beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 oz NAM never gets CLT/Shelby/HKY above 27 degrees at the surface through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Given the dew points on the GFS, that won't even hit the ground east of the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What does the 12 km show at 72 hours? Your previous post only showed out to 66 hours...thanks...sorry...don't have WSI graphics A little ZR left for Mid GA, S and SE SC, with some (showing snow) on north side of that in central SC and a mix around Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS still has 3 days to trend wetter, so it is not a total loss just yet. And if your w/ Blacksburg, they are riding the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A little ZR left for Mid GA, S and SE SC, with some (showing snow) on north side of that in central SC and a mix around Wilmington Word. I don't care how unreasonable that model is compared to the other models, I'll take that output and call it a night. I'm a little curious to see what's pushing the frozen precip south on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 0Z GFS is another good run for N GA and especially NW GA/ATL area, where ~0.25" of mainly ZR falls in some areas. If anything, it may actually be a touch colder than the 18Z.This would be a pretty significant ZR event for ATL and would easily be the heaviest ZR event that wasn't immediately following a snow for many in the area since 12/2005. This could be a big mess on some roads although 0.25" shouldn't cause many power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The trends in the past 48 would make one think, going south to smoke a few cigars...however, if those couple of pieces in the n stream can...I can do it, I can do it...someone is going to get their eye put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 WXII not talking about much now either. Said precip is limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For CAE, although little QPF on the 00z GFS, there is still an indication of ice on it and the 00z NAM. New SREF Plumes show higher chance at ice also. Maybe a freezing "fog"? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The UKmet looked amped with a nice precip field coming through the midsouth. I saw the map in the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 0Z GFS is another good run for N GA and especially NW GA/ATL area, where ~0.25" of mainly ZR falls in some areas. If anything, it may actually be a touch colder than the 18Z.This would be a pretty significant ZR event for ATL and would easily be the heaviest ZR event that wasn't immediately following a snow for many in the area since 12/2005. This could be a big mess on some roads although 0.25" shouldn't cause many power outages. Hmm, I don't remember any ice in Dec 2005. The last ice I remember was Jan. 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 0Z GFS is another good run for N GA and especially NW GA/ATL area, where ~0.25" of mainly ZR falls in some areas. If anything, it may actually be a touch colder than the 18Z.This would be a pretty significant ZR event for ATL and would easily be the heaviest ZR event that wasn't immediately following a snow for many in the area since 12/2005. This could be a big mess on some roads although 0.25" shouldn't cause many power outages. Larry, did you see my posts about the RPM? I would says ***IF*** that happens to be close to right, then it could be an icy mess that way...Looked like .25" total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Given the dew points on the GFS, that won't even hit the ground east of the mountains! It's hard to care about dew points on the GFS when theres no moisture moving in to raise them, and by that I mean no moisture even makes it over the apps hardly. If it did, dew points could possibly rise in enough time for the Piedmont and central NC to be in action. Ok, well Van Denton aside, what are the chances of the dry air affecting the storm? Is there enough moisture to juice things up quickly? Also, I keep reading where people say that the run is more south. Are you talking about the moisture farther south, the cold farther south or something entirely different? Oh, and "stronger". Do we want it "stronger" or "weaker"? What exactly are you talking about? Sorry for all the questions, but that's how you learn, right? I mean, the NAM looks decent but if you look at the soundings at hour 63 if it were to be snowing on radar it wouldn't be hitting the ground due to low dew points, get out to 3 hours later it's perfect and from 66-72 you get several inches in central NC. GFS is showing an entirely different solution, this system lacking moisture and the dp staying low throughout. At least, that's how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks amped........yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just for reference, 01/18/2000 is an example of a clipper that produced without a substantial vort max tracking into the Carolinas (and with a weak surface reflection) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2000/us0118.php http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20000118.gif I remember that storm. We had thundersnow here. Northern stream storms are often duds, but can be some of the best b/c they are colder by nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hmm, I don't remember any ice in Dec 2005. The last ice I remember was Jan. 2005. It was during 12/14-5/2005, but may not have extended as far west as your location. There also was one 1/28-9/2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks amped........yes? Definitely, why we need to see the other models as the CMC and UK were plenty amped, maybe GFS is leading the way and fizzling out the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 CMC has wintry weather further south than 12z. Maybe a bit of sleet/tiny bit of freezing rain for CAE, but not much. The main point is it's more South and colder. Along with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly, I made that map on Plymouth a half hour ago and kept staring at it and trying to figure out what I did wrong to get a 1+ inch QPF maxima over Tenn. and finally gave up and figured I was just going batty. Looks amped........yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM is definitely weaker...don't have the 72 hour panel yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM is definitely weaker...don't have the 72 hour panel yet.... check this site out: CMC Precip Type You need to manually change it to date/time for 00z since it's not done running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly, I made that map on Plymouth a half hour ago and kept staring at it and trying to figure out what I did wrong to get a 1+ inch QPF maxima over Tenn. and finally gave up and figured I was just going batty. OK, I lol at this bean. Canadian is a pretty good snow hit for most of NC, save the SE portion of the state http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 and DRIER...we'll have to see if this event pans out or not...starting to become skeptical...we'll know for sure tomorrow night RGEM has wintry weather further south than 12z. Maybe a bit of sleet/tiny bit of freezing rain for CAE, but not much. The main point is it's more South and colder. Along with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 and DRIER...we'll have to see if this event pans out or not...starting to become skeptical...we'll know for sure tomorrow night Generally in years, I've noticed if the GFS is dry, then it's a low QPF event. Changes have been done to that model over recent years, and not sure if that still holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Canadian at 72 not as amped -- a flatter wave -- less precip -- warmer over Tenn. Valley, but cooler over N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The Canadian actually looks pretty good. It appears to have a decent amount of precip and has all-snow for many areas all the way out to Elizabeth City and the Northern OBX (at the end, at least). The Canadian was actually too warm for a lot of us at 12z, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Glad I didn't buy into this. Looks like a QPF bust. FAIL (potentially anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Getting varying comments on here about the Canadian, but it has 5-6 hours of moderate snow for RDU per the loop...of course, the GFS is vastly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 850 line still barely creeps into far northern N.C. Probably a nasty ice storm (but hopefully sleet) -- looks like .2-.5 QPF. The Canadian actually looks pretty good. It appears to have a decent amount of precip and has all-snow for many areas all the way out to Elizabeth City and the Northern OBX. The Canadian was actually too warm for a lot of us at 12z, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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