Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cycloneville getting some love from the HPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 God I hope its all snow or sleet here... NWS shows a mixed bag here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cycloneville getting some love from the HPC... Haha I had to go check the actual HPC site to make sure you didn't photoshop that after what I did last week lolz. Interesting. Haven't had a chance to look at models yet, and gotta run. Will dig into this deeper later this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Get the generators gassed up across Northeast Iowa, Northern Illinois and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Get the generators gassed up across Northeast Iowa, Northern Illinois and Indiana. Gfs ice here almost whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gfs ice here almost whole time I've been pretty busy the past couple of days and haven't been following this threat too closely. Should maybe add southern MN and WI to the generator alert, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I've been pretty busy the past couple of days and haven't been following this threat too closely. Should maybe add southern MN and WI to the generator alert, huh? Maybe Nam says prolly not but gfs says yes. If it is liquid precip around here it will freeze fast ground and roads are very very cold and a low of 2 below tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Things in the last few runs here have been coming in warmer, considering the magnitude of the WAA, I would have to probably lean toward a warmer solution than not. Might mean less snow and more mixing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 LOT lays it out pretty well. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEWDAYS SHOWING SLIGHT COOLING WHEN PRECIP BEGINS BUT THEN RAPIDWARMING ALOFT. THIS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS PRECIP TYPE ALOFT STARTINGAS SNOW/SLEET...PERHAPS MAINLY SLEET THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALLRAIN AND WHILE THAT COULD STILL CHANGE...THE MOST CHALLENGING PARTOF THIS FORECAST AND AS NOTED A FEW DAYS AGO...SPECIFICS MAY NOTBE KNOWN UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...ARE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING AND LIKELYBECOMING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE AQUICK DROP IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS SATURDAY EVENING...THENSTEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THEMID/UPPER 20S BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS REALLY NO PUSH OFWARM/MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE20S...AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE PRECIP COULD MEAN SURFACE TEMPS MAYCOOL A FEW DEGREES. AN EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP WOULD ALSO LIKELYMEAN A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET OR MIXED SLEET/SNOW...WHICH WOULDFURTHER HINDER SURFACE TEMPS WARMING TO OR ABOVE FREEZING. ONCETHE WARM LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR FULL MELTING...PRECIP TYPE WILLCHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. ITS THE DURATION OF THIS EXPECTEDFREEZING RAIN THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...GIVEN SEVERALFACTORS ALREADY MENTIONED. IN ADDITION...THE GROUND WILL ALSO BECOLD AND EVEN IF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE AT/ABOVE FREEZING...ICE ACCUMULATION MAY STILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATEDSURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 NAM still much cooler aloft than the GFS Plus much further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I absolutely hate zr. AFD's in the area seem to think that WAA will ultimately win out but length and type of precip makes all the difference. Sunday afternoon and evening could be a real mess. Not buying Skilling's RPM snow model on this one, particularly if tonight's models show overrunning and a shallow cold layer persisting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 0z NAM looks like 4 precip types here. Snow at the onset the going over to sleet then freezing rain and finally rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 0z NAM looks like 4 precip types here. Snow at the onset the going over to sleet then freezing rain and finally rain. Looks like it has some trouble with the eastward progress of precip...hopefully not another dry layer question like today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The NAM is really eating a lot of potential precip with a low-level dry layer...again. Verified relatively well last night, so it makes me think it may again. But at the same time, does unexpected dryness help us evap cool and keep the surface below freezing longer than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The NAM is really eating a lot of potential precip with a low-level dry layer...again. Verified relatively well last night, so it makes me think it may again. But at the same time, does unexpected dryness help us evap cool and keep the surface below freezing longer than expected? Yes this would help hold the temps down, could really elevate the ice potential some if this does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks like mostly snow here per the NAM. Maybe a bit of a PL or ZR as the pcpn ends. Still 48 hours for this to screw up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Dry air issues are quickly replacing sleet as my most hated winter weather thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Dry air issues are quickly replacing sleet as my most hated winter weather thing. The thing we might have going for us this time is much stronger warm air advection aloft with a pretty respectable low level jet pointing toward the area. We didn't really have that here today so it makes me hopeful that the dry air issue won't be quite as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks like there could really be a potent ice storm along the I-94 corridor here in SWMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 RPM showing quite a bit of snow in WI and MI from this system. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=86369'>wgnsnowfall.jpg Lol...my mouth water at this! Another 8 inches!?! I am addicted to the white powder! More, more, more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks like mostly snow here per the NAM. Maybe a bit of a PL or ZR as the pcpn ends. Still 48 hours for this to screw up. "For this to screw up"? LOL. That is what has become of you after four crap winters for you. I really hope you guys get dumped on some time soon. I lived up in Muskoka for two years and LOVED the seasons there. Winter was AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 As expected, GFS says what dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 "For this to screw up"? LOL. That is what has become of you after four crap winters for you. I really hope you guys get dumped on some time soon. I lived up in Muskoka for two years and LOVED the seasons there. Winter was AWESOME. To be fair, 2010-11 had a few embedded screw jobs, but overall was a good winter. Muskoka's great. Might have to think about retirement there. You took a small step back in terms of snowfall I'd say by leaving Muskoka for Muskegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 To be fair, 2010-11 had a few embedded screw jobs, but overall was a good winter. Muskoka's great. Might have to think about retirement there. You took a small step back in terms of snowfall I'd say by leaving Muskoka for Muskegon. For sure! That is one reason I have I have had trouble adjusting. Muskoka is a True winter lover's heaven! I would have stayed there if I was Canadian. although, even both winters I was there, they lost most of the snowpack from a big thaw. They also have been affected this year too. Two feet or more of powder both winters...and winter activities galore. LOVED IT! Falls there were also gorgeous. By far the WORST time was late April through June...Black flies and Mosquitos make you want to rip your skin off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks like there could really be a potent ice storm along the I-94 corridor here in SWMI yep and then a heavy duty rainstorm per GFS atleast. I'll take the weaker euro. Severe wx 100s of miles away does zero for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 yep and then a heavy duty rainstorm per GFS atleast. I'll take the weaker euro. Severe wx 100s of miles away does zero for me. Meh! No heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 NAM would deliver a tenth or so of glazing here. GFS would give us almost 1/3" of glaze before changing to rain late in the day. RGEM looks somewhere in between. NAM did really well with the dry air mass last night, but with more of a southerly flow/gulf connection I'm not as apt to buy the ultra dry NAM at this point. Either way it continue to looks like we'll see no flakes with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Posted for Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The GGEM actually gives Chicago around 0.20" as snow before a changeover. The RGEM, only 0.06" or so. (Which is probably the right way to go.) Also ~ 0.08" ZR and increasing at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I could dig an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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