Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Easy under. I'm still kinda hopeful that the NAM is overdone with the dryness. I mean, it was a bit overdone yesterday even though it was on the right track so to speak. Would be aggravating if we're struggling to get precip and then it's like 34 degrees by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 <p> http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/wwa_definitions/wsw.php Ice Storm Warning A significant, and possibly damaging, accumulation of ice. Normally a coating of at least 1/4-inch, but may be up to 1/2-inch if winds are less than 15 mph. Freezing Rain or Freezing Drizzle Advisory Situations that cause significant inconveniences, and do not meet warning criteria. If caution is not used, this could lead to life-threatening situations. Ice accumulation causes driving or walking problems, but no damage to trees or power lines Thanks. For some reason I thought they got got rid of ice warnings when they decided that heavy snow warnings and snow advisories would be absorbed by winter storm warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 GFS gives us a quick shot of snow before turning to ZR and eventually rain while the NAM starts us off with ZR before changing to rain. I think we will see mostly ZR before the change over, with the better chance at some snow/sleet to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'm still kinda hopeful that the NAM is overdone with the dryness. I mean, it was a bit overdone yesterday even though it was on the right track so to speak. Would be aggravating if we're struggling to get precip and then it's like 34 degrees by the time it gets here. I can envision that scenario playing out. Verbatim, I guess the NAM is not a complete shutout of something for LAF, but 0.03" isn't going to cut it. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It will be interesting to see what LOT does with headlines... Guidance has cut back on the precip amounts...Then add in temp issues. Looks like it would be hard to reach warning criteria in a widespread fashion (If anywhere at all), with advisory criteria looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 snow is melting all over right now...surfaces really aren't that cold. Non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 snow is melting all over right now...surfaces really aren't that cold. Non-event. Chi Storm mentioned that the other day and it took me by surprise. I wonder if it's more like sublimation vs melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 GFS is a bit colder at the sfc here when comparing to the NAM at 0z tomorrow evening. Can see a decent period of freezing rain but warms to freezing by 3z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Chi Storm mentioned that the other day and it took me by surprise. I wonder if it's more like sublimation vs melting. Maybe the sun felt pretty warm today and it's mostly melting on paved surfaces. Either way, we won't be heading into tomorrow with super cold surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 My current thoughts for LAF are up to a tenth of an inch of ice before changing to rain. Can't rule out a very brief period of snow/sleet at onset with wetbulb cooling but this would be very brief if it occurs at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Chi Storm mentioned that the other day and it took me by surprise. I wonder if it's more like sublimation vs melting. Imagination. Nothing has melted, that's not in direct sunlight, on the sidewalks at my parent's house. The ground's/pavement's not cold rhetoric is a bunch of poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 My current thoughts for LAF are up to a tenth of an inch of ice before changing to rain. Can't rule out a very brief period of snow/sleet at onset with wetbulb cooling but this would be very brief if it occurs at all. Getting precip will be our bugaboo IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Imagination. Nothing has melted, that's not in direct sunlight, on the sidewalks at my parent's house. The ground's/pavement's not cold rhetoric is a bunch of poo. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 18z NAM is an improvement here, in terms of snow prospects. Still probsbly too warm for anything more than 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI218 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT....SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDTRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH UP TO 0.20 INCHES BUT UNDER 0.10INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERETEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM0.5 INCHES NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER TO AROUND 2 INCHES TOWARDCENTRAL WISCONSIN.LOW PRESSURE AND A SURGE OF WARM AIR SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET UP INTHE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WHILE SURFACETEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SOUTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLYBRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THEREGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN WITHLIGHT RAIN...FOG...AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.WIZ059-060-064>066-070>072-270430-/O.UPG.KMKX.WS.A.0001.130127T1500Z-130128T1200Z//O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0002.130127T2000Z-130128T0600Z/WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA218 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THEWINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES WITH THE LIGHTEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN MILWAUKEE...RACINE...AND KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO THE WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...0.5 TO 1 INCH.* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. UNTREATED WALKING SURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY AND DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$$MG/MRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Imagination. Nothing has melted, that's not in direct sunlight, on the sidewalks at my parent's house. The ground's/pavement's not cold rhetoric is a bunch of poo. Yeah, that's silly, it's been well below freezing since last Saturday night and the frost depth as of Thursday outside the WFO was 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks like this will give us 0.10-0.25" of glaze before changing to rain mid-late afternoon. May see a few ice pellets at the beginning, but not expecting much of that. Should get just enough glazing to make it look pretty cool out there for a little while before the shower temp gets turned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Environment Canada is now calling for a high of only 33F in Markham, a northern suburb of Toronto, on monday. I wonder if they're sensing the cold air holding its ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NICE SURGE OF MOISTURENORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATERVALUES. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURENORTHWARD...BUT WILL BE SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND 15Z ANDTHEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH 20Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFTINCREASES. BIGGEST QUESTION THEN BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPES ASMODELS STILL ADVERTISE A DISTINCT WARM LAYER ALOFT AS MUCH AS 5DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.GIVEN PRECIPITATION RATES FEEL SOME DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMNWILL OCCUR INITIALLY BEFORE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHESTEMPERATURES UP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWAAND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SO AFTER A SLEET SNOW COMBINATIONEARLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER NORTHALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THE WARM LATER REMAINS AROUND 1-2DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE WARMING AFTER 00Z. THUSEXPECT MORE SNOW/SLEET BEFORE MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. NORTH OFTHIS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SKEET AND SNOW WITH ANYTRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKSAS THOUGH ABOUT ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATIONWILL FALL...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH IN EACH FORM IS SOMEWHATPROBLEMATIC. NAM EVEN SHOWS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADINGEDGE OF THE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A MORE INTENSE BAND OFPRECIPITATION. GFS/NAM ALL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LOSS OF ICE INTHE CLOUD LAYER AS WE MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THUS ATRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY AS THE MAINPRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH ONHITTING WARNING CRITERIA WITH ANY ONE TYPE OF PRECIPITATIONTYPE...THE COMBINATION AND THREAT FOR ICING WILL LIKELY LEAD TOMAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDINGOFFICES HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WINTER STORMWARNING...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY.EXPECTING 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...WITH THEHIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.FURTHER NORTH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE INADDITION TO THE ICE.[/quote] La Crosse ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Des Moines goes with a WS warning for their northeastern CWA. It'll be interesting to see how LOT and DVN play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 FURTHER NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO IL/WI STATE LINE...STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE. BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN AND HOW MUCH FALLS AS RAIN...ALL BASED ON HOW FAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MOST LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING LAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING. LIKEWISE...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF A QUARTER INCH OF ICE...NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH AND GO INTO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY YET EITHER. AFD from LOT. EDIT: DVN keeps Winter Storm Watch. No upgrade at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Des Moines goes with a WS warning for their northeastern CWA. It'll be interesting to see how LOT and DVN play it. LOT is going with freezing rain advisory south and maintaining the watch farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 While the point & click of 0.2"-0.4" of ice here may be a *bit* bullish, it is certainly more reasonable than the last IP/ZR "event" that gave us essentially nothing. High precipitation rates tend to counteract ice accrual. But it seems that most of the over-running will be rather light, so that probably won't save us from an ice storm. As for the dry layer... it's hard to believe that with decent moisture advection at 850 mb (winds 25-40 kts over LOT's CWA at 21z, then 35-50 kts at 0z, at an angle of 45 deg to 90 deg to the gradient) that we will really have significant dryness problems. At least, as significant as Thursday night or the weekend event a week or two ago. Edit: Afternoon package dropped us to 0.1"-0.2". Much more confident in those numbers than the previous ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 LOT is going with freezing rain advisory south and maintaining the watch farther north. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 FURTHER NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO IL/WI STATE LINE...STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE. BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN AND HOW MUCH FALLS AS RAIN...ALL BASED ON HOW FAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MOST LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING LAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING. LIKEWISE...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF A QUARTER INCH OF ICE...NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH AND GO INTO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY YET EITHER. AFD from LOT. EDIT: DVN keeps Winter Storm Watch. No upgrade at this time. Must be waiting for the 00z data. Probably not a bad idea. Kind of expected a few changes since Des Moines tweaked their zones. Precip probably arrives there earlier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'm right at the edge of the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Potential Ice Storm.gif I'm right at the edge of the green. and we're right under the edge of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Snippet from DVN AFD. SUNDAY...STRONG WAA ALOFT MERGED WITH SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWS A TYPICAL 4-8 HOUR FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH A SE WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE UP TO AN HOUR OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET THAT WILL BECOME ALL FREEZING RAIN WITHIN AN HOUR. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING WITHIN THE FIRST 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER STARTING. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO LOW BUT DECENT CHANCE OF A SOME ICE WARNING CRITERIA MET ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR FOR LATER SHIFTS TO DECIDE. WIDESPREAD ONE TENTH TO NEAR .25 INCHES OF ICE IS EXPECTED. SOUTH 1/3 OF AREA OR MORE SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY 3 PM AND ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH BY 6 PM AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES. MOST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AT 5 OR 6 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'm in the blue... hopeful we end up with more snow/sleet ...not an ice fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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