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Jan 25th Winter Weather Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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 The 0Z GFS is another good run for N GA and especially NW GA/ATL area, where ~0.25" of mainly ZR falls in some areas. If anything, it may actually be a touch colder than the 18Z.This would be a pretty significant ZR event for ATL and would easily be the heaviest ZR event that wasn't immediately following a snow for many in the area since 12/2005. This could be a big mess on some roads although 0.25" shouldn't cause many power outages.

Larry I appreciate all the updates on the ATL area. .25" of ZR would certainly cause problems on the roads.

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Well, I don't think it's that dire, but relying on the NAM for precip is always a risky endeavor. No way around the UK and CMC high precip outputs, however. If the Euro holdd serve, I'd say this doesn't look too bad. But if it bows to the bone dry GFS, I'm right there with you.

Glad I didn't buy into this. Looks like a QPF bust. FAIL (potentially anyway)

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Regardless of QPF there will be some Wintry weather.  Almost all models have gone to this solution.  Tomorrow's 00z will solidify potential QPF amounts for sure.  Down here in CAE, I'd be happy to see 2 min of sleet and nothing else!  Haven't had much down this way lately.

 

The moisture will have to overcome the dry air and we will get what we get.  I do think when we get closer to the Hi-Res WRF/Rap etc.. we will have a much better idea of the amounts.

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Larry, did you see my posts about the RPM?  I would says ***IF*** that happens to be close to right, then it could be an icy mess that way...Looked like .25" total QPF

 

Chris,

 Yes. That looked very interesting to say the least. Also, that would somewhat validate the ~0.25" of ZR for parts of NW GA based on the last three GFS runs. Marietta had ~0.25" on both the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs and is probably pretty close to that on the 0Z, too. Your area may even join some of the fun??

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Still usually a good rough rain/snow line, though, right?

Here's some info on it - http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/

 

On the black and white Canadian panels, that is the 284 dam or 2840 gpm thickness line.  From what I've seen with it in the past, if you are north of the line, it's definite snow, but I've seen snow south of that line...and to me, the Canadian ptypes on the loop tend to be quite good...of course, this is obviously still out there and we don't know if the precip will even be present.

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Actually it's an ice storm across NE GA, S.NC and upstate SC.where it's painting the heaviest snow. Skew-T's are showing some 4-8c temps around 850 with surface temps -2 to -3.

 

Yep, just looked at the soundings and it shows +2c 850 temps even in mby. It does show some front end snow before the changeover to sleet.

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