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January 27-28 Wintry System


wisconsinwx

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FWIW that donut hole was over DVN as well, dry air is region wide and will take awhile to saturate to get this event to begin.  Still dry here.  Narrow band of precip finally made it into QC, but is slowly shrinking as it heads this way.  Late arrival and relatively light precip should make for a very light glazing event here before we change to all rain by 2-3pm.  Sitting at 29 currently.

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I'm in awe over that graphic with dry air over LOT and DVN... Getting a little pathetic at this point.

I'm still optimistic for many having close to a quarter inch of ice. The cold air is holding its own so far.

 

MI/WI have better chances, we had a weak impulse move by overnight that helped saturate most of the column, you can see it on the GRB 12z sounding. DTX's as well though though from 700-850mb there is dry air, although the weak impulse is still in the area saturating the atmosphere.

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how long until LOT updates its discussion? I already know what they're going to say. "Dry air really hanging on longer than anticipated. Getting concerned that  that warm air will make it to surface shortly after precip starts. Will consider cancelling Advisory with next update."  

 

Already looking forward to possible severe storms on Tuesday.....

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What a disaster the morning commute is going to be per the 12z NAM. Over a quarter inch of ice right during rush hour, on top of 2" of snow. RGEM is much colder though, indicating most of the pcpn will fall as snow before a brief period of ZR. GFS is bone dry and mostly a non-event.

 

So little intra and inter model consistency it's hard to come up with a forecast.

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0945 AM     SLEET            ERIE                    41.66N 90.08W   01/27/2013  U0.00 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER                 ISOLATED LARGE SNOWFLAKES THE SIZE OF COTTON BALLS MIXED               WITH LIGHT SLEET  

 

Is this your report Cyclone77?

 

Yep.  Check out the roof of the neighbors garage.  Only lasted a few minutes but it was pretty cool.  Like little white bombs coming down.  Just some light sleet falling now...

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/189/largeflakes.jpg/'>largeflakes.jpg

 

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