packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the Euro ENS was a smidge wetter than the Op, still we are 60 hours away, we just need to get back up to the 0.3" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 CAE has introduced the chance of freezing drizzle Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Can we delete the thread yet? Frizzle is still possible for some of us, could be a bit of a mess actually.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Can we delete the thread yet? I love you man, but you can be the worse Kill joy.. Did you not get like 4" hour rates on a trip this year Now where is my .0001 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good post. I agree. I think in the next 2-3 cycles, we'll see the QPF comes back as the energy in question gets sampled better. I agree. We have seen this before. Still time for things to get wetter. But even just a little bit of snow/ice will cause problems on the roads here with it being so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ ...AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY. ...A FADING POTENTIAL OF A WINTERY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT? VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE... SYSTEM MAY SHEAR OUT TOO MUCH TO DELIVER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION... THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER AND EVEN DRIER NOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST TWO OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE NOW FORECASTING LESS THAN 0.05 OF QPF. OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH QPF TO DELIVER WINTER P-TYPE PROBLEMS FOR OUR REGION. THE LATEST EC STILL FORECASTS AROUND 0.25 LIQUID FOR OUR NW ZONES... TAILING OFF TO AROUND 0.10 IN THE SE. HOWEVER... THE DRIER TRENDS WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE CERTAINLY THE HEADLINER. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN CENTRAL NC WOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR FRI AND FRI EVENING... ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE ARCTIC (VERY DRY) AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DRIVEN BY A 1035+ MB SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM PA/NY. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0-10 RANGE AT 12Z/FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15-20 ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL LIGHT WINTERY MIXTURE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HPC HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS... BUT STILL LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GEFS MEANS AND THE OPERATION EC. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHEAR OUT THIS SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE... IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE NOW WEAKER LIFT TO GENERATE QPF. THE LIGHTER QPF AND DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE ALSO AFFECTS THE P-TYPE SOMEWHAT... AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST INADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION FOR SNOW. THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL... BUT LACK OF QPF WOULD MEAN LESS COOLING ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY GO ABOVE 32 FRIDAY. HOWEVER... COLD AIR IS NOT AN ISSUE... BUT VERY DRY AIR AND A MORE SHEARED SYSTEM ALONG WITH LESS MOISTURE ARE BIG ISSUES. Can we delete the thread yet? They didn't see the 6z runs. Big difference as far as QPF. Also data from pacific recon won't be ingested until 12z, possibly 0z runs later tonight... Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Newest Sref mean came in a little wetter than the previous run; especially for Southeast NC. Maybe this will be the trend today on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY....A FADING POTENTIAL OF A WINTERY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT?VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE... SYSTEM MAY SHEAR OUT TOO MUCH TO DELIVERSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER AND EVEN DRIER NOW THANIN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENTFRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST TWO OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS(GFS AND NAM) ARE NOW FORECASTING LESS THAN 0.05 OF QPF. OTHERMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH QPF TODELIVER WINTER P-TYPE PROBLEMS FOR OUR REGION. THE LATEST EC STILLFORECASTS AROUND 0.25 LIQUID FOR OUR NW ZONES... TAILING OFF TOAROUND 0.10 IN THE SE. HOWEVER... THE DRIER TRENDS WITH THE 00ZMODEL SUITE ARE CERTAINLY THE HEADLINER. IF THESE TRENDSCONTINUE...THEN CENTRAL NC WOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM THISEVENT. The story of our lives with winter here. Either wet and too warm, or cold and too dry. This is exactly why I hate when it gets really cold here, because often it is just dry. Maybe things will change today and tomorrow, though. I guess the good thing is if we get the cold now it could set the foundation for a real winter storm to come a little later down the road when it's cold enough for snow, but not so cold that there is no precip around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's dubious to rely on the NAM for QPF totals, especially for this range. It's infamous for overdoing precip amounts. I would like to see the GFS come in wetter before I would feel better about this. Me too, although it's wetter in ga obviously. FWIW, here is HPC's totals. Surprised to see them show nearly half inch amounts in north ga. Now most are 0.25 are greater on their maps and considering I expect temps to stay below freezing for most if not the entire duration of precip over the 85 corridor from the ne burbs of atlanta , gainesville, hartwell, toccoa, and probably here too, etc...that would actually mean a rather significant amount of freezing rain above the 85 corridor (going by their maps)..with decent amounts, 0.25, in places like athens, winder, here, etc. I think they might be a bit over done but those markers near a half inch are close to gainesville where i see it staying subfreezing most of the time.. Still don't see much in the way of sleet (I don't see any snow falling right now) and if the sleet is there, it shouldn't last but an hour or two as the atmosphere saturates..which means the majority of this is indeed freezing rain. Unless the models come in wetter today, I don't expect them to forecast totals this high. 0.20 to 0.25 is more realistic to me but 0.40 to 0.50 is a stretch right now based on the modeling as it currently stands imo. he made three post about it yesterday as im sure he was getting nervous thst the trend was south of dc. Shocking. Other than maybe glenn motherf'n burns out of atlanta, he's easily my least favorite forecaster. Between his hype and bias, he's just so damn annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The story of our lives with winter here. Either wet and too warm, or cold and too dry. This is exactly why I hate when it gets really cold here, because often it is just dry. Maybe things will change today and tomorrow, though. I guess the good thing is if we get the cold now it could set the foundation for a real winter storm to come a little later down the road when it's cold enough for snow, but not so cold that there is no precip around. Dryer for you, icier for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I expect to see some watches very soon, warnings not too far after. We're within 48 hours for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I love you man, but you can be the worse Kill joy.. Did you not get like 4" hour rates on a trip this year Now where is my .0001 of ice He's the southeastern's JB...if it doesn't happen in north carolina it doesn't happen j/k eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I love you man, but you can be the worse Kill joy.. Did you not get like 4" hour rates on a trip this year Now where is my .0001 of ice 2" per hour You have to understand my sarcasm (not easily conveyed through a computer screen). I was half joking there. I love winter wx obviously and nobody likes a potential letdown no matter what. You are correct though I have much less of a right to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GSP's latest disco mentions a half inch to an inch of wintry precip. I haven't been impressed due to the dry airmass, honestly, but dang. If even half that is before the changeover then we'll be in a mess as if Friday afternoon between 13z and 18z isn't bad enough to drive in already.**Also, I have had an issue with them lately about their discos. Never know exactly where they're talking about. CFA tells me nothing except it's somewhere between TN and the Atlantic.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GSP's latest disco mentions a half inch to an inch of wintry precip. I haven't been impressed due to the dry airmass, honestly, but dang. If even half that is before the changeover then we'll be in a mess as if Friday afternoon between 13z and 18z isn't bad enough to drive in already. **Also, I have had an issue with them lately about their discos. Never know exactly where they're talking about. CFA tells me nothing except it's somewhere between TN and the Atlantic.** Yeah, a lot of folks are concerned about the low amounts of qpf. If it is all snow, it might not be as bad, but if it is ice it could be a whole other story. Whatever falls is going to stick on the roads fast with the cold we have this week. It doesn't take that much ice on the roads to cause havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The meteogram shows the potential trouble for anything wintry to fall in Hickory (and most of the NW piedmont of NC, for that matter). Of the American models, only the NAM is showing any significant precipitation, no matter the type. A positive is that the 06Z has now trended wetter than the 00Z, but the NAM didn't do that great on precipitation amounts from last Friday's storm. The 06Z GFS also trended wetter (by 100%!), but does it really matter when you move from 0.01 inch to 0.02 inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2" per hour You have to understand my sarcasm (not easily conveyed through a computer screen). I was half joking there. I love winter wx obviously and nobody likes a potential letdown no matter what. You are correct though I have much less of a right to complain. I knew you were being sarcastic and joking and I'm pretty sure he did too And we were too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HPC THE FORECAST APPROACH IS CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR ISSUANCES...WHICHIS FAVORING AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE STRONGER ECMWFAND WEAKER GFS...WHILE EXCLUDING THE SOLUTIONS FURTHEST FROM THECONSENSUS...I.E. THE NAM/UKMET...UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INQUESTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND CANBECOME MORE THOROUGHLY SAMPLED FOR IMPROVED MODEL INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...UNTIL THIS OCCURS CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULAR DETAILSIS LESS THAN IDEAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 HPC THE FORECAST APPROACH IS CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR ISSUANCES...WHICHIS FAVORING AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE STRONGER ECMWFAND WEAKER GFS...WHILE EXCLUDING THE SOLUTIONS FURTHEST FROM THECONSENSUS...I.E. THE NAM/UKMET...UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INQUESTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND CANBECOME MORE THOROUGHLY SAMPLED FOR IMPROVED MODEL INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...UNTIL THIS OCCURS CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULAR DETAILSIS LESS THAN IDEAL. Sounds like the smart approach since we really don't know what will happen yet. When will the models get to sample that shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Comparing 12z NAM to 6z NAM through 33 hours -- having a hard time finding much difference. Northern s/w perhaps a bit farther south up in Canada on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I expect to see some watches very soon, warnings not too far after. We're within 48 hours for some of us. Hey guys, I have not posted much, just been lurking. Glad to see NE GA folks are finally having some winter wx to talk about. Started a new job so can't post much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sounds like the smart approach since we really don't know what will happen yet. When will the models get to sample that shortwave? I just can't get into this thing. I'm hoping, but looking at the logistics it just never works. It's a clipper, it's coming from the west over the mountains, it's got no gulf moisture, the air in place is bone dry, the models are VERY sheepish on precip. Hopefully Georgia will cash in on a nice slizzard, but if CLT gets a pellet or two to fall I'll consider this an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sounds like the smart approach since we really don't know what will happen yet. When will the models get to sample that shortwave? I believe the energy has already been tapped - maybe well see it in the evening run... I just can't get into this thing. I'm hoping, but looking at the logistics it just never works. It's a clipper, it's coming from the west over the mountains, it's got no gulf moisture, the air in place is bone dry, the models are VERY sheepish on precip. Hopefully Georgia will cash in on a nice slizzard, but if CLT gets a pellet or two to fall I'll consider this an overperformer. I just don't see it either. The only way I'll buy this system is if I slip and bust my *** on it as I leave the house Saturday morning. Clipper type energy does not translate well on the extreme east side of the apps in the Upstate (NC is a different story). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam looks juicier at 48hr. Maybe slightly north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM looks a smidge north with precip and a little wetter through 51, looks to be a nice ice/snow storm for NE/NC part of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM is wetter @51 has a 1028 high sliding into good position as well. Looks like snow in SW NC and ZR for eastern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Precip field about the same on 12z NAM at 51.....maybe slightly more QPF. Timing is also slightly quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 @54 looks like it might start as snow for WNC but looks like it's going to switch over to ZR for many in the next frame...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LOL at 12z NAM -- not only not backing down, but amping up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 @57 looks like snow for I40 and central and north NC. ZR/IP below I-40 ...If NAM was correct this looks like a nasty little ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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