtuallly useless this far out IMO. If the euro/gfs/ggem can come in with a higher QPF output, it could be time to get excited for something more than a nuisance event. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The NAM is beyond its prime range, it will continue to get nastier and nastier on that wedge for ATL...its way too warm right now TD's are still in single digits to low 10's for metro ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Total precip on the NAM http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/402/namf.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As precip begins in Shelby (note 800 and 750 layers): If the NAM were taken literally it looks to lay down about a 1/2 of snow between you and I and then switches over to IP and stays that way until the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM is mainly all sleet south of I-40 to the SC state line Looks like -SN on the front end followed by a quick transition to ip, then zr for the bulk of it, moderate impact on travel around these parts, but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would be nice to see the nam gain support from other models. It can be used in conjunction with them, but alone it is virtuallly useless this far out IMO. If the euro/gfs/ggem can come in with a higher QPF output, it could be time to get excited for something more than a nuisance event. We shall see. I agree HKY...I need to see more model support than just the NAM. You know how the old saying goes, "if I had a ____ for everytime the NAM showed ____, I'd be a rich man." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM pretends the mountains do not exist and sends precip right over! (It tries to depict higher totals on the south-east TN side however.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 looks like we at least have a threat and hopefully a set up for winter wx in the se for the first time since the year before last! appears that ne ga will be in the potential for ice (which historically has usually been the case). i guess its about time since the last real ice storm here was dec 2005. a few minor icing "events" (.10), a few forecasted, but nothing in over 7 years. will be interesting to see if we really do get the cad set up this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nice even extends .25 line into all of southern va at about the 57hr timeframe I would hope ratios would be a little higher up here but haven't seen what upstairs warms to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at the extracted data at ktri through hour 54, all layers I can see support snow. Through hr 54, .28 of qpf has fallen. I can't see beyond hr 54, but the 800 and 750 levels are around -1.5 (at 54) and warming so I would think with this continuing to rise it would change to zr sometime after hr 54 and before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have new SREF loops now, here's the 700-850 thickness http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sref_09_850-700_nws_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anybody know what's up with the hole over NE GA on FFC's map? lol Sent from my Nexus One using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Areas south of that 850-700 mb thick 1550 gpm line, I would expect mostly or all zr, between it and 1540 lies the transition, sub 1300/1540 mostly SN. hrs 54 & 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anybody know what's up with the hole over NE GA on FFC's map? lol Sent from my Nexus One using Tapatalk 2 Don't see a hole but if you're talking about the white area... guess what that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Atlanta Nomograms, most models solidly with ice/freezing rain. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nomogram_ffc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 After finding more data through hour 60 on the 12z NAM, ktri looks to remain below freezing at all layers throughout the event. Nice little event as depicted on the NAM for northeast TN. It does show a fairly early and consistent warm nose for Knoxville though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have new SREF loops now, here's the 700-850 thickness http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sref_09_850-700_nws_loop.php Steve, please a brief education for me ... Thickness is, cloud coverage? depth of precip? Thanks still learning, Kat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For North Georgia folks, is there any similarity between this storm and the mini ice storm of December 2010. That one had minimal precipitation but cold temps and cold ground made it a driving nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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