jrips27 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 0Z GFS is another good run for N GA and especially NW GA/ATL area, where ~0.25" of mainly ZR falls in some areas. If anything, it may actually be a touch colder than the 18Z.This would be a pretty significant ZR event for ATL and would easily be the heaviest ZR event that wasn't immediately following a snow for many in the area since 12/2005. This could be a big mess on some roads although 0.25" shouldn't cause many power outages. Larry I appreciate all the updates on the ATL area. .25" of ZR would certainly cause problems on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well, I don't think it's that dire, but relying on the NAM for precip is always a risky endeavor. No way around the UK and CMC high precip outputs, however. If the Euro holdd serve, I'd say this doesn't look too bad. But if it bows to the bone dry GFS, I'm right there with you. Glad I didn't buy into this. Looks like a QPF bust. FAIL (potentially anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM... Whatever precip any model produces is wanting to skip over the foothills again! This looks to do the same... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 850 line still barely creeps into far northern N.C. Probably a nasty ice storm (but hopefully sleet) -- looks like .2-.5 QPF. I'm pretty sure that line you are referring to on the Canadian is the 1000-700mb critical thickness line...but take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You are correct. I'm pretty sure that line you are referring to on the Canadian is the 1000-700mb critical thickness line...but take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Regardless of QPF there will be some Wintry weather. Almost all models have gone to this solution. Tomorrow's 00z will solidify potential QPF amounts for sure. Down here in CAE, I'd be happy to see 2 min of sleet and nothing else! Haven't had much down this way lately. The moisture will have to overcome the dry air and we will get what we get. I do think when we get closer to the Hi-Res WRF/Rap etc.. we will have a much better idea of the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still usually a good rough rain/snow line, though, right? I'm pretty sure that line you are referring to on the Canadian is the 1000-700mb critical thickness line...but take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes, GGEM looks decent right now but we sure can't afford to lose any more precip or it will be a fail. We just don't have much wiggle room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Larry, did you see my posts about the RPM? I would says ***IF*** that happens to be close to right, then it could be an icy mess that way...Looked like .25" total QPF Chris, Yes. That looked very interesting to say the least. Also, that would somewhat validate the ~0.25" of ZR for parts of NW GA based on the last three GFS runs. Marietta had ~0.25" on both the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs and is probably pretty close to that on the 0Z, too. Your area may even join some of the fun?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Much better idea per this model soon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ATL Bufkit Data with Bourgoiun Precip Type enabled: (disabled it shows some sleet at the start instead) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Still usually a good rough rain/snow line, though, right? Here's some info on it - http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/ On the black and white Canadian panels, that is the 284 dam or 2840 gpm thickness line. From what I've seen with it in the past, if you are north of the line, it's definite snow, but I've seen snow south of that line...and to me, the Canadian ptypes on the loop tend to be quite good...of course, this is obviously still out there and we don't know if the precip will even be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anyone up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Anyone up for the Euro? Wow. Its back again it seems LoL pressure is lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wow. Its back again it seems LoL pressure is lower I'm out to hr 42 on the Weather Underground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Can you provide a link to the euro maps you're following? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 From what little I can tell from the free maps, it looks like maybe 1-4" for northern NC based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm out to hr 42 on the Weather Underground maps. Try relighwx its out to past 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty dry but not as bad as GFS. Quick hitter, in and out in less than 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty dry but not as bad as GFS. Quick hitter, in and out in less than 6 hours. I think people are forgetting that this is a clipper but ill take what i can get at this point haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro is spareing CAE from a ZR event it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro looks to put down 2-4 inches of snow N of 40 in East Tennessee. Looks closer to 1-2 across mainly the Northern half of NC. Appears that it's either drying out or speeding up after crossing the Apps on the Euro snowfall charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 6z NAM has a nice snow even for most of NC. The snow maps really dump on the CLT area, that heavier band of accum extends E/NE all the way to the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 6z NAM has a nice snow even for most of NC. The snow maps really dump on the CLT area, that heavier band of accum extends E/NE all the way to the OBX. I would take the 6z NAM and call it a day....Nice snowfall for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually it's an ice storm across NE GA, S.NC and upstate SC.where it's painting the heaviest snow. Skew-T's are showing some 4-8c temps around 850 with surface temps -2 to -3. I would take the 6z NAM and call it a day....Nice snowfall for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually it's an ice storm across NE GA, S.NC and upstate SC.where it's painting the heaviest snow. Skew-T's are showing some 4-8c temps around 850 with surface temps -2 to -3. Yep, just looked at the soundings and it shows +2c 850 temps even in mby. It does show some front end snow before the changeover to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 06z GFS had a bit more QPF and a more expansive QPF field. Still not a ton of precip, especially east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I bet burger, strong, and beanskip like the 6z nam snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Again...I DONT buy this yet...but, just showing what it says Must be correct...:-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Woohooo!!! Kiss of death, Atlanta is on board http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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