A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 freezing rain probs continue to decrease for chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'm really stumped on what's going to happen over here across SWMI... At this point it looks like anything could happen from 4 hours of sleet, 4 of freezing rain, then rain. I was reluctant on having the ZR to turn to R- so quickly but it seems possible at this point. If we ended up with ZR longer I see no reason why we wouldn't have an ice storm warning here across southern lower Michigan/northern IN. Interested in 00z data, however I think GRR was a little too trigger happy with the WWA. The watch should have stood as LOT and DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I don't know how much the lake is going to cut down on the freezing rain when it's got ice flows along the shore! The snow is settling sublimating here, nothing melting today except off the concrete and roofs. Ground plenty cold enough to support ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Air is pretty dry at the surface. You have to go into Kansas to find dewpoints in the 30s. The 00z RAOBs will give an indication of how dry it is aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Environment Canada is now calling for a high of only 33F in Markham, a northern suburb of Toronto, on monday. I wonder if they're sensing the cold air holding its ground? 18z NAM came in much colder after the 12z was one of the warmer runs I've seen. EURO was also pretty cold. Without a ENE wind locked in, we're going to warm at the surface at some point, but right now it looks like there could be an extended period of -PL/ZR after the snow switches over. 18z models have all trended drier though, so that's something else we need to watch in terms of whether this becomes a big deal or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Density and water contents will have a lot to do with the time it takes the ground to warm up. I have a feeling with all the rain and very cold temps as of late it might take some time to thaw out the ground with the onset of liquid precip. At this point there are too many varibles to lock down a solid forecast. Going to pre treat all the parking spaces with salt tonight for the onset of weather tomorrow night. I like to be one step in front of the weather expecially when ice is a strong possibility. A parking lot takes way too much time to bring back from ice to asphalt, it is always a must to have salt down before, during and after a -FZRN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Once again, another NOWCAST storm system I hope we get weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 IWX going with WWA beginning at 3 PM EST for their Southwestern CWA and 6 PM for the Northeast section. Concerning melting/sublimation, we lost 1" of our 1 1/2" today, even though the high temp was 27 and we had limited sunshine. It kind of surprised me. I remember similar conditions back in early January and we hardly lost any snow. However, I believe that surface temps are cold enough the some zr is going to create some problems for a few hours in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nam coming in dry surprise surprise!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Nam coming in dry surprise surprise!!! Not really. It just blows up the precipitation later/further south. Shows 2-4" of snow here before switching here. Not as cold as the 18z NAM, but much improved from the toasty 12z run (and it moves the precipitation in faster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Not really. It just blows up the precipitation later/further south. Shows 2-4" of snow here before switching here. Not as cold as the 18z NAM, but much improved from the toasty 12z run (and it moves the precipitation in faster) Feel like dtx is going to wait until the last minute to post anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Warmer and drier here. Lovely combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Warmer and drier here. Lovely combination. .2 inches of ice here. Craptastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 NAM throws more moisture across the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Saints- you see what La Crosse has up? They show 1/10 inch of ice and 1 to 3 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This dry layer is such a pain. A couple hours either way in terms of saturation could have noticeable effects on how much ice there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 0z NAM shows an inch of ice for eastern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 IWX going with WWA beginning at 3 PM EST for their Southwestern CWA and 6 PM for the Northeast section. Concerning melting/sublimation, we lost 1" of our 1 1/2" today, even though the high temp was 27 and we had limited sunshine. It kind of surprised me. I remember similar conditions back in early January and we hardly lost any snow. However, I believe that surface temps are cold enough the some zr is going to create some problems for a few hours in our area. That sun angle sneaks up on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Inch of ice? Going to need a jackhammer to clean the windows off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 LOT update... 854 PM CSTNOT PLANNING ON ANY HEADLINE CHANGES THIS EVENING.AM CONSIDERING WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES AS MANYSITES HAVE HAD TEMPS HOLD STEADY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND CLOUDCOVER WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLYAS WELL. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AS 03Z OBS COME IN AND DECIDE.A WARMER START COULD ULTIMATELY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SPEED OFWARMING SUNDAY AS WELL. NEW 00Z DATA STARTING TO ARRIVE WITH NAMTHERMAL PROFILES LOOKING PRETTY SIMILAR WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN INTERMS OF SPEED OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WARMING INTO THE LATEAFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WAS FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. LIQUIDPRECIP OUTPUT HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA BETWEEN I-80AND I-90 WHICH IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS MAXPRECIP PLACEMENT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS STILL LOOKS TO ALLOWFOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND SLEET POTENTIAL AT ONSET. GIVEN LACKOF OTHER NEW DATA...AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW TEMPS WILL EVOLVEOVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANYCHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FORA QUARTER INCH OF ICE CONTINUING. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY STILLLOOKS REASONABLE WITH CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH ICE AMOUNTS STILLLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EVENT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WITH QPF AMOUNTS BY 00Z AROUND A QUARTER TO ALMOST A HALF INCH. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow morning to an Ice Storm Warning. At least the winds will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 WGN's RPM in-house model showed the precip not even arriving in Chicago until 4pm. Ha! Even Jim Ramsey said 'well, that's probably not right.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Lol @ the RPM^. My forecast has sleet starting late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 New RGEM much quicker on the changeover to all rain here. Only a few hours of light freezing rain before all rain by 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Both GFS and NAM showing area of stronger lift located at the nose of the low level jet streaking south of YYZ. We're left with rather paltry QPF, generally less than 0.25" split between snow, ice, and rain. It'll only take a small shift north to get into some of the better juice but assuming that doesn't happen snowfall amounts will be less than 2". Then a nice drenching Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This time period looks nasty for S WI, NE IL. S. MI looks to get hammered with ice as well. ... all that snow is going to keep it colder longer of there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Not that I necessarily trust the GFS thermals more than the NAM, but at this point no one north of I-80 should be punting on the ice storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 RGEM ZR accum: North of the Wabash Valley in IN is >0.20" with some areas >0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Whats the QPF to accretion factor for ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Not that I necessarily trust the GFS thermals more than the NAM, but at this point no one north of I-80 should be punting on the ice storm potential. I can see a sizable Ice Storm Warning tomorrow morning if this is the case. As I said last night, could be the first REAL ice storm for my area since December 11, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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